本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)外均衡與人民幣均衡匯率　出處：《復(fù)旦大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外均衡 均衡匯率 匯率調(diào)整 協(xié)整分析

【摘要】：本文首先對中國經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)外失衡現(xiàn)狀進行了分析,認為中國的內(nèi)外失衡本質(zhì)上是源白外部失衡的內(nèi)部貨幣供給失衡,即在資本管制和貨幣錯配下的外部順差對國內(nèi)貨幣供給結(jié)構(gòu)的沖擊。因此國內(nèi)均衡的一大目標是控制貨幣供給進而通貨膨脹。同時,根據(jù)中國國情保增長也作為內(nèi)部均衡的重要目標,而維持一定程度的經(jīng)常賬戶失衡對實現(xiàn)這一目標有重要意義。匯率將發(fā)揮其杠桿屬性成為實現(xiàn)這兩個目標的政策工具。 之后本文分析了匯率與經(jīng)常賬戶以及國內(nèi)貨幣供給之間的關(guān)系,提出人民幣匯率對維系一定程度合意的經(jīng)常賬戶順差將發(fā)揮作用；同時本文基于費雪方程式,推導(dǎo)了人民幣匯率對國內(nèi)通貨膨脹率的調(diào)節(jié)機制。而前者為中國的外部均衡目標,后者為中國的內(nèi)部均衡目標。 接下來本文基于上述機制對現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟進行實證檢驗,結(jié)果表明相關(guān)變量之間是長期均衡的,匯率與外部均衡目標(合意的經(jīng)常賬戶占GDP比重)的長期均衡(協(xié)整)關(guān)系如下：CAGDPSAt=0.94×PPPt-0.52×IRPt-1.43×WECt+0.11 其中CAGDPSAt為經(jīng)常賬戶占GDP比重(季調(diào)),PPPt為購買力評價形式的人民幣匯率,IRPt為利率平價,WECt為世界經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出周期。 同時,在使用人民幣的購買力平價形式之前,我們計算了美元兌人民幣雙邊名義匯率的PPP,發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣匯率自1996年三季度至2007年四季度符合相對購買力平價形式,2008年1季度至今符合絕對購買力平價形式。 匯率與內(nèi)部均衡目標(通貨膨脹率)的長期均衡(協(xié)整)關(guān)系如下：RMBt=1.25×CPIt-0.33×IRPt+0.001 其中RMBt為人民幣名義匯率同比升值幅度,CPIt為國內(nèi)消費者價格指數(shù)同比增幅,IRPt為利率平價。 最后本文根據(jù)匯率在上述內(nèi)外均衡機制中的作用,估算了相應(yīng)的匯率錯配并計算了對應(yīng)的均衡匯率水平。結(jié)果顯示人民幣除2008年金融危機前一段時間以及2011年至今存在一定超過均衡水平的升值幅度外基本處于均衡水平。
[Abstract]:This paper first analyzes the present situation of internal and external imbalances in China ' s economy , believes that China ' s internal and external imbalances are essentially the internal monetary supply imbalance of the external imbalance of the source and white , that is , the impact of the external surplus on the domestic money supply structure under the capital control and the currency mismatch . The goal of domestic equilibrium is to control the supply of money and inflation . At the same time , the balance of the current account balance is of great significance to the achievement of this goal . The exchange rate will exert its leverage attribute to be the policy tool to realize these two objectives . After analyzing the relationship between exchange rate and current account and domestic money supply , this paper puts forward that RMB exchange rate will play a role in maintaining a certain degree of common account surplus . At the same time , based on Fisher ' s equation , the adjustment mechanism of RMB exchange rate on domestic inflation rate is derived . The former is the external equilibrium goal of China , which is the internal equilibrium goal of China . Then , based on the above - mentioned mechanism , this paper empirically tests the real economy . The results show that the long - term equilibrium between the relevant variables and the long - term equilibrium ( co - integration ) relationship between the exchange rate and the external equilibrium goal ( the common current account for GDP ) is as follows : CAGDPSAt = 0.94 脳 PPPt - 0.52 脳 IRPt - 1.43 脳 WECt + 0.11 Among them , CAGDPSAt is the regular account accounting for GDP ( quarterly ) , PPPt is the exchange rate of the purchasing power evaluation form , IRPt is the interest rate flat rate , and WECt is the world economic output period . At the same time , we calculated PPP against RMB bilateral nominal exchange rate before using the purchasing power parity form of RMB , and found that RMB exchange rate was in the form of relative purchasing power parity in the third quarter of 1996 to fourth quarter of 2007 . In the first quarter of 2008 , it was in the form of absolute purchasing power parity . The long - term equilibrium ( co - integration ) relationship between the exchange rate and the internal equilibrium goal ( inflation rate ) is as follows : RMBt = 1.25 脳 CPIt - 0.33 脳 IRPt + 0.001 Among them , RMB t is the nominal exchange rate of RMB on the basis of the year - on - year appreciation of RMB , CPIt is the year - on - year increase of domestic consumer price index , and IRPt is the interest rate parity . At last , according to the role of the exchange rate in the above - mentioned internal and external equilibrium mechanism , the corresponding exchange rate mismatch is estimated and the corresponding equilibrium exchange rate level is calculated . The results show that the RMB has been basically at the equilibrium level except for some time before the 2008 financial crisis and in 2011 to date .

【學位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.52

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