本文選題：突發(fā)事件 + 應(yīng)急決策�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著信息化、工業(yè)化的迅速發(fā)展,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)日益繁榮,而社會(huì)的飛速發(fā)展是一把雙刃劍,一方面大大提高了人民的生活水平,另一方面也使我們的生活更加依賴資源,社會(huì)的各個(gè)功能系統(tǒng)緊密連接,呈現(xiàn)復(fù)雜巨系統(tǒng)的典型特征。這種情況下,突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生也容易對(duì)社會(huì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境和人民的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全產(chǎn)生更大的影響。近年來(lái),非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件時(shí)有發(fā)生,隨著社會(huì)的發(fā)展其復(fù)雜度也不斷增加,各種社會(huì)治安、自然環(huán)境災(zāi)害、安全事故、衛(wèi)生事件等領(lǐng)域的突發(fā)事件,造成的危害也日益增強(qiáng),災(zāi)害數(shù)量也急劇增加、危害程度越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。這些現(xiàn)象使如何對(duì)突發(fā)事件進(jìn)行有效的應(yīng)對(duì)成為社會(huì)研究的熱點(diǎn),其中應(yīng)急決策中資源的配置活動(dòng)作為突發(fā)事件應(yīng)對(duì)的重要保障,也成為應(yīng)急管理研究領(lǐng)域的核心問(wèn)題之一。突發(fā)事件的資源配置是一個(gè)多資源點(diǎn)、多約束、多需求點(diǎn)、多目標(biāo)、多運(yùn)輸工具,同時(shí)具有信息動(dòng)態(tài)變化和資源共享性的復(fù)雜問(wèn)題。非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后,怎么利用好現(xiàn)有資源,作出對(duì)突發(fā)事件的最快、最好的響應(yīng),保證應(yīng)急物資快速到位,對(duì)救援工作的順利開展是有力的保障。由于突發(fā)事件應(yīng)對(duì)過(guò)程中通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)物資稀缺、時(shí)間緊迫的情況,在這種情況下如何更好地進(jìn)行應(yīng)急資源的配置,也成為能否對(duì)突發(fā)事件進(jìn)行有效應(yīng)對(duì)的關(guān)鍵所在。突發(fā)事件應(yīng)對(duì)中,在進(jìn)行情景分析和問(wèn)題識(shí)別后,最重要的就是如何高效地利用應(yīng)急資源,達(dá)到抑制、減輕或消除事件影響的目的。本文在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外突發(fā)事件中資源配置活動(dòng)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合相關(guān)理論和方法,對(duì)應(yīng)急資源配置活動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析,提出了由與應(yīng)急決策資源配置決策相關(guān)的決策環(huán)境、常規(guī)決策結(jié)果、應(yīng)急資源配置決策主體、資源配置方案、決策工具、活動(dòng)結(jié)果共同組成的應(yīng)急資源配置模型,并對(duì)各個(gè)要素進(jìn)行了深入的研究。同時(shí)提煉了應(yīng)急資源配置決策過(guò)程中涉及到的應(yīng)急資源協(xié)同特征,并進(jìn)行了深入分析。在所提模型的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮資源配置的效用、成本和公平性,提出了應(yīng)急資源配置的優(yōu)化模型,給出了算法的求解步驟,為應(yīng)急資源配置模型的實(shí)際運(yùn)用提供了參考。本文以突發(fā)事件中應(yīng)急決策資源配置活動(dòng)為研究對(duì)象,分析資源配置活動(dòng)的本質(zhì)和特征,建立描述資源配置活動(dòng)中涉及到的各個(gè)要素的一般模型,為制定規(guī)范、有效、全面的資源配置決策提供參考。并從決策方案優(yōu)化的角度,提出應(yīng)急資源配置的優(yōu)化模型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of information technology and industrialization, and the increasing prosperity of social economy, the rapid development of society is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it has greatly improved the living standards of the people, on the other hand, it has also made our lives more dependent on resources. Each functional system of the society is closely connected and presents the typical characteristics of the complex giant system. In this case, the occurrence of unexpected events is also easy to have a greater impact on the society, ecological environment and people's life and property safety. In recent years, unconventional emergencies have occurred from time to time. With the development of society, the complexity of these emergencies has also been increasing. The hazards caused by emergencies in the fields of social security, natural environment disasters, safety accidents, health incidents, etc., are also increasing day by day. The number of disasters has also increased sharply, and the degree of harm is becoming more and more serious. These phenomena make how to deal with emergencies effectively becomes the focus of social research. The allocation of resources in emergency decision-making as an important guarantee of emergency response has also become one of the core issues in the field of emergency management research. The resource allocation of unexpected events is a complex problem with multi-resource points, multi-constraints, multi-demand points, multi-objectives and multi-means of transportation, as well as the dynamic changes of information and the sharing of resources. How to make good use of existing resources, make the fastest and best response to emergencies, ensure that emergency materials are in place quickly, is a powerful guarantee for the smooth development of rescue work. Due to the shortage of materials and time in the process of emergency response, how to allocate emergency resources better becomes the key to deal with emergencies effectively. After scene analysis and problem identification, the most important thing in emergency response is how to use emergency resources efficiently to suppress, mitigate or eliminate the impact of the event. Based on the research of resource allocation activities in emergency events at home and abroad and combining with relevant theories and methods, this paper analyzes the emergency resource allocation activities, and puts forward a decision environment related to emergency decision resource allocation. The emergency resource allocation model is composed of conventional decision result, emergency resource allocation decision body, resource allocation scheme, decision tool and activity result. At the same time, the collaborative characteristics of emergency resources in the process of emergency resource allocation decision are refined and analyzed deeply. On the basis of the proposed model, considering the utility, cost and fairness of resource allocation, the optimization model of emergency resource allocation is proposed, and the solving steps of the algorithm are given, which provides a reference for the practical application of the emergency resource allocation model. This paper takes the emergency decision resource allocation activities as the research object, analyzes the nature and characteristics of the resource allocation activities, establishes a general model to describe the elements involved in the resource allocation activities. The comprehensive resource allocation decision provides the reference. The optimization model of emergency resource allocation is put forward from the point of view of decision-making scheme optimization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D63

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本文編號(hào)：1948622