本文關(guān)鍵詞：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)下物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)研究　出處：《華東交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) 物流碳足跡 超越對(duì)數(shù)函數(shù) 灰色預(yù)測(cè) 碳強(qiáng)度 能耗強(qiáng)度

【摘要】：物流業(yè)是連接國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)的紐帶，所以物流業(yè)也被形象稱作是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的 輸血管‖。雖然物流業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)的地位，但不容忽視的是物流業(yè)也是高能源消耗、溫室氣體排放的主要來(lái)源。為發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)，減輕霧霾污染和減少溫室氣體排放，，物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排的工作刻不容緩，首先構(gòu)造超越對(duì)數(shù)函數(shù)模型對(duì)物流能源利用效率和結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析；并從能源消耗角度測(cè)算了2004-2012年省域物流業(yè)的碳足跡，根據(jù)測(cè)算結(jié)果并參考政府節(jié)能減排的工作文件，提出我國(guó)不同省域物流業(yè)在 十二五‖、 十三五‖期間的碳強(qiáng)度和能耗強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)規(guī)劃值，并引入灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明：1.2002年開(kāi)始，我國(guó)物流能源利用效率在顯著提高，尤以天然氣能源投入的貢獻(xiàn)最大，電力、天然氣為代表的清潔能源可以有效替代石油和煤炭，并且天然氣、電力等能源技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度要快于石油、煤炭，未來(lái)物流業(yè)高碳排放能源將被清潔能源逐步替代；2.我國(guó)物流碳足跡的排放總量一直呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，西北省份如寧夏、內(nèi)蒙古等漲幅最快，上海、廣東等沿海省份增速放緩，從物流碳足跡規(guī)模角度可分為四個(gè)層次；3.根據(jù)目前物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排的現(xiàn)狀，預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示 十二五‖期間我國(guó)未能完成物流碳足跡動(dòng)態(tài)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)，但在 十三五‖期間可以完成，全國(guó)一半省份可以完成研究期內(nèi)物流碳足跡節(jié)能減排 雙強(qiáng)度‖目標(biāo)，并且大部分省市的 雙強(qiáng)度‖值呈下降趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry is the link between the national economy production and consumption, so the logistics industry is also referred to as the economic and social blood vessel, although the logistics industry occupies the position of the pillar industry in the national economy. But the logistics industry is also a high energy consumption, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. In order to develop a low-carbon economy, reduce haze pollution and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the logistics industry energy conservation and emission reduction work is urgent. Firstly, a transcendental logarithmic function model is constructed to analyze the current situation of logistics energy utilization efficiency and structure. And from the perspective of energy consumption, the paper calculates the carbon footprint of provincial logistics industry from 2004 to 2012, according to the calculation results and referring to the working document of government energy saving and emission reduction. The target planning values of carbon intensity and energy intensity in different provinces of China are put forward. The results show that: 1. Since 2002, the efficiency of logistics energy utilization in China has been significantly improved, especially the contribution of natural gas energy input, electric power. Natural gas as the representative of clean energy can effectively replace oil and coal, and natural gas, electricity and other energy technology progress faster than oil and coal. In the future, high carbon emission energy in logistics industry will be replaced by clean energy. 2. The total emission of logistics carbon footprint in China has been on the rise, northwest provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other fastest growth, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal provinces slow growth. From the perspective of logistics carbon footprint scale, it can be divided into four levels; 3.According to the current situation of energy saving and emission reduction in logistics industry, the forecast results show that China failed to complete the dynamic energy saving and emission reduction target of logistics carbon footprint during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, but it can be completed during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Half of the provinces in China can fulfill the target of carbon footprint energy saving and emission reduction during the research period and the value of double intensity is decreasing in most provinces and cities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F259.2;F205

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王卉彤;;建立健全低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的金融創(chuàng)新機(jī)制研究[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年07期

2 夏文匯;;基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)物流配送模型研究[J];重慶理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué));2010年10期

3 趙榮欽;黃賢金;鐘太洋;;中國(guó)不同產(chǎn)業(yè)空間的碳排放強(qiáng)度與碳足跡分析[J];地理學(xué)報(bào);2010年09期

4 姜燕寧;郝書池;;基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的物流服務(wù)創(chuàng)新研究[J];湖北社會(huì)科學(xué);2012年01期

5 鐘新周;;發(fā)展低碳物流的影響因素及對(duì)策[J];改革與戰(zhàn)略;2012年01期

6 陳柳欽;;金融支持低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展問(wèn)題探討[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2013年02期

7 盧俊宇;黃賢金;陳逸;肖瀟;;基于能源消費(fèi)的中國(guó)省級(jí)區(qū)域碳足跡時(shí)空演變分析[J];地理研究;2013年02期

8 馬艷;吳蓮;;低碳技術(shù)對(duì)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)作用機(jī)制的理論與實(shí)證分析——基于馬克思社會(huì)總產(chǎn)品價(jià)值構(gòu)成理論的視角[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2013年11期

9 黃磊;周勇;;基于超越對(duì)數(shù)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的能源產(chǎn)出及替代彈性分析[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2008年01期

10 董千里;董展;關(guān)高峰;;低碳物流運(yùn)作的理論與策略研究[J];科技進(jìn)步與對(duì)策;2010年22期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 宋曉華;基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)電行業(yè)節(jié)能減排路徑研究[D];華北電力大學(xué);2012年

2 曹清堯;西部地區(qū)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展研究[D];北京林業(yè)大學(xué);2013年

本文編號(hào)：1439083