本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市限行政策 實證研究 配送時效 交通擁堵 空氣污染　出處：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：北京因為其政治經(jīng)濟地位和優(yōu)越的資源條件吸引著大量人口和企業(yè)的聚集,近年來北京的城市交通擁堵、城市環(huán)境污染等城市問題越發(fā)嚴重,城市物流是導(dǎo)致這些問題的一個重要因素。為解決這些城市問題,北京的城市管理者制定了許多物流政策,如對貨車在時間上和空間上的限行政策,單雙號限行政策等。隨著“京津冀一體化”的推進,北京市第六階段機動車排放地方標準實施的逼近,北京市急需對既有的物流政策做出相應(yīng)的調(diào)整以適應(yīng)新發(fā)展的需求,然而政策的調(diào)整需要建立在對既有政策評估的基礎(chǔ)之上。學術(shù)界對于城市限行政策的評估多選取仿真和建模的規(guī)范研究方法,基于企業(yè)調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù),對現(xiàn)實進行一定的假設(shè)與簡化,未有以實證的方法、基于城市物流數(shù)據(jù)而展開的客觀研究。在此背景下,本文首先分析了北京市限行政策的現(xiàn)狀,通過文獻回顧和現(xiàn)狀分析提出了城市限行政策對于物流配送時效、物流社會效益和物流環(huán)境效益影響的四個假設(shè)。繼而選取效益和政策的變量,搜集大量數(shù)據(jù)并對數(shù)據(jù)進行非貨運貢獻剔除的預(yù)處理,選定分析樣本,構(gòu)建檢驗的模型。接著采取了描述性統(tǒng)計分析方法、均值差異的Wilxon秩和檢驗、相關(guān)性分析、K-means聚類分析、回歸分析等方法,分別檢驗假設(shè)結(jié)果,并對數(shù)據(jù)進行進一步的分析以解釋城市限行政策對物流效益的影響原理。文章得到的主要結(jié)論有:1.北京市每日的貨車限時政策對于貨運配送時效并無顯著影響。2.單雙號限行政策顯著降低了貨物配送到北京的配送時效,其影響的方式是延長單雙號期間貨運配送車輛的配送時間來實現(xiàn)的。3.單雙號限行政策顯著降低了貨運帶來的交通擁堵,其實現(xiàn)方式是通過降低限行期間進入北京市的貨運車輛來實現(xiàn)的。然而交通擁堵指數(shù)整體上在限行期間降低了 57.39%,但是單雙號限行期間的貨運車輛降幅水平僅在35%左右,表明單雙號限行政策并未有將貨車流量降到平日的一半。4.單雙號限行政策顯著降低了貨運帶來的空氣污染,其實現(xiàn)方式是通過降低貨運帶來的污染物排放所實現(xiàn)的。然而通過區(qū)縣貨車流量與該區(qū)縣的AQI的回歸模型分析得出,貨運車輛帶來的污染僅占AQI的一小部分,AQI還受到其他因素的重大影響,單雙號限行期間的空氣改善還有很大程度上是由配套的燃煤限制等措施所貢獻的。以上結(jié)論可為北京市政府管理者修訂既有的物流政策、治理空氣污染、緩解交通擁堵等方面提供有效參考與支撐。
[Abstract]:Because of its political and economic status and superior resource conditions, Beijing attracts a large number of people and enterprises to gather. In recent years, Beijing's urban traffic congestion, urban environmental pollution and other urban problems are becoming more and more serious. Urban logistics is an important factor leading to these problems. In order to solve these urban problems, city managers in Beijing have formulated many logistics policies, such as restrictions on the time and space of freight cars. With the promotion of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration", the implementation of local standards for motor vehicle emissions in Beijing 6th is approaching. Beijing urgently needs to adjust the existing logistics policies to meet the needs of new development. However, the adjustment of policy needs to be based on the existing policy evaluation. The academic evaluation of urban restriction policy mostly selects the normative research methods of simulation and modeling, based on enterprise research data. Some hypotheses and simplifications of the reality have not been carried out by empirical method based on the urban logistics data. Under this background, this paper first analyzes the current situation of the restriction policy in Beijing. Through literature review and current situation analysis, this paper puts forward four hypotheses of the effect of urban traffic restriction policy on logistics distribution timeliness, logistics social benefits and logistics environmental benefits, and then selects the benefits and policy variables. Collect a lot of data and pre-process the data for non-freight contribution elimination, select the analysis samples, build the test model. Then we adopt the descriptive statistical analysis method, the Wilxon rank sum test of the mean difference. Correlation analysis, K-means clustering analysis, regression analysis and other methods, respectively test the hypothetical results. Further analysis of the data is carried out to explain the impact of urban restrictions on logistics benefits. The main conclusions are as follows:. 1. The daily freight car time limit policy in Beijing has no significant effect on the freight distribution limitation. 2. Single and even number limit policy significantly reduces the distribution time limit of goods to Beijing. The way of its influence is to extend the distribution time of freight distribution vehicles during the period of single and even number. The single and even number restriction policy has significantly reduced the traffic congestion caused by freight transport. Its implementation is achieved by reducing the number of freight vehicles entering Beijing during the traffic restriction period. However, the traffic congestion index as a whole has been reduced by 57.39% during the traffic restriction period. But the number of single and even cargo vehicles during the period of decline in only 35% or so. It shows that the single and even number limit policy has not reduced the volume of freight cars to half of the normal day. The single even number restriction policy has significantly reduced the air pollution caused by freight transport. Its realization is achieved by reducing the pollutant emissions brought by freight transportation. However, through the regression model analysis of freight car flow and AQI in the county. Only a small fraction of AQI pollution from freight vehicles has been heavily affected by other factors. The air improvement during the single and even number limit period is also contributed to a large extent by supporting measures such as coal-burning restrictions. The above conclusions can be used to revise the existing logistics policy and control air pollution for the Beijing municipal government. To provide effective reference and support to alleviate traffic congestion and so on.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

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