本文關(guān)鍵詞： 工程變更 影響分析 影響傳播 矩陣與概率　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：建設(shè)項(xiàng)目施工過程中使用的施工技術(shù)、機(jī)械設(shè)備和材料不斷推陳出新,與其相關(guān)的政策法規(guī)也在持續(xù)更新甚至有新的文件出臺,施工的自然等環(huán)境條件信息時(shí)常變化且難以準(zhǔn)確掌握,客觀上的不確定以及主觀上的變動和失誤使工程變更不可避免。工程變更對成本、工期和質(zhì)量安全三大主要項(xiàng)目管理目標(biāo)多產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,因此,作為項(xiàng)目的主導(dǎo)者,業(yè)主管理控制工程變更不善易導(dǎo)致無法達(dá)到預(yù)期的投資效益甚至項(xiàng)目投資失敗,對工程變更影響缺乏有效分析是造成該后果的原因之一。在總結(jié)歸納既有的變更原因、變更研究方法和工具以及變更應(yīng)對策略的基礎(chǔ)上,分析變更產(chǎn)生的影響,所取得的研究成果如下:(1)剖析了工程變更具有的不可避免性、傳播性和多方參與性;從建設(shè)項(xiàng)目施工過程中的各項(xiàng)工作著手,厘清了工程變更對三大主要項(xiàng)目管理目標(biāo)的影響機(jī)理;建立了兼顧多目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)且結(jié)合主客觀因素的工程變更全影響分析的概念。(2)提出了用影響可能性乘以影響程度值衡量工程變更影響的基本思路;構(gòu)建了能夠直觀、準(zhǔn)確地表達(dá)工程變更影響且利于展開深入研究的多種矩陣;建立了能夠清晰形象地表達(dá)工程變更影響傳播的可能路徑和各路徑上先后影響的工作的變更影響傳播樹。(3)運(yùn)用積事件的概率原理計(jì)算出了變更影響沿某條路徑傳播的可能性;基于和事件的概率原理求解出了變更影響沿各可能路徑傳播的可能性;通過求解變更各可能傳播情況的平均影響程度值,解決了變更影響沿各可能路徑傳播的影響程度值確定的難題,并分析總結(jié)出了該值計(jì)算的通用公式。(4)定量分析了工程變更傳播產(chǎn)生的綜合影響;運(yùn)用矩陣的乘法運(yùn)算定量分析了考慮業(yè)主對三大主要目標(biāo)各有側(cè)重的工程變更全影響;通過實(shí)例應(yīng)用,驗(yàn)證了影響分析方法的有效性。針對已有或定性、或單一的工程變更影響分析研究無法滿足業(yè)主全方位目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)的需要的問題,提出了基于矩陣與概率的精確、全面、可靠的工程變更影響分析方法,從而為業(yè)主動態(tài)、及時(shí)、精細(xì)地管理控制工程變更提供參考。
[Abstract]:The construction techniques, machinery and materials used in the construction process of construction projects are constantly emerging, and the policies and regulations related to them are also continuously updated and even new documents are issued. The information of environmental conditions such as the nature of construction often changes and is difficult to grasp accurately. The objective uncertainty and subjective changes and mistakes make the engineering changes inevitable. The three main project management objectives of time limit and quality safety have a negative impact. Therefore, as the leader of the project, the poor management and control of the project easily lead to the failure to achieve the expected investment benefit and even the failure of the project investment. The lack of effective analysis of the impact of engineering changes is one of the causes of the consequences. On the basis of summing up the existing reasons of change, the research methods and tools of change, and the strategies to deal with the changes, this paper analyzes the effects of the changes. The research results obtained are as follows: (1) analyzing the inevitability, dissemination and multi-participation of the project changes; starting from the various work during the construction process of the construction project, The influence mechanism of engineering change on the three main project management objectives is clarified. This paper establishes the concept of full impact analysis of engineering change, which takes account of multi-objective realization and combines subjective and objective factors. It puts forward the basic idea of measuring the influence of engineering change by multiplying the influence probability by the value of influence degree, and constructs a method that can be intuitionistic. To express the influence of engineering change accurately and to develop a variety of matrices for further study; The change influence propagation tree which can clearly and vividly express the possible path of engineering change influence propagation and the work of each path has been established. The probability principle of product event is used to calculate the possibility of the change influence propagating along a certain path. Based on the probability principle of the sum event, the possibility of the change influence propagating along each possible path is calculated. It solves the problem of determining the influence degree value of the change influence propagating along each possible path, and analyzes and sums up the general formula for calculating this value. The multiplicative operation of matrix is used to quantitatively analyze the total influence of the owner on the three main objectives of the project, and the effectiveness of the method is verified by an example. Or the problem that a single project change impact analysis can not meet the needs of the owner's omnidirectional goal realization, this paper puts forward an accurate, comprehensive and reliable engineering change impact analysis method based on matrix and probability, which is dynamic and timely for the owner. Carefully manage control engineering changes to provide reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71

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