本文選題：期貨市場　切入點(diǎn)：早秈稻期貨　出處：《南昌大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)銷大國,也是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口大國。其中,稻谷生產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量占全球的三分之一。中國約有三分之二的人口以大米為主要口糧,稻谷的價格在糧食及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格體系中有重要的影響。但是,稻谷現(xiàn)貨市場缺乏有效的市場價格形成機(jī)制�，F(xiàn)行的最低收購價格的政策制約了稻谷價格體系的發(fā)展,稻谷現(xiàn)貨價格未能準(zhǔn)確反映市場供求。 從發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來看,期貨市場的價格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能能有效解決糧食價格市場化過程中存在的一些問題。因此,期貨市場的價格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能在完善糧食市場體系和彌補(bǔ)現(xiàn)貨市場缺陷有其天然的優(yōu)勢。 2009年4月20日,早秈稻期貨在鄭州商品交易所上市交易。這對完善我國糧食和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場體系具有重要而深遠(yuǎn)的意義。早秈稻期貨市場為稻谷種植者提供了重要的價格依據(jù)來調(diào)整生產(chǎn),也是稻谷加工和經(jīng)營企業(yè)規(guī)避市場風(fēng)險的工具。早秈稻期貨市場和現(xiàn)貨市場相互影響,逐漸形成自身體系的定價機(jī)制,使得稻谷市場不斷發(fā)育。截止2013年10月,早秈稻期貨上市交易將近5年,國內(nèi)對早秈稻期貨市場價格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能鮮有研究。深入研究早秈稻期貨價格對現(xiàn)貨價格的影響,剖析早秈稻期貨市場是否具備發(fā)現(xiàn)的功能,進(jìn)而完善早秈稻期貨合約和稻谷現(xiàn)貨價格形成機(jī)制,具有理論價值和實(shí)踐意義。 本文從國內(nèi)稻谷產(chǎn)業(yè)狀況分析開始,在第二部分主要分析了我國稻谷產(chǎn)業(yè)狀況和稻谷價格機(jī)制,第三部分則用統(tǒng)計分析描述了早秈稻期貨市場運(yùn)行狀況,并在第四部分用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)對早燦稻期貨市場的價格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過分析,本文得出以下結(jié)論：早秈稻期貨市場運(yùn)行基本正常,但有繼續(xù)完善的空間；交易所可以根據(jù)目前運(yùn)行中的問題對早秈稻期貨合約在期貨倉單持倉成本和交割成本上進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化；早秈稻期貨市場具有完備的對現(xiàn)貨價格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能,早秈稻期貨價格對現(xiàn)貨價格具有引導(dǎo)作用；可以通過早秈稻期貨市場對稻谷現(xiàn)有最低收購價政策進(jìn)行完善,“先收購,后補(bǔ)貼”的“二次結(jié)算”收購政策可以彌補(bǔ)現(xiàn)有政策的不足,完善糧農(nóng)的利益保護(hù)政策,保障國家糧食安全。
[Abstract]:China is a big producer and importer of agricultural products. Among them, rice production and consumption account for 1/3 of the world. About 2/3 people in China rely on rice as the main food rations. The price of rice plays an important role in the price system of grain and agricultural products. However, the spot market of rice lacks an effective market price formation mechanism. The current policy of minimum purchase price restricts the development of rice price system. The spot price of rice can not accurately reflect the market supply and demand. From the experience of developed countries, the price discovery function of futures market can effectively solve some problems in the process of grain price marketization. The price discovery function of futures market has its natural advantages in perfecting grain market system and making up for spot market defects. April 20th 2009, Early indica rice futures are listed and traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. This is of great and far-reaching significance to improving the futures market system for grain and agricultural products in China. The early indica rice futures market provides an important price basis for rice growers to adjust their production. It is also a tool for rice processing and management enterprises to avoid market risks. The early indica rice futures market and the spot market interact with each other, and gradually form their own pricing mechanism, which makes the rice market continue to develop. As of October 2013, Early indica rice futures have been listed and traded for nearly five years, but the price discovery function of early indica rice futures market has not been studied in China. The influence of early indica rice futures prices on spot prices is studied in depth, and whether the early indica rice futures market has the function of discovery is analyzed. It is of theoretical value and practical significance to perfect the early indica rice futures contract and the spot price formation mechanism of rice. This paper begins with the analysis of the rice industry in China. In the second part, the paper mainly analyzes the rice industry and the price mechanism of rice in China. The third part describes the operation of the early indica rice futures market by statistical analysis. In the 4th part, we use cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the price discovery function of early rice futures market. Through the analysis, we draw the following conclusions: the early indica rice futures market is running normally. However, there is room for further improvement; exchanges can further optimize early indica rice futures contracts in terms of futures warehouse receipt holding costs and delivery costs according to current operational problems; early indica rice futures markets have a complete spot price discovery function. Early indica rice futures prices have a guiding effect on spot prices; through the early indica rice futures market, the existing minimum purchase price policy for rice can be improved, "first purchase," The purchase policy of "secondary settlement" of post-subsidy can make up for the deficiency of the existing policy, perfect the policy of protecting the interests of food and agriculture, and ensure the national food security.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F724.5

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 張有望;李劍;;糧食期貨與現(xiàn)貨市場價格波動溢出效應(yīng)[J];華南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2017年01期

2 李亞男;胡培松;王莉;陳正行;;早秈稻的品質(zhì)特性及其加工適應(yīng)性研究進(jìn)展[J];食品與機(jī)械;2015年06期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 梅小弟;常德米粉原料適應(yīng)性及生產(chǎn)工藝研究[D];中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué);2016年

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本文編號：1563851