本文選題：銀行上市公司　切入點：市盈率　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)學(xué)院》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：金融是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的核心,我國的金融體系以銀行業(yè)為主導(dǎo),銀行業(yè)在整個國民經(jīng)濟體系中也占據(jù)著十分重要的地位。隨著我國資本市場的發(fā)展,在國家相關(guān)政策的鼓勵和指導(dǎo)下,我國商業(yè)銀行加快了上市步伐,2010年以中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行股改上市為標(biāo)志,我國五家大型商業(yè)銀行和大多數(shù)的股份制商業(yè)銀行都已經(jīng)登陸資本市場,上市銀行在我國銀行體系中的代表性也大大增強。 無論是在歐美發(fā)達國家的資本市場還是如我國這樣的新興資本市場,市盈率指標(biāo)都很受人關(guān)注,它是市場預(yù)期和企業(yè)業(yè)績表現(xiàn)比較完美的結(jié)合,能夠幫助投資者更為科學(xué)地判斷股票的投資價值。銀行業(yè)上市公司作為A股市場的權(quán)重板塊,其走勢和市場表現(xiàn)對于A股市場有著很大的影響,銀行業(yè)上市公司平均市盈率與上海A股市場平均市盈率變化趨勢基本一致;2009年以來,銀行業(yè)上市公司市盈率絕對值低于市場整體水平情況受到了廣泛的關(guān)注,圍繞著銀行股是否被低估也展開了激烈的討論。但綜合來說,目前的研究多是從某一個方面出發(fā),對于銀行類上市公司市盈率的研究缺乏整體性和系統(tǒng)性,也并沒有進行深入的研究。因此,在總結(jié)以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文利用我國上市銀行公司的市盈率和相關(guān)影響因素指標(biāo)的數(shù)據(jù),來深入系統(tǒng)地分析哪些因素導(dǎo)致了銀行業(yè)上市公司市盈率的變化,并進一步利用計量方法來發(fā)現(xiàn)在影響銀行上市公司市盈率的因素中,哪些因素的影響作用更為重要。 本文的研究共可分為六個部分:第一部分闡述了文章的研究背景和理論意義;第二部分介紹了市盈率的概念以及文中要用到的相關(guān)理論;第三部分介紹了我國銀行上市公司的概括以及對銀行上市公司平均市盈率和各銀行市盈率進行了簡要的描述;第四部分是市盈率影響因素的理論分析,從銀行業(yè)經(jīng)營業(yè)績、銀行業(yè)特殊性和政府監(jiān)管、股票市場波動和投資者行為與偏好三個方面對影響銀行上市公司市盈率的因素進行了分析,為下文的實證分析檢驗提供了理論基礎(chǔ);文中的第五部分是實證檢驗,在第四部分理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,將影響銀行上市公司市盈率的因素指標(biāo)分為五類,分別利用上市時間較長的3家銀行和全部12家銀行上市公司的面板數(shù)據(jù)和相關(guān)因素指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),利用面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸、面板數(shù)據(jù)協(xié)整檢驗和FMOLS估計方法進行了分析檢驗,對理論分析結(jié)果進行驗證;第六部分是本文的結(jié)論,在理論分析和實證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了本文的研究結(jié)論。 我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)上海A股市場平均市盈率(SZPE)、每股收益增長率(EPSG)、流通股本(LNCSTOCK)、資本充足率(CAR)和換手率(TURNOVER)五個指標(biāo)對銀行業(yè)上市公司市盈率水平有顯著的影響作用。在這些影響因素中,上海A股市場整體市盈率水平即股票市場整體估值水平對銀行業(yè)估值有著最為顯著的影響,這可能與銀行市值在整個市場中所占比重較大有關(guān);影響顯著作用其次的是反映銀行上市公司業(yè)績的每股收益增長率和反映投資者情緒和偏好的換手率指標(biāo),這兩個指標(biāo)與市盈率水平呈現(xiàn)同方向的變化,即銀行業(yè)績的增長和投資者更為喜歡購買銀行業(yè)公司的股票都有助于銀行上市公司市盈率水平的提升;在12家銀行上市公司的面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸中發(fā)現(xiàn)了銀行流通股本的大小與其市盈率水平呈現(xiàn)反向的變化,而在3家銀行的回歸中股本大小的影響作用不太顯著,可能是由于最初選擇的3家銀行都是全國性股份制銀行,股本規(guī)模的差別不大,而12家銀行中既有如工商銀行等大型商業(yè)銀行,也有南京銀行等城市商業(yè)銀行,使得股本大小的影響作用顯現(xiàn)出來;在數(shù)據(jù)回歸中還發(fā)現(xiàn)反映政府監(jiān)管因素的資本充足率指標(biāo)對銀行上市公司市盈率水平變化有所影響,資本充足率是銀行的資產(chǎn)對其風(fēng)險的比率,其高低體現(xiàn)了銀行應(yīng)對風(fēng)險能力的大小,充足的資本有助于銀行應(yīng)對經(jīng)營中遇到的各種風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy, the financial system of our country was dominated by the banking industry, the banking industry also occupies a very important position in the whole national economy. With the development of China's capital market, the relevant national policies to encourage and guide, China's commercial banks to speed up the pace of the market, in 2010 Agricultural Bank of Chinese listed as a symbol of China's big five commercial banks and most of the joint-stock commercial banks have landed in the capital market, the listed banks in the representative of China's banking system is also greatly enhanced.
