本文選題：電能表 + 需求預測��； 參考：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,電力企業(yè)改革日益深入,電力營銷進入發(fā)展新形勢。電網(wǎng)公司為深入推進“三集五大”,進一步集約計量業(yè)務(wù),在北京、天津等公司開展計量器具直配試點工作。以業(yè)務(wù)需求為導向,以數(shù)據(jù)分析為驅(qū)動,進行電能表需求預測工作;按照省公司直接配送到縣公司、市計量中心直接配送到供電所的配送方式,開展電能表配送工作。為實現(xiàn)計量中心“整體式授權(quán)、自動化檢定、智能化倉儲、物流化配送”的建設(shè)目標,電能表需要進行集中檢定、統(tǒng)一配送等流程,這也對智能電能表的備貨、配送等工作的質(zhì)量和效率提出了更高的要求。本文通過對電能表安裝數(shù)目的時間序列預測及對地區(qū)內(nèi)電能表的配送優(yōu)化,合理的安排計量中心的備表、配送工作,提高了電能表管理的效率及效益。首先,通過地區(qū)內(nèi)電能表安裝歷史數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計,分析電能表安裝數(shù)量發(fā)展變化的規(guī)律,運用科學時間序列預測方法建立了三種需求預測模型,并對模型擬合結(jié)果做出了評價。通過誤差對比選出最優(yōu)模型對未來電能表安裝數(shù)量做出了精準預測,為計量中心電能表的備貨工作提供參考,為電能表配送優(yōu)化工作提供了基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)。其次,在基本配送優(yōu)化模型的基礎(chǔ)上,針對計量中心配送現(xiàn)狀建立了可對不同品規(guī)電能表混合配送的數(shù)學模型�？紤]到供電所電能表需求的緊急程度,在模型中加入了時間窗約束。運用遺傳算法設(shè)計了適用于配送優(yōu)化模型的編碼解碼方式、適應(yīng)度函數(shù)等。最后,將本文使用的算法和模型應(yīng)用于某市計量中心電能表配送算例進行仿真計算,證明了模型中加入時間窗約束的有效性。通過不同電能表單獨配送與電能表混合配送情況的比較,體現(xiàn)了混合配送對于節(jié)約配送成本的優(yōu)勢。另外,通過對車輛載重不同時配送成本的比較,得出了車輛載重對于配送成本的影響。經(jīng)過案例分析給出了計量中心減少配送成本的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the electric power enterprise reform is deepening day by day, the electric power marketing enters the development new situation. In order to further promote the "three sets and five" and further intensive measurement business, power grid companies in Beijing, Tianjin and other companies to carry out direct distribution of measuring instruments pilot work. Guided by business demand and driven by data analysis, the forecasting work of watt-hour meter demand is carried out; according to the way that provincial company distributes directly to county company and city metering center distributes directly to power supply station, the distribution work of watt-hour meter is carried out. In order to realize the construction target of "integral authorization, automatic verification, intelligent warehousing, logistics distribution" in the measurement center, the electric energy meter needs centralized verification and unified distribution flow, which also supplies goods to the intelligent watt-hour meter. The quality and efficiency of distribution and other work put forward higher requirements. By forecasting the time series of the number of watt-hour meters installed and optimizing the distribution of the watt-hour meters in the area, the efficiency and benefit of the management of the watt-hour meters are improved by the reasonable arrangement of the meters and the distribution work of the metering center. Firstly, through the statistics of the historical data of the installation of the watt-hour meter in the region, the law of the development and change of the installation quantity of the watt-hour meter is analyzed, and three kinds of demand forecasting models are established by using the scientific time series forecasting method, and the fitting results of the model are evaluated. Through error comparison, the optimal model is selected to predict the installation quantity of watt-hour meters in the future, which provides a reference for the preparation of watt-hour meters in the measurement center, and provides the basic data for the optimization of the distribution of watt-hour meters. Secondly, on the basis of the basic distribution optimization model, the mathematical model of mixed distribution for different watt-hour meters is established according to the distribution situation of metering center. Considering the urgency of electricity meter demand in power supply station, time window constraint is added to the model. The genetic algorithm is used to design the coding and decoding method, fitness function and so on. Finally, the algorithm and model used in this paper are applied to the simulation calculation of the distribution of electric energy meter in a city metering center, which proves the validity of adding time window constraints to the model. By comparing the distribution of different watt-hour meters separately with the mixed distribution of watt-hour meters, the advantages of hybrid distribution for saving distribution cost are demonstrated. In addition, the effect of vehicle load on distribution cost is obtained by comparing the cost of vehicle load distribution at the same time. Through the case analysis, the paper gives the suggestion of reducing the cost of distribution in the metrology center.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U116.2

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 魯春燕;;基于局部優(yōu)化遺傳算法求解車輛路徑問題[J];信息通信;2017年02期

2 胡衛(wèi);梁承姬;樊陸彬;;基于同時取送貨的多溫共配冷鏈車輛路徑優(yōu)化[J];廣西大學學報(自然科學版);2016年05期

3 張璨輝;陳向群;談曉妍;郭丁熒;呂游;;基于遺傳算法的電力設(shè)備配送優(yōu)化研究[J];儀器儀表用戶;2016年06期

4 章鹿華;丁恒春;徐占河;胡涵清;徐劍;;電能計量器具智能化直配管理新模式與成套設(shè)備設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)[J];物流技術(shù);2016年01期

5 麥鴻坤;肖堅紅;吳熙辰;陳馳;;基于R語言的負荷預測ARIMA模型并行化研究[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2015年11期

6 戢曉峰;普永明;梁斐雯;覃文文;;交通管制時限條件下城市物流配送優(yōu)化雙層規(guī)劃模型[J];公路交通科技;2014年12期

7 王芳;;關(guān)于電能表庫存集約化管理的研究[J];電子制作;2014年02期

8 何蓓;陶敏;鄭朗;但斌;;省級集中模式下電能計量器具倉儲管理策略及應(yīng)用[J];物流技術(shù);2013年23期

9 相晉橋;董曉瑞;張曉莉;任峰;;計量生產(chǎn)調(diào)度平臺標準化設(shè)計業(yè)務(wù)模型分析[J];產(chǎn)業(yè)與科技論壇;2012年19期

10 羅勇;陳治亞;;基于改進遺傳算法的物流配送路徑優(yōu)化[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2012年08期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前2條

1 吳斌;車輛路徑問題的粒子群算法研究與應(yīng)用[D];浙江工業(yè)大學;2008年

2 郭建宏;林副產(chǎn)品配送優(yōu)化輔助決策模型及GIS集成研究[D];北京林業(yè)大學;2008年

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前8條

1 劉恒;基于柔性直配模式的計量設(shè)備配送流程再造研究[D];華北電力大學(北京);2016年

2 王麗國;電力應(yīng)急物資配送系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化研究[D];華北電力大學;2014年

3 劉慧美;智能電能表配送的優(yōu)化調(diào)度問題研究[D];華北電力大學;2013年

4 趙辰;基于遺傳算法的車輛路徑優(yōu)化問題研究[D];天津大學;2012年

5 田宇;基于系統(tǒng)仿真模擬退火算法的VRPTW研究[D];河北工程大學;2011年

6 于芹;基于蟻群算法的物流車輛路徑優(yōu)化問題的研究[D];上海交通大學;2007年

7 伍永森;兩相流測量信號的時間序列分析[D];中國石油大學;2007年

8 孫洪茹;城市物流配送體系及其路線優(yōu)化的研究[D];山東科技大學;2005年

，

本文編號：1954688