本文選題：EVA + 上市證券公司�。� 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：相比商業(yè)銀行等其他金融機(jī)構(gòu),我國(guó)證券公司的成立要晚得多,但是證券公司的發(fā)展卻很迅猛,并且極大地推動(dòng)了證券市場(chǎng)的建設(shè)和融資方式比例的調(diào)整。由于經(jīng)營(yíng)對(duì)象的特殊性,證券公司面臨著巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在業(yè)務(wù)上也受到國(guó)外國(guó)內(nèi)金融同業(yè)者的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。因此基于證券公司的重要性和面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng),證券公司只有采用合適的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)方法,全面真實(shí)地評(píng)價(jià)自身經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī),找出制約業(yè)績(jī)提高的影響因素,不斷增強(qiáng)自身實(shí)力,才能保證自身和行業(yè)的良性發(fā)展。對(duì)于上市證券公司而言,業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)還對(duì)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)者、股東和投資者具有非常重要的意義,利益相關(guān)者的相互制衡會(huì)推動(dòng)現(xiàn)代公司治理的建設(shè)。 然而,我國(guó)的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)起步較晚,近年來(lái)國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)證券公司的業(yè)績(jī)研究方法多采用傳統(tǒng)的回歸方程、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)DEA方法；在研究?jī)?nèi)容上也多為單公司或者單方面影響因素,如股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)、公司治理、資本結(jié)構(gòu)等。這樣在方法和內(nèi)容上都很難真實(shí)完整的評(píng)價(jià)證券公司的業(yè)績(jī),因此得出的相關(guān)結(jié)論值得商榷。 基于以上原因,本文選擇上市證券公司為研究對(duì)象,利用實(shí)證方法對(duì)其進(jìn)行業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià),并對(duì)上市證券公司業(yè)績(jī)的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。 本文第一部分是研究背景和意義,在評(píng)述了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)之后,對(duì)文章寫(xiě)作內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了安排,并指出可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。 本文第二部分選擇并評(píng)析了四種應(yīng)用較多的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)方法：杜邦分析法、平衡計(jì)分卡法、因子分析法和EVA業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)法,經(jīng)過(guò)比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)EVA業(yè)績(jī)法存在的三大優(yōu)點(diǎn)能更好的結(jié)合上市證券公司實(shí)際,反映其業(yè)績(jī),即：考慮了股東財(cái)富,真實(shí)全面的反映了公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)；更加重視公司的可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力；起到較好的激勵(lì)作用。然后根據(jù)上市證券公司的特點(diǎn)建立了EVA指標(biāo)體系,包括EVA、EVA回報(bào)率和每股EVA,并對(duì)計(jì)算時(shí)涉及會(huì)計(jì)調(diào)整、稅后凈經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)、資本總額和加權(quán)平均資本成本率等進(jìn)行了確定。 第三部分是2010年我國(guó)上市證券公司業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)的實(shí)證分析,為了能準(zhǔn)確評(píng)價(jià)上市證券公司,本文盡可能多的選取了我國(guó)上市證券公司的樣本年報(bào),總共得到2010年的14家上市公司的樣本,然后利用EVA指標(biāo)體系及其計(jì)算公式評(píng)價(jià)了這些上市證券公司。結(jié)果表明2010年中信證券的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)最好,且優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯,國(guó)元證券排名墊底,并且計(jì)算結(jié)果為負(fù),不但沒(méi)能為股東創(chuàng)造財(cái)富,反而在毀滅股東投入的資本價(jià)值。本部分的結(jié)尾對(duì)EVA業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果和杜邦分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行了比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩種評(píng)價(jià)方法得出的結(jié)論并不完全一致,因?yàn)閮煞N評(píng)價(jià)方法在計(jì)算時(shí)所側(cè)重的指標(biāo)不同：EVA方法更加注重權(quán)益資本的價(jià)值創(chuàng)造能力,更能揭示深層次的因素。 第四部分是對(duì)上市證券公司業(yè)績(jī)影響因素的實(shí)證分析,影響上市證券公司業(yè)績(jī)的因素包括外部因素和內(nèi)部因素。外部因素是所有公司無(wú)法控制、都需要面對(duì)的客觀環(huán)境變量,包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、國(guó)家政策和國(guó)際因素。外部因素對(duì)我國(guó)上市證券公司EVA的影響途徑有兩個(gè)：一是直接影響證券公司本身,二是通過(guò)影響證券市場(chǎng)尤其是股票市場(chǎng)影響證券公司。本文分析了2005年至2010年外部因素的變化,然后選取宏源證券和中信證券并計(jì)算了兩家公司期間的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)外部因素對(duì)其業(yè)績(jī)影響顯著。