本文選題：京津冀 + 回歸分析��； 參考：《天津商業(yè)大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：物流業(yè)作為生產性服務業(yè),其發(fā)展程度對社會經濟的各個方面都有一定的影響。然而相比國外發(fā)達國家來說,我國物流成本占GDP比重過高,這一問題不僅影響了企業(yè)和產品的競爭力,更在宏觀上影響了國民經濟的總體水平。京津冀也存在類似情況,三地之間普遍缺乏統(tǒng)一的規(guī)劃,物流網絡體系建設和產業(yè)的布局也幾乎沒有協(xié)調,每個城市都根據(jù)自己的需要有獨立的物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃并建立了獨立的物流園區(qū),造成了重復建設和物流資源的浪費,同時也造成了物流體系的混亂。因此對降低物流成本途徑的研究也越來越受到人們的重視。學術界目前現(xiàn)有的對物流成本的研究主要集中在對第三方物流成本的歸集與核算上,而且主要是針對某個物流企業(yè)的成本研究。對于把整個區(qū)域作為整體,從區(qū)域物流一體化的角度對物流成本的研究還少之又少。本文首先分析了京津冀物流一體化的研究背景和意義,介紹了本文所用到的理論基礎:產業(yè)集群理論、區(qū)域一體化整合理論和系統(tǒng)動力學方法,并研究了國內外的相關文獻。然后對京津冀物流業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行了分析,并通過SWOT分析法分析了京津冀物流一體化面臨的優(yōu)勢、劣勢、機遇和威脅。分析結果顯示與發(fā)達國家相比,京津冀物流一體化過程中存在一定的優(yōu)勢,但是也存在明顯的劣勢和不足,比如:京津冀政府之間經濟利益協(xié)調效率較低,物流基礎設施建設不協(xié)調;物流標準化和信息化水平偏低;現(xiàn)代物流人才短缺;物流企業(yè)規(guī)模小,第三方物流發(fā)展不充分等等。然后分別用回歸分析法和灰色關聯(lián)分析法分析了物流業(yè)與經濟增長和產業(yè)結構的關系。結果表明,京津冀區(qū)域物流的發(fā)展與經濟增長之間存在著明顯的線性關系:當京津冀物流業(yè)每增加一個單位,GDP就增加17.240個單位;當京津冀貨運量增加一萬噸,GDP就增加0.3327億元。京津冀區(qū)域物流與第一、二、三次產業(yè)之間存在明顯的關聯(lián),其關聯(lián)度分別達到0.528323262、0.881250576、0.786846765。因此,京津冀區(qū)域物流業(yè)對促進經濟增長和優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構方面都有很大的貢獻,為京津冀快速發(fā)展物流業(yè)并降低物流成本提供了依據(jù)。然后以系統(tǒng)的觀點對整個區(qū)域物流的成本構成情況進行了分析,首先分析了使用系統(tǒng)動力學方法分析物流成本的可行性,隨后確定模型系統(tǒng)的邊界和所需要的函數(shù)并確立了各個物流成本影響因素之間的邏輯關系,從而建立了運輸成本、庫存成本和總成本的整體模型。并結合京津冀物流成本實際情況把2005-2014年的各數(shù)據(jù)和影響因子代入模型中,對模型運行的有效性進行了檢驗,有效性檢驗結果表明:京津冀物流實際成本與仿真結果的誤差均在10%以內,因此可以認為所建立的模型是有效的。接下來使用該模型對未來十年的物流成本進行了仿真分析,然后又使用該模型對實現(xiàn)物流一體化之后的未來十年的物流成本與目前狀況下的物流成本進行了比較分析。分析結果顯示:與目前狀況下的物流成本仿真結果相比,物流一體化后的物流成本顯著降低�？梢缘贸霰疚牡慕Y論:京津冀物流一體化效應顯著。因此:實現(xiàn)京津冀區(qū)域物流的一體化是降低物流成本的有效途徑。本文最后針對京津冀物流一體化發(fā)展過程中的障礙提出了促進物流一體化的發(fā)展對策:促進府際之間經濟利益的協(xié)調和物流基礎設施的整合;加強物流標準化與信息化水平建設;多種方式培養(yǎng)、引進物流人才;鼓勵開展物流企業(yè)的整合和跨區(qū)發(fā)展及第三方物流的發(fā)展。本文關于京津冀物流一體化實現(xiàn)途徑的研究,有助于府際之間經濟利益的協(xié)調,有助于京津冀構建布局合理,連接貫通的綜合交通運輸體系,統(tǒng)一規(guī)劃物流基礎設施,各個地區(qū)合理定位,錯位發(fā)展。并促進人才的培養(yǎng),加快區(qū)域經濟一體化的進程。為京津冀及其他地區(qū)發(fā)展一體化的物流提供了借鑒,并將為加快京津冀經濟一體化進程起到一定的積極作用,具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義和指導意義。
[Abstract]:As a productive service industry, the development of logistics industry has a certain influence on all aspects of social economy. However, compared with developed countries in foreign countries, China's logistics cost accounts for the high proportion of GDP, which not only affects the competitiveness of enterprises and products, but also affects the overall level of the national economy in the macro. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are also the same. In similar cases, there is a general lack of unified planning between the three areas. The construction of the logistics network system and the layout of the industry have hardly been coordinated. Each city has independent logistics development planning and an independent logistics park based on its own needs. It has caused the waste of repeated construction and material flow, and also caused the logistics system. Therefore, more and more attention has been paid to the research on the ways to reduce the cost of logistics. The current research on logistics costs in the academic world is mainly focused on the collection and accounting of the cost of the third party logistics, and mainly aimed at the cost research of a logistics enterprise. The research on logistics cost is few. This paper first analyzes the background and significance of the research on the integration of logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and introduces the theoretical basis used in this paper: industrial cluster theory, regional integration integration theory and system dynamics method, and studies the related literature at home and abroad. Then the logistics of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is then carried out. The present situation of the development of the industry is analyzed, and the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed by SWOT analysis. The results show that there are some advantages in the process of logistics integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei compared with the developed countries, but there are obvious disadvantages and shortcomings, such as the economy between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The efficiency of interest coordination is low, the construction of logistics infrastructure