本文選題：官員晉升壓力　切入點：金融市場化　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：地方政府在對于房價上漲的作用受到了各界廣泛關(guān)注，以GDP增長為主的官員激勵機制被認(rèn)為導(dǎo)致我國很多經(jīng)濟問題的根本原因，金融業(yè)發(fā)展和市場化程度的提高對于轉(zhuǎn)型期國家各個行業(yè)的發(fā)展都會產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響，本文將這三者結(jié)合起來，研究在現(xiàn)行激勵體制下，官員晉升壓力、金融市場化水平對于房價上漲的作用，從制度的角度來解釋房價上漲，從而深化對于地方政府在房地產(chǎn)市場上行為的理解。 本文建立了住宅市場的存量調(diào)整模型，并推導(dǎo)住宅價格上漲與基本面因素以及政府干預(yù)的關(guān)系，，再據(jù)此建立計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)模型。在實證研究部分，我們以我國34個大中城市為研究目標(biāo)，參考其他學(xué)者的研究，構(gòu)造了晉升壓力指數(shù)和金融市場化指數(shù)，并通過固定影響的面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸分析了晉升壓力和金融市場化對于住宅價格增長的影響。我們還按照地方政府對于經(jīng)濟資源控制力的不同，將樣本等分為政府控制力強的組和政府控制力弱的組，分析不同組內(nèi)晉升壓力和金融市場化程度對于住宅價格增長影響的差別。最后，我們用不同的方法構(gòu)造晉升壓力指數(shù)，用來檢驗我們結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性。 通過研究，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)晉升壓力對于住宅價格增長有顯著的正向影響，金融市場化程度對于住宅價格增長的影響呈倒U型，且拐點在金融市場化程度指數(shù)為5.5左右。相比于政府控制力弱的城市，在政府資源控制力強的城市中，晉升壓力對于住宅價格增長的促進作用更明顯，金融市場化對于住宅價格增長的制約作用更明顯。我們的研究結(jié)果說明現(xiàn)行的官員考核機制會導(dǎo)致地方政府干預(yù)房地產(chǎn)市場，地方政府對于經(jīng)濟資源的控制為這種干預(yù)創(chuàng)造了條件，金融市場化水平的提高會對房價增長有抑制作用。
[Abstract]:The role of local governments in the rise of house prices has received extensive attention from all walks of life. The official incentive mechanism, which is dominated by the growth of GDP, is considered to be the root cause of many economic problems in our country. The development of the financial industry and the improvement of the degree of marketization will have a profound impact on the development of various industries in the countries in transition. This paper combines these three to study the pressure of official promotion under the current incentive system. The effect of financial marketization on the rise of house prices is explained from the perspective of institution, thus deepening the understanding of the behavior of local governments in the real estate market. In this paper, the stock adjustment model of housing market is established, and the relationship between housing price rise and fundamental factors as well as government intervention is deduced. Based on this model, an econometric model is established. Taking 34 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research goal and referring to the studies of other scholars, we have constructed the promotion stress index and the financial marketization index. And through the fixed impact panel data regression analysis, we analyzed the impact of promotion pressure and financial marketization on housing price growth. We also according to the local government control of economic resources is different, The samples are divided into groups with strong government control and those with weak government control. The difference between the promotion pressure and the degree of financial marketization in different groups on housing price growth is analyzed. Finally, we use different methods to construct the promotion pressure index. To test the robustness of our results. Through the research, we find that the promotion pressure has a significant positive impact on the housing price growth, and the financial marketization degree has a negative U-shaped impact on the housing price growth. And the inflection point is about 5.5 in the financial marketization degree index. Compared with the cities with weak government control, the promotion pressure plays a more important role in promoting housing price growth in cities with strong government resource control. The effect of financial marketization on housing price growth is even more obvious. Our research results show that the current official assessment mechanism will lead local governments to intervene in the real estate market. The control of economic resources by local governments creates conditions for this kind of intervention, and the improvement of financial marketization level will restrain the growth of house prices.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.5;F299.23;D630;F224

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