內(nèi)部因素包括財(cái)務(wù)因素和非財(cái)務(wù)因素,本文選取了盈利能力、成本管理能力、股東權(quán)益、業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新能力、公司治理能力和人力資源等6個(gè)方面的8個(gè)指標(biāo)(凈資產(chǎn)收益率、總資產(chǎn)報(bào)酬率、成本控制能力、股東權(quán)益比率、傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)收入比、高管人均薪酬、前5大股東持股比例、碩士學(xué)位員工占比),并與EVA回報(bào)率(REVA)建立了回歸方程,就各指標(biāo)影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義做了說(shuō)明。為更加清晰的說(shuō)明內(nèi)部因素的影響,本部分結(jié)尾利用業(yè)績(jī)較好的中信證券和業(yè)績(jī)較差的太平洋證券進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。 第五部分是文章的結(jié)尾部分,總結(jié)了本文分析的結(jié)論,同時(shí)也指出了本文研究的局限性。首先是EVA方法本身的局限性：EVA方法需要對(duì)會(huì)計(jì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行大量的調(diào)整,這在一定程度上會(huì)增加其運(yùn)算復(fù)雜性和難度。為此,本文已盡可能的選取合適的會(huì)計(jì)調(diào)整保證計(jì)算精度。其次,由于受數(shù)據(jù)資料可得性限制,本文研究在數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源上存在局限性：在本文的寫(xiě)作過(guò)程中,各上市證券公司2011年經(jīng)審計(jì)的年報(bào)還未正式對(duì)外公布,本文只能利用了2010年的上市證券公司經(jīng)審計(jì)的年報(bào),這樣在研究的時(shí)間上相對(duì)滯后了一年,未能反映2011年的新情況。同時(shí)證券行業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)的影響因素眾多,本文所羅列的也僅是幾種最基本的外部和內(nèi)部因素,其它諸如公司規(guī)模、資產(chǎn)的管理能力、資本比例等因素都會(huì)影響上市證券公司的業(yè)績(jī),本文未能反映這些因素的影響。 本文在研究方法和內(nèi)容上力求突破,主要的可能創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)有： 1.在EVA方法和傳統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)比的時(shí)候,利用了理論和實(shí)證均對(duì)比的方法,在進(jìn)行實(shí)證對(duì)比時(shí),利用各證券公司的指標(biāo)排名情況做比較,消除了不同方法和概念之間的差異。 2.在分析上市證券公司EVA的影響因素時(shí),利用縱向比較與宏觀分析相結(jié)合的方式研究了外部因素對(duì)證券公司業(yè)績(jī)的影響；利用Eviews軟件對(duì)相關(guān)影響因素的指標(biāo)與REVA建立回歸方程的方式研究了內(nèi)部因素對(duì)證券公司業(yè)績(jī)的影響。當(dāng)然由于樣本的限制,對(duì)變量的選取有限,對(duì)方程的解釋也僅停留在經(jīng)濟(jì)意義層面。 本文對(duì)我國(guó)上市證券公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)只是一次嘗試,以期研究結(jié)論能夠?qū)φ麄�(gè)證券行業(yè)有一定參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Compared with other financial institutions such as commercial banks, the establishment of securities companies in China is much later, but the development of securities companies is very rapid, and it has greatly promoted the construction of the securities market and the adjustment of the proportion of financing methods. Therefore, based on the importance and the risks faced by the securities companies and the fierce competition, the securities companies only adopt the appropriate performance evaluation methods, fully and truly evaluate their own business performance, find the influencing factors that restrict the performance improvement, and strengthen their own strength to ensure the virtuous of their own and the industry. Development. For listed securities companies, performance evaluation is also of great significance to the operators, shareholders and investors of the company. The mutual balance of stakeholders will promote the construction of modern corporate governance.
However, the performance evaluation of our country started relatively late. In recent years, the traditional regression equation and data envelopment DEA method are used in the research methods for the performance of securities companies in China, and the research content is also a single company or unilateral influence factors, such as ownership structure, corporate governance, capital based structure and so on. So it is difficult to be true in the method and content. A complete evaluation of the performance of a securities firm is therefore questionable.
Based on the above reasons, this paper selects listed securities companies as the research object, uses empirical methods to evaluate their performance, and analyzes the influencing factors of the performance of listed securities companies.