is not coordinated, the level of logistics standardization and information is low, the shortage of modern logistics personnel, the small scale of logistics enterprises, the insufficient development of the third party logistics and so on. Then the relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth and industrial structure is analyzed with the regression analysis and grey relational analysis. The results show that there is a clear linear relationship between the development of regional logistics and economic growth in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. When the logistics industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei increases one unit, GDP increases 17.240 units. When the volume of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is increased by ten thousand tons, the GDP will increase by 33 million 270 thousand yuan. There is a clear connection between the area of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the first, second and the three industries. The correlation degree of the regional logistics industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has a great contribution to the promotion of economic growth and the optimization of the industrial structure. It provides a basis for the rapid development of the logistics industry and the reduction of logistics costs in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and then makes a systematic view on the cost composition of the whole regional logistics. The analysis is carried out. First, the feasibility of using the system dynamics to analyze the logistics cost is analyzed. Then the boundary of the model system and the function needed are determined and the logical relationship between the factors of the logistics cost is established. The overall model of the transportation cost, the inventory cost and the total cost is established. The actual cost of the 2005-2014 year data and influence factors is replaced by the model, and the validity of the model is tested. The effectiveness test results show that the actual cost of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei logistics and the simulation results are within 10%. Therefore, the model is considered to be effective. Next, the model is used for the future ten. The logistics cost of the year is simulated and analyzed. Then, the model is used to analyze the logistics cost of the next ten years after the integration of logistics and the logistics cost under the current situation. The results show that the logistics cost is significantly lower than the logistics cost simulation results under the current situation. The conclusion is that the integration effect of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is significant. Therefore, the realization of the integration of the regional logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is an effective way to reduce the logistics cost. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to promote the integration of logistics integration in the process of the integration of logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The integration of logistics infrastructure, the construction of logistics standardization and information level, the cultivation of various ways, the introduction of logistics personnel, the integration of logistics enterprises and the development of the three party logistics. The research on the implementation of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is conducive to the coordination of economic interests between the government and the inter governmental economic benefits. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will build a comprehensive transportation system with a reasonable layout, a integrated transportation system, a unified planning of logistics infrastructure, reasonable positioning and dislocation in each area, and promoting the training of talents and accelerating the process of regional economic integration. It provides a reference for the development of integrated logistics in Beijing, Tianjin Hebei and other areas, and will accelerate the economy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The process of industrialization plays a positive role and has certain practical significance and guiding significance.
【學位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F259.27

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