本文選題：趨勢(shì)技術(shù)分析　切入點(diǎn)：市場(chǎng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自從外匯市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代，個(gè)人投機(jī)者能夠隨時(shí)隨地參與外匯市場(chǎng)，獲得與大機(jī)構(gòu)相對(duì)一致的價(jià)格。外匯市場(chǎng)可以做空、做多，對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)投資渠道少的我國(guó)個(gè)人投機(jī)者來說，是一個(gè)比較好的選擇。相對(duì)于大機(jī)構(gòu)，個(gè)人投機(jī)者在信息獲取方面和個(gè)人心理控制方面存在缺陷，，這是個(gè)人投機(jī)者交易虧損的主要原因。 本文從怎么處理好個(gè)人投機(jī)者在信息獲取和個(gè)人心理控制存在的兩個(gè)缺陷出發(fā)，運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)技術(shù)分析理論和工具，建立一個(gè)關(guān)于外匯投機(jī)交易的策略，選取國(guó)際外匯市場(chǎng)1992年——2012年歐元兌美元的外匯交易行情為樣本，對(duì)這個(gè)交易策略進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，得出個(gè)人投機(jī)者根據(jù)趨勢(shì)技術(shù)分析理論可以實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定獲利的結(jié)論。 市場(chǎng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖是市場(chǎng)參與者對(duì)基本經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)的心理反應(yīng)。價(jià)格是在關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)的信息和市場(chǎng)參與者的心理的共同作用下形成的。在經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)參與者的心理不一致的時(shí)候，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)震蕩走勢(shì)；在經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)參與者的心理一致的時(shí)候，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)趨勢(shì)的形式。當(dāng)市場(chǎng)處于震蕩時(shí)，個(gè)人投機(jī)者是很難實(shí)現(xiàn)交易獲利的。而當(dāng)市場(chǎng)處于趨勢(shì)走勢(shì)時(shí)，基本經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)參與者的心理預(yù)期一致，通過市場(chǎng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖預(yù)測(cè)未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)是可行的，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)測(cè)未來價(jià)格的目的。本文設(shè)計(jì)的交易策略就是利用趨勢(shì)技術(shù)分析和相關(guān)工具避開震蕩行情，捕捉趨勢(shì)行情，從而彌補(bǔ)個(gè)人投機(jī)者在信息獲取方面的不足，在外匯市場(chǎng)中占得先機(jī)。 本文采用14周均線、35周均線的交叉確立周線趨勢(shì)，從而確立基本經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)。在周線趨勢(shì)確立后，可以預(yù)期未來一段時(shí)間的價(jià)格波動(dòng)將順應(yīng)這個(gè)趨勢(shì)。本文把順應(yīng)趨勢(shì)的波段稱之為主波段，逆向趨勢(shì)的波段稱之為調(diào)整波段，主波段和調(diào)整波段之間的轉(zhuǎn)換通過特殊三根價(jià)格線來體現(xiàn)。交易策略的核心思想就是在順應(yīng)周線趨勢(shì)的前提下，捕捉順應(yīng)周線趨勢(shì)的主波段。
[Abstract]:Since the foreign exchange market has entered the Internet era, individual speculators have been able to participate in the foreign exchange market at any time, anywhere and at a relatively consistent price with large institutions. Foreign exchange markets can be short and long. For individual speculators in China who have few domestic investment channels, it is a relatively good choice. Compared with large institutions, individual speculators have defects in obtaining information and controlling personal psychology. This is the main reason for individual speculators' losses. Based on how to deal with the two defects of individual speculators in information acquisition and personal psychological control, this paper uses trend technology analysis theory and tools to establish a strategy on foreign exchange speculative trading. Taking the foreign exchange market of the international foreign exchange market from 1992 to 2012 as a sample, this paper tests the trading strategy and draws the conclusion that individual speculators can achieve stable profits according to the theory of trend technology analysis. The market price chart is the psychological reaction of market participants to basic economic trends. Prices are formed under the joint action of information on economic trends and the psychology of market participants. When their psychology is inconsistent, Market prices are volatile; when the economic trend is consistent with the psychology of market participants, market prices take the form of a trend. When the market is in shock, It is difficult for individual speculators to make a profit from trading. When the market is in a trend trend, the basic economic trend is in line with the psychological expectations of market participants. It is feasible to predict future economic trends through market price charts. In order to achieve the purpose of predicting future prices, the trading strategy designed in this paper is to use trend technology analysis and related tools to avoid shocks, catch trend prices, and make up for the deficiency of individual speculators in obtaining information. Take the lead in the foreign exchange market. In this paper, the crossing of the 14-week mean line and the 35-week average line is used to establish the trend of the cycle line, so as to establish the basic economic trend. It can be expected that price fluctuations will conform to this trend for some time to come. In this paper, we call the band of compliance with the trend as the main band, and the band with the reverse trend as the adjustment band. The conversion between the main band and the adjusted band is reflected by three special price lines. The core idea of the trading strategy is to capture the main band of the trend under the premise of complying with the trend of the cycle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F831.52

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