中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管控與評價研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-26 02:41
本文選題:中小型電力項目 + 風(fēng)險管控。 參考:《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】:自上世紀(jì)末,我國開始注重市場化改革,尤其是自1990年之后,國家各行業(yè)市場化進(jìn)程日益加速,國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的幾大支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)也在經(jīng)受嚴(yán)峻的考驗,其中電力行業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟的一大支柱,肩負(fù)著國計民生發(fā)展的大任。在中小型電力建設(shè)項目紛紛上馬的情況下,如何控制電力建設(shè)項目有條不紊的開展和進(jìn)行,怎樣避免出現(xiàn)企業(yè)和居民用電短缺的情況,如何加強電力建設(shè)項目的風(fēng)險管控將會成為我國電力發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問題,對于我國國民經(jīng)濟改革和電力企業(yè)發(fā)展而言是十分重要的。本文基于內(nèi)蒙古地區(qū)中小型電力建設(shè)項目的發(fā)展規(guī)模、管理現(xiàn)狀及風(fēng)險控制情況進(jìn)行風(fēng)險分析、風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險評估和風(fēng)險管控等研究。首先,針對內(nèi)蒙古地區(qū)中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管理現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行調(diào)研,繼而整理可得;其次,根據(jù)整理情況闡述了當(dāng)前我國中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管理方面存在的諸多問題,進(jìn)而提出了相應(yīng)的優(yōu)化完善對策;最后,以內(nèi)蒙古地區(qū)M中小型電力建設(shè)項目為案例進(jìn)行實證分析,以驗證我國中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評價理論的可行性和必要性。其中,本文將層次分析法(AHP)運用到M中小型電力建設(shè)項目的算例研究中。首先,闡述了AHP方法的基本原理和操作步驟;其次,通過二級指標(biāo)法從四個層面選擇21個指標(biāo)對中小型電力建設(shè)項目進(jìn)行綜合評價。最后,基于定量分析結(jié)果,對前文所述理論進(jìn)行驗證。算例結(jié)果表明,應(yīng)用層次分析法對中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價有助于客觀地反映電力行業(yè)真實情況。文中結(jié)合風(fēng)險管理的相關(guān)理論,制定中小型電力建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管理策略,建立風(fēng)險防空體系。根據(jù)項目風(fēng)險的分析結(jié)果,從可能產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險的各個關(guān)鍵節(jié)點入手,提出風(fēng)險規(guī)避方法及措施。本文提出的風(fēng)險管理措施不僅能夠促進(jìn)中小型電力建設(shè)項目順利完成,還能夠建立科學(xué)有效的風(fēng)險管理體系,將電力系統(tǒng)項目管理的風(fēng)險降到最低點。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the last century, China has begun to pay attention to market-oriented reform. Especially since 1990, the process of marketization in various industries of the country has been accelerating day by day, and several pillar industries of national economic development have also been subjected to severe tests. The electric power industry, as a pillar of the national economy, shoulders the responsibility of the development of the national economy and the people's livelihood. How to control the orderly development and implementation of power construction projects, and how to avoid the shortage of electricity in enterprises and residents when the small and medium-sized electric power construction projects have been launched one after another? How to strengthen the risk control of electric power construction project will become the key problem of our country's electric power development, which is very important for the reform of national economy and the development of electric power enterprise. Based on the development scale, management status and risk control of small and medium-sized electric power construction projects in Inner Mongolia, this paper carries out risk analysis, risk identification, risk assessment and risk management and control. First of all, according to the status quo of risk management of small and medium-sized electric power construction projects in Inner Mongolia, and then collate the available; secondly, according to the collation of the status quo of China's small and medium-sized electric power construction project risk management problems, Finally, taking M small and medium electric power construction project in Inner Mongolia as a case study, the feasibility and necessity of risk evaluation theory of medium and small power construction project in China are verified. In this paper, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to the calculation of M medium and small power construction projects. Firstly, the basic principle and operation steps of AHP method are expounded. Secondly, 21 indexes are selected from four levels to evaluate the small and medium-sized electric power construction project by the two-level index method. Finally, based on the results of quantitative analysis, the theory mentioned above is verified. The results show that the application of AHP to evaluate the risk of small and medium-sized electric power construction projects is helpful to objectively reflect the real situation of the power industry. Combined with the theory of risk management, this paper formulates the risk management strategy of small and medium-sized electric power construction projects, and establishes the risk air defense system. According to the results of project risk analysis, the risk aversion methods and measures are put forward from the key nodes that may produce risk. The risk management measures proposed in this paper can not only promote the smooth completion of small and medium-sized electric power construction projects, but also establish a scientific and effective risk management system to reduce the risk of power system project management to the lowest point.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:F426.61
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