本文選題：融資　切入點(diǎn)：可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《華東交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的瞬息萬(wàn)變，財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的重要性不斷凸顯，成為企業(yè)發(fā)展中必備的防御措施。理論界，學(xué)者們?yōu)樨?cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建積極鉆研；實(shí)踐中，企業(yè)家對(duì)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的應(yīng)用努力摸索。然而，發(fā)展至今的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究仍不盡人意：學(xué)者們大都致力于短期預(yù)警模型的建立，研究模型只限于危機(jī)和正常的兩種狀態(tài)判斷。鑒于此，本文結(jié)合可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)理論研究財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)，從融資視角下建立可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)危機(jī)的中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)警模型，以期模型具有更早的預(yù)測(cè)提前期和更好的判別準(zhǔn)確率。 文章完成的主要工作有：（1）首先就選題背景和意義進(jìn)行分析，對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行回顧、歸納和評(píng)述，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和研究思路。（2）介紹了融資、可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)、財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)、財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的概念和相關(guān)理論，對(duì)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)與財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)關(guān)系、融資與可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行回顧，為后文的理論分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。（3）在財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)與財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)危機(jī)進(jìn)行界定，在對(duì)融資與財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系定性、定量分析的基礎(chǔ)上證明融資視角下建立可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的可行性。然后在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)之上，引入融資變量、介紹模型選擇和研究方法。（4）實(shí)證分析，選取滬深A(yù)股2010年首次被ST或*ST的上市公司31家，，控制資產(chǎn)和行業(yè)按照1:4的比例選取配對(duì)公司，在配對(duì)公司中按照扣除非經(jīng)常損益后每股收益連續(xù)三年為正的原則篩選良好樣本和介于良好、危機(jī)之間灰色樣本。最終形成良好、灰色、危機(jī)各30家的三個(gè)樣本，按照初選融資變量，分別選取其2004年、2005年、2006年和2007年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)按照描述性分析、相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)、判別分析的步驟建立模型，經(jīng)過交互驗(yàn)證和回代檢驗(yàn)得出模型具有較好的預(yù)測(cè)效果。 結(jié)果表明，融資視角下企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型具有較好的預(yù)測(cè)效果，并且T-6年預(yù)測(cè)效果最佳，可見模型更適用于中長(zhǎng)期危機(jī)預(yù)警。
[Abstract]:With the rapid changes of the world economic situation, the importance of financial crisis warning is becoming more and more important, and it has become a necessary defense measure in the development of enterprises. Entrepreneurs try to explore the application of crisis early warning model. However, the research on financial crisis early warning is still unsatisfactory: scholars mostly focus on the establishment of short-term early warning model. The research model is limited to crisis and normal state judgment. In view of this, this paper combines the theory of sustainable growth to study financial crisis, and establishes a medium- and long-term early warning model of sustainable growth crisis from the perspective of financing. It is expected that the model has earlier prediction lead time and better discriminant accuracy. The main work accomplished in this paper is as follows: firstly, the background and significance of the topic are analyzed, the current situation of financial crisis early warning at home and abroad is reviewed, summarized and commented, and on this basis, the research contents and research ideas of this paper are put forward. The concepts and related theories of sustainable growth, financial crisis and financial crisis warning are reviewed, and the research status of the relationship between sustainable growth and financial crisis, financing and sustainable growth is reviewed. It lays a theoretical foundation for the following theoretical analysis. It defines the financial sustainable growth crisis on the basis of the research on the relationship between financial crisis and financial sustainable growth, and defines the relationship between financing and financial sustainable growth. On the basis of quantitative analysis, this paper proves the feasibility of establishing a crisis early warning model of sustainable growth from the perspective of financing. Then, on the basis of theoretical analysis, it introduces financing variables, and introduces model selection and research method. In 2010, 31 listed companies with Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares were selected for the first time by St or St, and control assets and industries were selected according to the ratio of 1: 4 to select matching companies. In a matching company, according to the principle of positive earnings per share for three consecutive years after deducting non-recurrent gains and losses, good samples and grey samples between good and bad crises were screened. According to the primary financing variables, the financial data of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2006 were selected to establish models according to the steps of descriptive analysis, correlation test and discriminant analysis. It is concluded that the model has good prediction effect after interactive verification and retrospect test. The results show that the financial sustainable growth crisis early warning model has good prediction effect, and T-6 year forecast effect is the best, so the model is more suitable for medium and long term crisis early warning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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