本文選題：三角直覺模糊數(shù) + 可能性均值��； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,中小投資者占據(jù)了我國證券市場投資主體地位,他們在資金規(guī)模、研發(fā)實(shí)力、信息收集等方面都與機(jī)構(gòu)投資者無法比擬,屬于市場上的弱勢方。所以市場上長期盛行著盲目跟風(fēng)、追漲殺跌等非理性投資行為。針對投機(jī)氛圍異常濃厚這一現(xiàn)狀,前證監(jiān)會(huì)主席郭樹清自上任以來,曾六次發(fā)話倡導(dǎo)中小投資者建立價(jià)值投資、理性投資、長期投資的投資理念。國內(nèi)外關(guān)于證券投資價(jià)值的研究比比皆是,然而,適用于中小投資者的投資策略卻寥寥無幾。若要引導(dǎo)證券市場真正回歸理性,為中小投資者提供一種簡單易行的投資策略就必不可少。 本文首先結(jié)合公司戰(zhàn)略理論中的PEST分析、行業(yè)分析、公司基本面分析,先是定性分析影響企業(yè)發(fā)展的潛在因素。其次,針對三角直覺模糊數(shù)能夠很好地刻畫證券市場的復(fù)雜性、人類思維的模糊性,選擇以三角直覺模糊數(shù)形式表示決策信息,從而提出行業(yè)分析中的多屬性決策方法,以及個(gè)股選擇中的群決策方法。最后,選取三個(gè)常用的技術(shù)指標(biāo)分析證券目前股價(jià)水平,以及未來可能的趨勢走向。技術(shù)分析為投資者擇時(shí)提供了一種分析途徑,補(bǔ)充了基本面分析的不足。本文結(jié)合基本面分析和技術(shù)分析,全方位研究了上市公司的投資價(jià)值。具體研究成果可以概括為以下幾方面： 根據(jù)人們實(shí)際投資的決策流程,將投資分析分為三個(gè)層次：行業(yè)分析、個(gè)股分析、技術(shù)分析。首先,針對行業(yè)的外部環(huán)境進(jìn)行全面分析,確定五個(gè)主要影響指標(biāo)：政治與法律因素、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期、行業(yè)生命周期以及行業(yè)競爭力,利用這五個(gè)指標(biāo)構(gòu)建一級評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,再通過一級評價(jià)指標(biāo)的綜合評價(jià)值確定表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)的行業(yè)。其次,研究構(gòu)成公司內(nèi)部環(huán)境的主要因素,篩選出評估企業(yè)發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ闹笜?biāo)：公司管理層能力、企業(yè)競爭力、盈利能力、成長能力、償債能力,基于這些指標(biāo)構(gòu)建二級評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,從而確定最具投資價(jià)值的公司。最后,利用技術(shù)指標(biāo)分析上市公司目前以及未來可能的價(jià)格走勢,以幫助投資者確定最佳的入市時(shí)機(jī),保證投資收益最大化。 將可能性理論引入三角直覺模糊數(shù)中,發(fā)展了三角直覺模糊數(shù)的可能性均值、可能性均方差的概念。并在可能性均值的基礎(chǔ)上,給出了三角直覺模糊數(shù)距離的新定義。研究了屬性權(quán)重已知,且屬性值以三角直覺模糊數(shù)給出的多屬性決策問題。在實(shí)際決策問題中,定義了方案的三角模糊數(shù)正理想點(diǎn)和負(fù)理想點(diǎn)。最后利用TOPSIS的三角直覺模糊數(shù)多屬性決策方法進(jìn)行行業(yè)分析,最終結(jié)果表明在醫(yī)療保健、金融、基礎(chǔ)材料這三個(gè)行業(yè)當(dāng)中,醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)最具投資價(jià)值。 研究了屬性值為三角直覺模糊數(shù)、屬性權(quán)重完全未知且決策者的權(quán)重以語言變量形式給出的多屬性群決策問題。首先針對以語言變量形式給出的專家重要性,可利用直覺模糊集投票模型計(jì)算各專家的權(quán)重。其次,通過三角直覺模糊數(shù)的Minkowski距離信息熵方法,確定方案的屬性權(quán)重。再基于三角直覺模糊數(shù)理論和可能性理論,根據(jù)三角直覺模糊數(shù)的可能性均值、可能性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,給出了一種新的排序方法。最后,集結(jié)各專家權(quán)重和屬性權(quán)重向量,提出了一種基于可能性均值與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的群決策方法,并將它應(yīng)用于個(gè)股選擇案例中。實(shí)例分析結(jié)果表明,相對于九九久、南京醫(yī)藥和同仁堂,愛爾眼科可能更具投資潛力。 本文從多達(dá)上百種的技術(shù)指標(biāo)中,選取了三個(gè)較為常用的MACD指標(biāo)、RSI指標(biāo)和能量潮指標(biāo)OBV。分別介紹了它們的設(shè)計(jì)原理、運(yùn)用法則以及適用的情況。實(shí)踐證明,這三個(gè)指標(biāo)在一定程度上可以互補(bǔ),將它們結(jié)合在一起使用會(huì)使得預(yù)測股價(jià)走勢的效果更好。利用MACD、RSI及OBV指標(biāo)實(shí)證分析了愛爾眼科和同仁堂的價(jià)格走勢,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示無論對于短期投資者還是中長期投資者,目前都不是投資愛爾眼科的好時(shí)機(jī)。而對短期投資者而言,同仁堂目前是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的買入時(shí)機(jī)。
[Abstract]:At present, small and medium-sized investors occupy the main position of investment in China's securities market. They are incomparable to institutional investors in terms of capital size, R & D strength and information collection, which are the weak sides in the market. So the market has been prevalent in the market for a long time. In the present situation, since Guo Shuqing, the former chairman of the CSRC, six times since he took office, it has advocated the establishment of value investment, rational investment, and long-term investment philosophy of small and medium-sized investors. There are many researches on the value of securities investment at home and abroad. However, few investment strategies applicable to small and medium investors. It is essential to provide a simple and feasible investment strategy for small and medium investors.
This paper first combines the PEST analysis in the corporate strategy theory, the industry analysis and the corporate fundamentals analysis, first is the qualitative analysis of the potential factors that affect the development of the enterprise. Secondly, the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number can well describe the complexity of the securities market, the fuzziness of human thinking, and the choice of the decision information in the form of triangular intuitional fuzzy numbers. In this way, we put forward the multi attribute decision making method in the industry analysis and the group decision method in the choice of the stock. Finally, we select three common technical indexes to analyze the current stock price level and the possible trend in the future. Combined with fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the investment value of listed companies has been studied in all directions. The concrete research results can be summarized as follows:
