本文選題：地方政府 + 債務(wù)規(guī)模��； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：1994年中央對(duì)地方實(shí)施的不徹底的分稅制改革，使得中央政府和地方政府事權(quán)與財(cái)權(quán)不對(duì)等分配，最終導(dǎo)致地方政府尤其是部分縣市級(jí)政府相繼陷入財(cái)政困難。為了維持地方生存與發(fā)展，地方政府必須拓寬資金來源，加大債務(wù)融資力度。近些年，，中央政府為了落實(shí)振興經(jīng)濟(jì)或是抑制房?jī)r(jià)等宏觀調(diào)控措施，陸續(xù)推出的4萬億經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃、房產(chǎn)調(diào)控新政、結(jié)構(gòu)性減稅等政策，更是直接或間接地促使地方政府加大對(duì)外融資力度，以維持地方財(cái)政收支平衡、加快發(fā)展地方經(jīng)濟(jì)。 地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的快速膨脹伴隨著地方政府落后的債務(wù)管理方式，地方債務(wù)問題日益凸顯。但究竟什么樣的債務(wù)規(guī)模才為合適的，地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的安全邊際又在何處？本文首先回顧了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)于地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模問題研究的相關(guān)資料，并介紹了我國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)的成因及現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建了地方政府債務(wù)適度性模型，用來監(jiān)測(cè)和控制地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模。本文通過分析政府負(fù)債指標(biāo)，找出影響政府負(fù)債規(guī)模的變量。與此同時(shí)，通過多渠道收集2006-2011年C市地方政府負(fù)債規(guī)模資料以及其他相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，利用面板數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)，嘗試建立C市債務(wù)的回歸模型，對(duì)C市未來債務(wù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和分析。另外，本文通過建立地方政府債務(wù)適度性驗(yàn)證模型，來對(duì)所預(yù)測(cè)的C市結(jié)果進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)C市地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模已經(jīng)進(jìn)入重度預(yù)警區(qū)的范圍，并接近重度預(yù)警區(qū)的最高值，此結(jié)果須引起C市地方政府乃至中央政府的高度重視。最后，以C市為例，對(duì)處于不同預(yù)警區(qū)的地方政府對(duì)于債務(wù)規(guī)模的控制與管理給予不同的建議，以防范地方政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In 1994, the incomplete reform of the local tax system made the distribution of administrative power and financial power between the central government and the local government unequal, resulting in local governments, especially some county and municipal governments, falling into financial difficulties one after another. In order to maintain local survival and development, local governments must broaden the sources of funds and increase debt financing. In recent years, in order to implement macroeconomic control measures such as revitalizing the economy or curbing house prices, the central government has successively introduced four trillion economic stimulus plans, new housing control policies, structural tax cuts, and other policies. It also directly or indirectly urges the local government to increase the external financing, to maintain the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and to accelerate the development of local economy. With the rapid expansion of local government debt scale, the local debt problem is becoming increasingly prominent with the backward debt management of local government. But what kind of debt scale is appropriate, and where is the margin of safety of the local government debt scale? In this paper, the author first reviews the relevant data of domestic and foreign scholars on the scale of local government debt, and introduces the causes and present situation of local government debt in China. On this basis, a local government debt suitability model is constructed to monitor and control the scale of local government debt. By analyzing the government debt index, this paper finds out the variables that affect the scale of government debt. At the same time, through multi-channel collection of debt scale data and other relevant economic data of local government in C city from 2006 to 2011, using panel data technology, we try to establish a regression model of C city debt, and forecast and analyze the future debt of C city. In addition, through the establishment of local government debt suitability verification model, to predict the empirical analysis of the results of C City, found that the scale of local government debt in C City has entered the scope of the severe early warning area. It is close to the maximum value of the severe early warning area, and this result should be attached great importance to by the local government and even the central government in C city. Finally, taking C city as an example, the author gives different suggestions on the control and management of debt scale for local governments in different early warning areas in order to guard against the risk of local government debt.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

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本文編號(hào)：1877397