本文選題：利率市場(chǎng)化　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣政策　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是一種機(jī)理和過(guò)程,它描述了如何通過(guò)貨幣政策引導(dǎo)利率,進(jìn)而由利率影響微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的行為活動(dòng),最終對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。我國(guó)的利率市場(chǎng)化改革仍然在有條不紊地進(jìn)行,并已經(jīng)取得了初步的成果,而隨著其不斷推進(jìn),利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的作用也開始凸顯。因此,研究利率市場(chǎng)化改革背景下我國(guó)利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制效應(yīng),不僅豐富了理論,也具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文將在傳統(tǒng)的凱恩斯利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革仍在進(jìn)行的這一現(xiàn)狀,研究我國(guó)“雙軌制”利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的效應(yīng)是否顯著,以及利率市場(chǎng)化改革過(guò)程中“雙軌制”利率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的變化。在分析阻滯利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的因素的基礎(chǔ)上,提出相應(yīng)的建議以推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革和更好地發(fā)揮利率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)。 首先,由于本文是在利率市場(chǎng)化改革的背景下進(jìn)行研究,筆者綜述了利率市場(chǎng)化的理論支撐,包括金融抑制理論、金融深化理論以及之后的金融約束理論。在利率市場(chǎng)化相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文同時(shí)簡(jiǎn)要介紹了我國(guó)不同市場(chǎng)內(nèi)利率市場(chǎng)化改革的進(jìn)程,具體包括銀行間同業(yè)拆借市場(chǎng)利率、銀行間債券市場(chǎng)利率以及存貸款利率的市場(chǎng)化改革情況。 其次,本文以凱恩斯理論為依據(jù),結(jié)合我國(guó)現(xiàn)行利率體系特點(diǎn),提出了我國(guó)的貨幣政策利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。傳統(tǒng)的凱恩斯利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制理論包含了一些前提條件,其要求商品市場(chǎng)和資本市場(chǎng)兩者的功能比較完善。然而我國(guó)的資本市場(chǎng)和商品市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)化程度并不高,導(dǎo)致這些利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制理論在我國(guó)的應(yīng)用仍然受到一些局限。在總結(jié)和分析了我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的利率體系及其特點(diǎn)之后,本文提出了管制利率和市場(chǎng)利率同時(shí)運(yùn)行的“雙軌制”利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。 第三,基于我國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革尚未完成,管制利率和市場(chǎng)利率雙軌運(yùn)行的這一現(xiàn)狀,本文創(chuàng)建一個(gè)同時(shí)包含管制利率和市場(chǎng)利率的VAR模型。通過(guò)格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解分析等實(shí)證研究方法,對(duì)我國(guó)“雙軌制”利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了研究。研究表明,由于利率管制依然存在,企業(yè)投資對(duì)利率反應(yīng)不敏感,商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)營(yíng)行為,金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展不完善等原因,整個(gè)利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)并不暢通。然而,隨著利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),管制利率和市場(chǎng)利率的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)出有規(guī)律的動(dòng)態(tài)特征。一方面,管制利率調(diào)整對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)逐漸降低了；另一方面,市場(chǎng)利率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的傳導(dǎo)效果趨于更強(qiáng)勁、更持續(xù)。這也意味著我國(guó)實(shí)行的利率市場(chǎng)化改革已經(jīng)獲得了一定的顯著成果。 最后,本文總結(jié)了主要結(jié)論,并在其基礎(chǔ)上提出一些政策建議：一是加快推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革；二是提高實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)利率的敏感性；三是進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和完善金融市場(chǎng)；四是完善央行的利率調(diào)控機(jī)制等。
[Abstract]:The mechanism of interest rate transmission is a mechanism and process. It describes how to guide interest rate through monetary policy and then influence the behavior of microeconomic subject by interest rate. The reform of interest rate marketization in our country is still going on methodically, and has made preliminary achievements, and with its continuous advancement, the role of interest rate transmission mechanism is also beginning to highlight. The study on the effect of interest rate conduction mechanism under the background of interest rate marketization reform not only enriches the theory, but also has certain practical significance. This paper will be based on the traditional Keynesian interest rate transmission mechanism theory. According to the current situation that the interest rate marketization reform is still going on in our country, this paper studies whether the effect of the interest rate transmission mechanism of the "two-track system" in our country is significant. On the basis of analyzing the factors that block the interest rate conduction mechanism, the corresponding suggestions are put forward in order to promote the interest rate marketization reform and give better play to the interest rate conduction effect. First of all, because this article is in the interest rate marketization reform background carries on the research, the author has summarized the interest rate marketization theory support, including the financial suppression theory, Based on the relevant theories of interest rate marketization, this paper also briefly introduces the process of interest rate marketization reform in different markets in China, including the interbank lending market interest rate. Market reform of interbank bond market interest rate and deposit and loan interest rate. Secondly, on the basis of Keynes' theory and combining with the characteristics of China's current interest rate system, this paper puts forward the interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. The traditional Keynesian interest rate transmission mechanism theory contains some preconditions. The function of commodity market and capital market is relatively perfect. However, the degree of marketization of capital market and commodity market in China is not high. As a result, the application of these theories in China is still limited. After summarizing and analyzing the current interest rate system and its characteristics in China, This paper puts forward a "double track" interest rate transmission mechanism in which the regulated interest rate and the market interest rate operate simultaneously. Thirdly, based on the fact that China's interest rate marketization reform has not been completed and the regulatory interest rate and the market interest rate are running on a dual track, this paper establishes a VAR model which includes both regulated interest rate and market interest rate. The Granger causality test is adopted. Impulse response analysis, variance decomposition analysis and other empirical research methods are used to study the effect of interest rate conduction mechanism of "two-track system" in China. The results show that because interest rate regulation still exists, enterprise investment is insensitive to interest rate response. The conduction effect of the whole interest rate transmission mechanism is not smooth due to the management behavior of commercial banks and the imperfect development of the financial market. However, with the advancement of the interest rate marketization process, The conduction effect of regulatory interest rate and market interest rate shows a regular dynamic characteristic. On the one hand, the conduction effect of regulating interest rate adjustment on economic fluctuation decreases gradually; on the other hand, The transmission effect of market interest rate changes on economic fluctuation tends to be stronger and more sustainable, which means that the market-oriented interest rate reform in China has achieved some remarkable results. Finally, this paper summarizes the main conclusions and puts forward some policy suggestions on the basis of which: first, accelerate the reform of interest rate marketization; second, enhance the sensitivity of the real economy to interest rate; third, further develop and perfect the financial market; Fourth, improve the central bank's interest rate control mechanism and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.51

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