【摘要】：20世紀(jì)末的信息革命推動(dòng)了現(xiàn)代網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的廣泛應(yīng)用和普及，尤其是近年來(lái)，中國(guó)網(wǎng)民數(shù)量逐年遞增，網(wǎng)民借助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)進(jìn)行利益訴求表達(dá)、情緒宣泄、公共事務(wù)參與的積極性和頻率愈來(lái)愈高，，國(guó)家在社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型期間凸現(xiàn)的各類(lèi)社會(huì)矛盾也往往在第一時(shí)間聚焦于網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)，形成強(qiáng)大的輿論場(chǎng)。與此同時(shí)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)強(qiáng)大的開(kāi)放、快速傳播和互動(dòng)特性使得一些原本在傳統(tǒng)傳播渠道和言論環(huán)境下簡(jiǎn)單可控的輿情事件轉(zhuǎn)化為群體性突發(fā)事件，引發(fā)社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)，這給公共危機(jī)管理帶來(lái)了極大的壓力和挑戰(zhàn)。在這種背景下，利用現(xiàn)有技術(shù)手段和學(xué)科方法對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情分析方法和技術(shù)進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新進(jìn)而為危機(jī)預(yù)警提供技術(shù)保障，對(duì)維護(hù)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定、推進(jìn)社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先通過(guò)大范圍文獻(xiàn)分析，總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)及案例推理相關(guān)研究的發(fā)展研究現(xiàn)狀，當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)方面的研究還處于理論研究階段，實(shí)踐層面的研究成果較少，而案例推理方法的研究已具備相當(dāng)數(shù)量的理論和實(shí)踐成果，屬于應(yīng)用比較廣泛和成功的；其次解釋基于案例推理方法的發(fā)展背景、概念內(nèi)涵、應(yīng)用范圍及相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)，為將其應(yīng)用于網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)預(yù)警做準(zhǔn)備；再次，以網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)案例庫(kù)為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建包括知識(shí)表示、案例檢索、推理模型等方面的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)預(yù)警的案例推理模型，將案例推理方法應(yīng)用于網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)的預(yù)警；最后，以一組案例庫(kù)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)構(gòu)建的案例推理模型進(jìn)行推算檢驗(yàn)，說(shuō)明案例推理預(yù)警模型的實(shí)際運(yùn)算過(guò)程，并借助運(yùn)算結(jié)果的數(shù)據(jù)分析說(shuō)明案例推理方法應(yīng)用的適用性，期望對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情危機(jī)預(yù)警機(jī)制供理論與實(shí)踐支持，同時(shí)也為公共危機(jī)管理的發(fā)展做出探索。
文內(nèi)圖片：
圖片說(shuō)明：麥尼哲中國(guó)危機(jī)管理資源網(wǎng)（來(lái)源：www.crisismanagement.com.cn）
[Abstract]:The information revolution at the end of the 20th century promoted the wide application and popularization of modern network technology, especially in recent years, the number of Chinese netizens has increased year by year, netizens use the Internet platform to express their interests, catharsis, the enthusiasm and frequency of public affairs participation is getting higher and higher, and all kinds of social contradictions highlighted by the state during the period of social transformation often focus on the network platform at the first time, forming a strong public opinion field. At the same time, with the powerful openness, rapid communication and interaction of the Internet, some simple and controllable public opinion events in the traditional communication channels and speech environment are transformed into group emergencies, which leads to the social network public opinion crisis, which brings great pressure and challenges to the public crisis management. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to innovate the analysis methods and technologies of network public opinion by using the existing technical means and subject methods to provide technical guarantee for crisis early warning, which is of great practical significance to maintain social stability and promote social transformation. First of all, through a wide range of literature analysis, this paper summarizes the development and research status of network public opinion crisis and case-based reasoning at home and abroad. At present, the domestic research on network public opinion crisis is still in the theoretical research stage, the practical research results are less, and the research of case-based reasoning method has a considerable number of theoretical and practical results, which belongs to the more extensive and successful application. Secondly, it explains the development background, concept connotation, application scope and related theoretical basis of case-based reasoning method, and prepares for its application to network public opinion crisis early warning. Thirdly, based on the network public opinion crisis case base, the case-based reasoning model of network public opinion crisis early warning including knowledge representation, case retrieval, reasoning model and so on is constructed, and the case-based reasoning method is applied to the early warning of network public opinion crisis. Finally, based on a set of case base data, this paper calculates and tests the constructed case-based reasoning model, explains the actual operation process of the case-based reasoning early warning model, and explains the applicability of the application of the case-based reasoning method with the help of the data analysis of the operation results. It is expected to provide theoretical and practical support for the network public opinion crisis early warning mechanism, and at the same time to explore the development of public crisis management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TP393.09

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