【摘要】：在城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目管理中,項(xiàng)目前期管理占據(jù)著重要位置。由于城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目普遍具有投資規(guī)模大、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)、技術(shù)要求要等特點(diǎn),因此在項(xiàng)目正式施工前,其面臨著較多不確定性因素,如果在項(xiàng)目前期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估中,未對(duì)這些隱含的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行充分的識(shí)別和分析,那么在項(xiàng)目后續(xù)階段中,這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素很可能就會(huì)發(fā)生,進(jìn)而影響軌道交通項(xiàng)目預(yù)期目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn),甚至導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目的失敗。在城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目的前期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中,充分考慮項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況,科學(xué)識(shí)別、分析和評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目實(shí)施與后續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)過程中存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并制定相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施,盡可能地降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率、減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生帶來的損失,對(duì)順利實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)和預(yù)期運(yùn)營(yíng)具有重要意義。本文希望通過研究軌道交通項(xiàng)目前期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,制定有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施,來保障城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境效益目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。論文以項(xiàng)目前期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為研究主題,以重慶軌道交通五號(hào)線項(xiàng)目為具體研究案例,在總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外專家研究成果和梳理相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合重慶軌道交通五號(hào)線項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況,識(shí)別了該項(xiàng)目主要存在政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、組織管理、施工管理以及不可抗力等風(fēng)險(xiǎn),然后主要運(yùn)用層次分析法對(duì)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),得出該項(xiàng)目排在前三位的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分別是經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、組織管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文有針對(duì)性地提出了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施,以期為保證重慶軌道交通五號(hào)線項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施提供科學(xué)指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:In the urban rail transit project management, the pre-project management occupies an important position. Because of the characteristics of large scale of investment, long construction period and technical requirements, urban rail transit projects are faced with many uncertain factors before the formal construction of the project, if in the early stage of the project risk assessment, If these hidden risk factors are not fully identified and analyzed, these risk factors will probably occur in the subsequent stage of the project, which will affect the realization of the expected objectives of the rail transit project and even lead to the failure of the project. In the early stage risk management of the urban rail transit project, the actual situation of the project is fully considered, the risk factors existing in the implementation and subsequent operation of the project are scientifically identified, analyzed and evaluated, and the relevant risk prevention measures are formulated. It is of great significance to reduce the probability of risk occurrence and reduce the loss caused by risk occurrence for the smooth implementation of project construction and expected operation. This paper hopes that by studying the risk management in the early stage of the rail transit project, we can formulate effective risk response measures to ensure the realization of the social, economic and environmental benefits of the urban rail transit project. The thesis takes the risk management in the early stage of the project as the research theme, and the Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 as the specific case study, on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign experts' research results and combing the relevant theories. In light of the actual situation of the Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 project, the main risks of the project are identified, such as policy, economy, technology, organization and management, construction management and force majeure. Then the paper evaluates these risks by AHP, and concludes that the top three risks of the project are economic risk, technical risk and organizational management risk. On this basis, the paper puts forward corresponding risk countermeasures in order to provide scientific guidance for ensuring the smooth implementation of Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U215.1

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