本文選題：巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)　切入點(diǎn)：人民幣實(shí)際匯率　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以后,人民幣匯率以1993年為分界線呈現(xiàn)出了先貶后升的趨勢(shì),尤其是2005-2011年出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)七年的單邊升值態(tài)勢(shì)。當(dāng)前,市場(chǎng)對(duì)于人民幣匯率仍存在著較強(qiáng)的升值預(yù)期。這種升值預(yù)期主要來(lái)自于兩個(gè)方面：一方面是以美國(guó)為首的一些國(guó)家和國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)的外部升值壓力；另一方面是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)在推動(dòng)力。鑒于巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)正是反映此內(nèi)在動(dòng)因的重要理論,因此,文章選擇從巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)的視角來(lái)研究人民幣實(shí)際匯率的相關(guān)問(wèn)題。 首先,文章從巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)的簡(jiǎn)介出發(fā),揭示了其產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展的理論基礎(chǔ),概括總結(jié)了巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)的內(nèi)容、邏輯體系和主要結(jié)論。其次,文章選取了我國(guó)和美國(guó)1978-2010年長(zhǎng)達(dá)33年間的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析法檢驗(yàn)了巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)在我國(guó)的適用性,通過(guò)協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解等多種計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法最終得出了巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)在我國(guó)成立的結(jié)論。再次,根據(jù)巴拉薩-薩繆爾森假說(shuō)揭示的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與匯率變動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系,聯(lián)系我國(guó)當(dāng)前的實(shí)際情況,文章做出了人民幣匯率具有長(zhǎng)期升值趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)匯率升值的利弊進(jìn)行了詳盡地分析。最后,文章指出,面對(duì)人民幣匯率的長(zhǎng)期升值壓力,我國(guó)應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加快人民幣匯率制度改革,并對(duì)人民幣匯率制度改革的目標(biāo)、策略和配套措施提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化趨勢(shì)的加速、經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化程度的提高和中國(guó)開(kāi)放程度的不斷加深,人民幣匯率對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)外均衡的重要性日漸增強(qiáng),國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的各方面都與匯率有著緊密的聯(lián)系。此外,由于中國(guó)已成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,且貿(mào)易大國(guó)的地位日益穩(wěn)固,人民幣匯率的變動(dòng)也自然會(huì)牽動(dòng)全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的敏感神經(jīng)。匯率的波動(dòng)影響到經(jīng)濟(jì)的方方面面,如貿(mào)易收支、價(jià)格水平、資本流動(dòng)、外匯儲(chǔ)備、財(cái)政稅收、收入分配以及國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系等,關(guān)系到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體發(fā)展,因此對(duì)于匯率的研究具有十分重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate has shown a tendency of first depreciation and then rising with 1993 as the dividing line, especially the trend of unilateral appreciation for seven consecutive years from 2005 to 2011.At present, the market for the RMB exchange rate still has a strong appreciation expectations.This appreciation expectation mainly comes from two aspects: on the one hand, the external appreciation pressure of some countries and international institutions led by the United States; on the other hand, it is the internal driving force of sustained and rapid economic growth of our country.Since the Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis is an important theory reflecting this internal motivation, this paper chooses to study the relevant issues of RMB real exchange rate from the perspective of Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis.Firstly, from the brief introduction of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, this paper reveals the theoretical basis of its emergence and development, and summarizes the content, logic system and main conclusions of the Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis.Secondly, the paper selects the data of China and the United States from 1978 to 2010, and tests the applicability of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in China by empirical analysis. The pulse response function is tested by cointegration test.Some econometrics methods such as variance decomposition finally draw the conclusion that Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is established in China.Thirdly, according to the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate change revealed by Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis, and considering the current situation in China, this paper makes a prediction that the RMB exchange rate has a long-term appreciation trend.The advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate appreciation are analyzed in detail.Finally, the paper points out that in the face of the pressure of long-term appreciation of RMB exchange rate, China should further accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate system, and put forward corresponding policy suggestions on the goal, strategy and supporting measures of RMB exchange rate system reform.With the acceleration of the trend of economic globalization, the improvement of the degree of economic monetization and the deepening of China's opening up, the importance of RMB exchange rate to the internal and external equilibrium of China's economy is increasing day by day.All aspects of the national economy are closely related to the exchange rate.Moreover, as China has become the world's second-largest economy and a trading power is becoming increasingly strong, a move in the yuan's exchange rate naturally affects the sensitive nerves of the world's major economies.The fluctuation of exchange rate affects all aspects of the economy, such as trade balance, price level, capital flow, foreign exchange reserve, finance and taxation, income distribution and international economic relations.Therefore, the study of exchange rate is of great significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.52;F224

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