本文選題：地方政府債務(wù) + 風險治理　； 參考：《遼寧工程技術(shù)大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：地方政府債務(wù)風險治理是中國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域備受關(guān)注的焦點問題.在國家展開新一輪大規(guī)模地方債治理形勢下,針對中國地方政府債務(wù)透明度差、隱蔽性強、難以有效治理的現(xiàn)狀,基于利益相關(guān)者社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角,研究地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者系統(tǒng)耦合機理及相互作用關(guān)系,找出地方政府債務(wù)難以治理的“癥結(jié)”,并對癥下藥,是理論與實踐函待解決的問題.論文在利益相關(guān)者概念框架下,沿著“辨識分類—影響因素—形成機理—動態(tài)評價—治理措施”的邏輯主線對地方政府債務(wù)風險治理進行研究.得到如下研究成果：地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者辨識與影響度評價研究.界定地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者內(nèi)涵,根據(jù)地方政府債務(wù)舉債、用債、償債運行鏈條,識別債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者,通過對債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者影響度進行調(diào)查分析,將債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者劃分為核心型、次核心型、支持型、邊緣型四類,并驗證分類效果.地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系模型研究.運用社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析方法,得到地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者的測度指標,構(gòu)建債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系模型.從網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)凝聚性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)行動人對等性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)互惠性方面,對債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)特征進行分析,得到債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者系統(tǒng)耦合機理及相互作用關(guān)系,揭示地方政府債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)特征.利益相關(guān)者視角的地方政府債務(wù)風險成因及演化路徑研究.基于系統(tǒng)動力學和經(jīng)濟社會學理論,從債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者利益驅(qū)動層面、激勵約束層面、網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)層面、信息博弈層面分析債務(wù)風險生成機理,揭示債務(wù)風險形成的關(guān)鍵因素是：利益相關(guān)者經(jīng)濟利益驅(qū)動、激勵約束機制扭曲、網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)非協(xié)調(diào)互構(gòu)、信息博弈失衡；分析債務(wù)風險傳導關(guān)鍵因素,進而揭示地方政府債務(wù)風險傳導路徑及與宏觀風險的傳導效應.基于利益相關(guān)者的RS-SVM地方政府債務(wù)風險評估研究.根據(jù)利益相關(guān)者概念框架,構(gòu)建“舉債-用債-償債-影響”的債務(wù)風險評估指標體系；構(gòu)建RS-SVM地方政府債務(wù)風險評估模型,對遼寧14個地市債務(wù)風險進行實證評估及動態(tài)預測.對RS-SVM模型進行有效性和可推廣性評價.基于利益相關(guān)者的地方政府債務(wù)風險治理研究.根據(jù)地方政府債務(wù)風險形成機理,提出債務(wù)風險“輕警、中警、重警”分類治理模式；建立債務(wù)利益相關(guān)者“核心-關(guān)聯(lián)性”約束監(jiān)督機制,提出地方政府債務(wù)風險治理具體措施,為地方政府債務(wù)風險治理提供決策依據(jù).
[Abstract]:Local government debt risk management is the focus of attention in China's current economic field. Under the situation of a new round of large-scale local debt governance, aiming at the situation that the local government debt in China is poor in transparency, strong concealment and difficult to govern effectively, it is based on the perspective of social network of stakeholders. It is a problem to be solved in theory and practice to study the system coupling mechanism and interaction relationship of local government debt stakeholders, to find out the "crux" of local government debt that is difficult to manage, and to solve the problem. Under the frame of stakeholder concept, this paper studies the governance of local government debt risk along the logical main line of "identifying classification, influencing factors, forming mechanism, dynamic evaluation and governance measures". The research results are as follows: local government debt stakeholders identification and impact evaluation. Define the connotation of local government debt stakeholders, according to the local government debt borrowing, using debt, debt service running chain, identify debt stakeholders, through the debt stakeholders impact degree of investigation and analysis, The debt stakeholders are divided into four categories: core type, subcore type, support type and edge type, and the classification effect is verified. A study on the relationship between local government debt stakeholders and social networks. By using the method of social network analysis, the measurement index of local government debt stakeholders is obtained, and the network relationship model of debt stakeholders is constructed. From the aspects of network structure, network agglomeration, network operator reciprocity and network reciprocity, the network structure characteristics of debt stakeholders are analyzed, and the coupling mechanism and interaction relationship of debt stakeholders system are obtained. This paper reveals the network characteristics of local government debt stakeholders. Research on the causes and Evolution path of Local Government debt risk from the Perspective of stakeholders. Based on the theory of system dynamics and economic sociology, this paper analyzes the mechanism of debt risk generation from the level of interest driven by debt stakeholders, incentive and constraint level, network structure level, information game level. The key factors of debt risk formation are revealed as follows: stakeholders' economic interest driven, incentive and constraint mechanism distorted, network structure uncoordinated, information game imbalance, and debt risk transmission key factors analyzed. Then it reveals the transmission path of local government debt risk and its transmission effect with macro risk. Research on RS-SVM Local Government debt risk Assessment based on stakeholders. According to the concept framework of stakeholders, the index system of debt risk assessment is constructed, and the RS-SVM local government debt risk assessment model is constructed. The debt risk of 14 cities in Liaoning is evaluated and dynamically forecasted. The validity and extensibility of RS-SVM model are evaluated. Research on Governance of Local Government debt risk based on stakeholders. According to the formation mechanism of local government debt risk, this paper puts forward the classified governance model of debt risk, such as "light police, middle police, heavy alarm", and establishes the constraint supervision mechanism of debt stakeholders "core-relevance". The concrete measures of local government debt risk management are put forward to provide decision basis for local government debt risk management.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧工程技術(shù)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F812.5

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