本文選題：大科學(xué)工程 + 可靠性增長��； 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目推動國家創(chuàng)新科技的進(jìn)步,關(guān)系著國家的安全戰(zhàn)略,體現(xiàn)了國家的綜合實(shí)力,在我國的現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程中占有重要的地位。通常,大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目具有科研屬性、持續(xù)發(fā)展屬性以及一般工程項(xiàng)目的普適性。這決定了大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目需要完善的項(xiàng)目管理體系,因此有必要對大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目項(xiàng)目管理績效研究。而由于科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目的戰(zhàn)略意義和研究地位,項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量績效具有更高的關(guān)注級別。而系統(tǒng)可靠性是項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量績效的核心體現(xiàn),甚至是進(jìn)一步制定項(xiàng)目管理決策的重要依據(jù)。因此要對項(xiàng)目管理績效進(jìn)行研究,有必要首先評價(jià)系統(tǒng)的可靠性增長情況。綜上,本文以我國在建的某大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目為研究對象,針對該項(xiàng)目的試運(yùn)行階段,首先對大科學(xué)工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行可靠性增長評價(jià),接著基于可靠性增長展開項(xiàng)目管理績效預(yù)測分析。針對研究對象已完成的試運(yùn)行實(shí)際,展開可靠性增長評價(jià)方法研究。在建模過程中,基于Bayes理論,將大型復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)多試運(yùn)行階段多子系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜結(jié)構(gòu),以及試驗(yàn)過程子系統(tǒng)分批投入運(yùn)行的復(fù)雜特性融入建模思路;同時(shí)為簡化模型的計(jì)算過程,將等效轉(zhuǎn)換法、矩等價(jià)法、故障次數(shù)預(yù)測法等方法結(jié)合,解決階段間可靠性增長信息的繼承及模型的驗(yàn)證難題,從而建立針對性的Bayes可靠性增長評價(jià)模型。最后以實(shí)際試運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行算例分析,驗(yàn)證模型的正確性和有效性。針對研究對象未來的試運(yùn)行,展開項(xiàng)目管理績效的預(yù)測評價(jià)方法研究�；诳煽啃栽鲩L評價(jià)結(jié)果,針對項(xiàng)目的試運(yùn)行運(yùn)作過程,將流率基本入樹逐枝建模技術(shù)與一般系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)建模思路相結(jié)合。以一般系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)建模思路,模擬試運(yùn)行階段系統(tǒng)“運(yùn)行-維修”的循環(huán)過程,豐富模型變量;圍繞項(xiàng)目管理績效的重要影響因素逐枝建立流率基本入樹,以實(shí)現(xiàn)對指標(biāo)未來值的仿真。最后依據(jù)研究對象的歷史試運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)、未來基本規(guī)劃值及可靠性增長評價(jià)結(jié)果,進(jìn)行算例分析,驗(yàn)證模型的正確性和有效性;再通過敏感性分析研究系統(tǒng)可靠性增長對項(xiàng)目管理績效各評價(jià)指標(biāo)的作用關(guān)系。本文的研究豐富了可靠性增長評價(jià)的理論研究方法,拓展了項(xiàng)目管理績效的研究領(lǐng)域;同時(shí)對工程實(shí)踐中的可靠性數(shù)據(jù)分析和項(xiàng)目事前管理提供了方法依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The great scientific engineering project promotes the progress of national innovation and technology, relates to the national security strategy, embodies the comprehensive strength of the country, and plays an important role in the modernization process of our country. Generally, large scientific engineering projects have the attributes of scientific research, sustainable development and the universality of general engineering projects. Therefore, it is necessary to study the performance of large science engineering project management. Because of the strategic significance and research status of scientific engineering projects, project quality performance has a higher level of concern. System reliability is the core of project quality performance, and even an important basis for making project management decisions. Therefore, in order to study the project management performance, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability growth of the system. In summary, this paper takes a large scientific engineering project under construction in our country as the research object. In view of the trial operation stage of the project, firstly, the reliability growth evaluation of the large scientific engineering project is carried out. Then the project management performance forecast analysis based on reliability growth is carried out. According to the completed trial operation, the reliability growth evaluation method is studied. In the process of modeling, based on Bayes theory, the complex structure of multi-stage and multi-subsystem of large-scale complex system and the complex characteristics of test process subsystem in batches are incorporated into the modeling idea, and the calculation process of the model is simplified. By combining the equivalent transformation method, moment equivalence method and fault number prediction method, the problems of reliability growth information inheritance and model verification between stages are solved, and a targeted reliability growth evaluation model of Bayes is established. Finally, an example is given to verify the correctness and validity of the model. In view of the future trial operation of the research object, the research on the prediction and evaluation method of project management performance is carried out. Based on the results of reliability growth evaluation, this paper combines the flow rate into tree by branch modeling technology and the general system dynamics modeling idea in view of the trial operation process of the project. With the idea of general system dynamics modeling, this paper simulates the cycle process of "run-maintenance" of the system in the trial operation stage, enriches the model variables, builds the flow rate into the tree by branch around the important influencing factors of the project management performance. In order to achieve the future value of the index simulation. Finally, according to the historical trial operation data of the research object, the future basic planning value and the reliability growth evaluation result, carries on the numerical example analysis, verifies the correctness and the validity of the model; Through sensitivity analysis, the relationship between system reliability growth and project management performance evaluation index is studied. The research in this paper enriches the theoretical research methods of reliability growth evaluation, expands the research field of project management performance, and provides the method basis for reliability data analysis and project prior management in engineering practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G311

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