Whether in the developed countries such as China's capital market is still emerging capital markets, the price earnings ratio is very popular, it is the combination of market expectation and enterprise performance more perfect, can help investors more scientifically judge the investment value of stocks. The banking industry listed companies as the weight plates of A stock market the trend of the market and have great influence on A stock market, listed companies in the banking industry average price earnings ratio is consistent with the Shanghai A stock market average price earnings ratio trend; since 2009, the listed banking earnings absolute value lower than the overall level of market situation has aroused wide attention around the banking stocks are undervalued has also launched a fierce discussion. But in general, the current research is starting from a certain aspect, for the study of earnings of listed banks lack of integrity And systematic, and no in-depth study. Therefore, on the basis of the previous studies, this paper use data and related factors affect the listed bank corporate earnings, to analyze systematically the factors which cause the change of price earnings ratio of Listed Companies in the banking industry, and further use of econometric method found in the influencing factors of price earnings ratio of Listed Companies in the bank, the effect factors which is more important.
This paper can be divided into six parts: the first part describes the research background and theoretical significance; the second part introduces the relevant theories of earnings and will be used in this paper; the third part of the listed commercial banks in China and the general of the average price earnings ratio of listed companies and banks bank earnings a brief description; fourth part is the theoretical analysis on Influence Factors of earnings, from banking business performance, the features of banking and government regulation, the three aspects of the stock market volatility and investor behavior preference and analyzes the factors influence the bank earnings of listed companies, and provides a theoretical basis for the following empirical test and analysis; the fifth part is the empirical test, based on the fourth part of the theoretical analysis on the influence factors of bank earnings will be listed companies are divided into five categories, divided beli Using the panel data of 3 banks listed a long time and all 12 banks listed companies and related factors of index data, using panel data regression, Panel Data Cointegration test and FMOLS method to analyze and test, to verify the results of theoretical analysis; the sixth part is the conclusion of this paper, based on theoretical analysis and empirical research the last, this paper put forward the research conclusion.
Our study found that Shanghai A stock market average price earnings ratio (SZPE), earnings per share growth rate (EPSG), the flow of capital (LNCSTOCK), the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and turnover rate (TURNOVER) five index of listed banking earnings have significant effect. Among these factors. Shanghai A stock market overall level of earnings that the stock market valuation of the overall level has the most significant impact on bank valuation, which may be related to the market value of banks in the market for a large proportion; significant role followed by the bank to reflect the performance of listed companies earnings per share growth rate and reflect investor sentiment and preference the exchange rate index, the two index and earnings levels showed the same direction change, namely bank growth performance and investors more love to buy banking stocks will help banks price earnings ratio of listed companies To enhance the level of bank; circulation of capital size and earnings levels showed reverse changes were found in the panel data of 12 listed companies in the return of the bank, and the effect of equity in the regression of 3 banks in size was not obvious, may be due to the initial selection of 3 banks are national joint-stock banks the size of equity, little difference, and has 12 banks such as industrial and commercial bank and other large commercial banks, there are Bank of Nanjing City Commercial Bank, the effect of equity size appeared; the data regression also found that the factor which reflects the government regulation of capital adequacy ratio index of listed companies impact on bank earnings levels somewhat, the capital adequacy ratio is the ratio of bank assets to its risk, it can embody the ability to cope with risks of bank size, capital helps the banks to deal with the business in All kinds of risks.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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