本文選題：多屬性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策 + 模糊事故樹　； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：工程施工中越來越頻繁發(fā)生的突發(fā)事件造成了大量的人員傷亡和巨大的社會(huì)財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,引起了社會(huì)各界人士的廣泛關(guān)注。為了最大程度上減少事故造成的損失,需要在事故發(fā)生的最初階段評(píng)估和選擇最佳應(yīng)急方案。由于突發(fā)事件帶來的影響往往是多方面的,很難直接判定其造成的損失,需要決策者從多個(gè)方面考慮采取不同應(yīng)急方案后事故可能造成的損失程度。因此,本論文根據(jù)具體工程施工中突發(fā)事件的特點(diǎn),結(jié)合往年相似的案例,建立關(guān)于應(yīng)急響應(yīng)的多屬性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策模型,并從決策信息的確定和對(duì)方案的綜合評(píng)估兩個(gè)方面展開研究。由于突發(fā)事件具有動(dòng)態(tài)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的特征,本文運(yùn)用模糊事故樹分析法得到模型中的情景概率。為了使模型中的屬性權(quán)重更加合理,本文首先運(yùn)用層次分析法求解評(píng)估準(zhǔn)則的主觀權(quán)重向量,并采用熵值法確定準(zhǔn)則的客觀權(quán)重向量,然后采用離差最大化方法將各屬性的主觀權(quán)重和客觀權(quán)重相結(jié)合,從而確定屬性的組合權(quán)重。為了考慮在決策分析過程中決策者的心理行為,運(yùn)用前景理論方法評(píng)估各方案,并采用端點(diǎn)法比較各方案的評(píng)估值,進(jìn)而對(duì)應(yīng)急方案排序。最后,本文以起重作業(yè)和高空作業(yè)同時(shí)操作時(shí)起重機(jī)械撞擊到高排架的事故為例,采用提出的混合評(píng)估方法評(píng)估各應(yīng)急方案,證明了該方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:The sudden events that occur more and more frequently in the engineering construction cause a large number of casualties and huge loss of social property, which has aroused the widespread concern of the people from all walks of life. In order to minimize the loss caused by the accident, it is necessary to evaluate and select the best emergency plan in the initial stage of the accident. It is difficult to directly judge the losses caused by emergencies because the impact of emergencies is often various. It is necessary for decision makers to consider the extent of losses caused by accidents after adopting different emergency plans from many aspects. Therefore, according to the characteristics of unexpected events in the construction of specific projects, combined with similar cases in previous years, this paper establishes a multi-attribute risk decision-making model for emergency response. And from the decision information and the comprehensive evaluation of the two aspects of the study. Due to the dynamic and risk characteristics of unexpected events, this paper uses fuzzy accident tree analysis to obtain the scenario probability in the model. In order to make the attribute weight in the model more reasonable, this paper first uses AHP to solve the subjective weight vector of the evaluation criterion, and uses the entropy method to determine the objective weight vector of the criterion. Then the subjective weight and objective weight of each attribute are combined with the deviation maximization method to determine the combined weight of attributes. In order to consider the psychological behavior of decision makers in the process of decision analysis, the prospect theory method is used to evaluate each scheme, and the endpoint method is used to compare the evaluation value of each scheme, and then the emergency plan is ranked. Finally, taking the accident of crane colliding into high bent frame as an example, this paper uses the mixed evaluation method to evaluate the emergency schemes, which proves the feasibility of this method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU71;D035

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