According to the decision-making process of people's actual investment, the investment analysis is divided into three levels: industry analysis, stock analysis, and technical analysis. First, to make a comprehensive analysis of the external environment of the industry and determine the five main impact indicators: political and legal factors, economic factors, industry economic cycle, industry life cycle and industry competitiveness, profit The first level evaluation index system is constructed with these five indexes, and then the best performance industry is determined through the comprehensive evaluation value of the first grade evaluation index. Secondly, the main factors that constitute the internal environment of the company are studied, and the indicators for evaluating the development potential of the company are selected: the ability of the company management, the competitiveness of the enterprises, the profitability, the ability to grow, the solvency, and the ability to repay the debt. Based on these indicators, the two level evaluation index system is constructed to determine the most investment value companies. Finally, the current and possible future price trends of listed companies are analyzed by using technical indicators to help investors determine the best opportunity to enter the market and ensure the maximization of investment returns.
The possibility theory is introduced into the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, and the concept of the possibility mean and the possibility mean square of the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number is developed. On the basis of the possibility mean, a new definition of the distance of the trigonometric intuitional fuzzy number is given. The multi attribute decision given by the attribute weight is given and the attribute value is given by the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number. In the actual decision problem, the triangular fuzzy number of the scheme is defined as the positive ideal point and the negative ideal point. Finally, the TOPSIS triangle intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making method is used for industry analysis. The final result shows that in the three industries, health care, finance, and basic materials, the health care industry has the most investment value.
The problem of multi attribute group decision making in the form of language variables is studied by the attribute value is triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, the weight of attribute is completely unknown and the weight of decision maker is given in the form of language variable. Minkowski distance information entropy method is used to determine the attribute weight of the scheme. Based on the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number theory and the possibility theory, a new sort method is given based on the possibility mean of the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number and the standard deviation of the possibility. Finally, the weight of each expert and the attribute weight vector are aggregated, and a kind of probability mean is proposed. The group decision method with the standard deviation is applied to the case of a stock selection. The results of the case analysis show that the Nanjing medicine and Tongren hall may have more investment potential relative to the nine nine years old.
In this paper, three commonly used MACD indexes, RSI index and energy tide index OBV. are selected to introduce their design principles, application rules and applicable conditions. Practice has proved that these three indexes can be complementary to some extent, and the combination of them will make the prediction of stock price go. The effect is better. Using the MACD, RSI and OBV indicators, the price trend of El ophthalmology and Tongren hall is empirically analyzed. The empirical results show that both for short-term investors and medium and long term investors are not a good time to invest in El's Ophthalmology, but for short-term investors, it is a good time to buy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F832.51

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