【摘要】：研究話題熱度預(yù)測問題對于網(wǎng)絡(luò)廣告?zhèn)鞑バ?yīng)最大化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿論引導(dǎo)與控制等具有重要意義.首先,根據(jù)用戶關(guān)系及話題因素計(jì)算用戶影響力,進(jìn)而定義話題影響力.然后,基于老化理論并考慮話題影響力和話題相關(guān)微博數(shù)定義話題能量值,量化話題熱度.最后,提出基于小波變換與差分自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型的微博話題熱度預(yù)測方法,以此預(yù)測話題熱度(能量值)及話題能量峰值.實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,文中方法可有效預(yù)測話題熱度及峰值,具有較低的殘差和遺漏率.
[Abstract]:The research of topic heat prediction is of great significance to maximize the effect of network advertising communication and guide and control network public opinion. First, the user influence is calculated according to the user relationship and topic factors, and then the topic influence is defined. Then, based on aging theory and considering topic influence and topic correlation Weibo number, we define topic energy value and quantify topic heat. Finally, based on wavelet transform and differential autoregressive moving average model, Weibo topic heat prediction method is proposed to predict topic heat (energy value) and topic energy peak value. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the heat and peak of the topic, and has low residual and omission rates.
【作者單位】： 福州大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)學(xué)院;福州大學(xué)福建省網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)算與智能信息處理重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(No.61300104,61370210,61103175) 福建省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(No.2013J01232) 福建省教育廳重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(No.JK2012003) 福建省科技創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)項(xiàng)目(No.2009J1007) 福建省科技廳產(chǎn)學(xué)重大項(xiàng)目(No.2014H6014)資助
【分類號】：TP393.092

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本文編號：2343872