The first part of this paper is the background and significance of the study. After reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, the article arranges the contents of the article and points out the possible innovations.
The second part of this paper selects and evaluates four kinds of performance evaluation methods which are more applied: DuPont analysis, balanced scorecard, factor analysis and EVA performance evaluation. After comparison, it is found that the three advantages of EVA performance method can better combine the listed securities companies' reality and reflect their performance, that is, the wealth of shareholders is considered and the real whole is considered. The surface reflects the performance of the company, pays more attention to the ability of the company's sustainable development, and plays a better incentive role. Then, the EVA index system is set up based on the characteristics of listed securities companies, including EVA, EVA return and EVA per share, and the accounting adjustment, net operating profit after tax, total capital and weighted average capital are involved in the calculation. The cost rate is determined.
The third part is an empirical analysis of the performance evaluation of listed securities companies in China in 2010. In order to evaluate the listed securities companies accurately, the sample annual report of listed securities companies in China is selected as much as possible, and the samples of 14 Listed Companies in 2010 are obtained. Then the EVA index system and its calculation formula are used to evaluate these listed companies. Securities company. The results show that in 2010, CITIC Securities had the best performance and obvious advantages. The national securities ranking was bottom, and the results were negative. Not only did it fail to create wealth for the shareholders, but destroyed the capital value of the shareholders. At the end of this part, the results of EVA performance evaluation and DuPont analysis were compared, and two found that the results of the DuPont analysis were compared. The conclusion of the evaluation method is not exactly the same, because the two evaluation methods are different in the calculation. The EVA method pays more attention to the value creation ability of the equity capital, and more can reveal the deep factors.
The fourth part is an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the performance of listed securities companies. The factors affecting the performance of listed securities companies include external factors and internal factors. External factors are the objective environment variables that all companies can not control, including macroeconomic, national policies and international factors. External factors are on the market of China. There are two ways of influencing the voucher company EVA: one is directly affecting the securities company itself, and the two is by affecting the securities market, especially the stock market. This paper analyzes the changes of the external factors from 2005 to 2010, then selects Hongyuan securities and CITIC Securities and calculates the performance of the two companies during the period, and finds out the external performance. Factors have significant impact on its performance. The internal factors include financial factors and non financial factors. This paper selects 8 indicators (net asset returns, total asset returns, cost control, shareholder equity ratio, equity ratio), and 6 indicators of profitability, cost management ability, shareholders' equity, business innovation ability, corporate governance capacity and human resources. The income ratio of the system, the per capita salary, the top 5 shareholding ratio, the master's degree employee ratio, and the return rate of the EVA (REVA) set up a regression equation to explain the economic significance of the impact of each index. In order to make a clearer explanation of the influence of internal factors, this part ends with the better performance of CITIC Securities and the poor performance. Pingyang securities were compared.
The fifth part is the end of the article, summarizes the conclusion of the analysis, and also points out the limitations of this study. First, the limitations of the EVA method itself: the EVA method needs a large amount of adjustment to the accounting project, which will increase its complexity and difficulty to a certain extent. Therefore, this article has been selected as possible. The appropriate accounting adjustment ensures the accuracy of the calculation. Secondly, due to the limitation of data availability, this paper studies the limitations of the data sources. In this paper, the annual reports of the listed securities companies in 2011 have not been officially announced. This paper can only use the annual audit annual report of the listed securities companies in 2010, which can only be used in this paper. There is a relative lag of one year in the study time, which fails to reflect the new situation in 2011. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the operating performance of the securities industry. This article lists only a few of the most basic external and internal factors, and other factors such as the size of the company, the management ability of the assets, the proportion of capital and so on, will affect the listed securities companies. Performance, this article fails to reflect the influence of these factors.
In this paper, we strive to break through the research methods and contents.
1. when comparing the EVA method with the traditional evaluation method, the comparison between the theory and the empirical method is used. In the case of empirical comparison, the comparison between the index ranking of various securities companies has been made to eliminate the differences between the different methods and concepts.
2. when analyzing the influencing factors of the listed securities company EVA, the influence of external factors on the performance of securities companies is studied by the combination of the longitudinal comparison and macro analysis. The influence of the internal factors on the performance of the securities companies is studied by using the Eviews software to establish the regression equation of the related factors and REVA. In terms of sample restriction, the selection of variables is limited, and the interpretation of equations is only at the economic level.
This paper is just an attempt to evaluate the performance of listed securities companies in China, so as to provide some reference for the whole securities industry.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275;F832.51;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1818797