本文關(guān)鍵詞：廢舊家電回收量預(yù)測研究　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 廢舊家電 回收量 預(yù)測 仿真模型 粗糙集理論

【摘要】：近年來我國家用電器的社會(huì)保有量不斷增長,廢舊家電的數(shù)量也越來越多。與國外很多發(fā)達(dá)國家相比,我國廢舊家電回收工作的研究起步較晚,相關(guān)法律法規(guī)和理論研究都不完善。而諸如廢舊家電回收網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃、制定合適的激勵(lì)機(jī)制之類的研究都需要以準(zhǔn)確的廢舊家電回收量為基礎(chǔ)。但目前大多數(shù)學(xué)者都將目光集中在家電銷售量預(yù)測這類正向物流的領(lǐng)域,關(guān)于逆向物流預(yù)測方面的研究相對較少,因此對廢舊家電回收量預(yù)測的研究顯得十分迫切、極為重要。本文在以往文獻(xiàn)資料的基礎(chǔ)上,針對廢舊家電回收活動(dòng)的特點(diǎn),分析影響回收量的主要因素。以電視機(jī)為例,建立廢舊家電回收量仿真模型,最后運(yùn)用粗糙集理論構(gòu)建廢舊家電回收量預(yù)測模型,并利用仿真數(shù)據(jù)對預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。本文主要做了以下3項(xiàng)工作：(1)在以往文獻(xiàn)及其他相關(guān)資料的基礎(chǔ)上,全面分析廢舊家電產(chǎn)生、回收流程,從產(chǎn)品、消費(fèi)者、社會(huì)環(huán)境三個(gè)方面對影響廢舊家電回收量的主要影響因素進(jìn)行分類描述,并對這些因素的作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行研究。(2)對家電產(chǎn)品銷售、使用、回收的整個(gè)過程進(jìn)行分析,以電視機(jī)為例,在以往實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)廢舊家電產(chǎn)生的機(jī)理構(gòu)建廢舊家電回收量仿真模型。(3)針對廢舊家電回收量預(yù)測問題的隨機(jī)性和復(fù)雜性,利用粗糙集理論對影響因素進(jìn)行約簡,獲取家電回收量與歷史銷售量等影響因素之間的規(guī)律,提取相關(guān)規(guī)則,對家電回收量進(jìn)行預(yù)測。并用仿真模型所獲得的仿真數(shù)據(jù)對預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測效果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。本文對廢舊家電回收量的過程進(jìn)行了定性研究,從不同角度總結(jié)了廢舊家電回收量影響因素。然后以電視機(jī)為例構(gòu)建回收量仿真模型,并對對仿真結(jié)果進(jìn)行了一定的分析。最后構(gòu)建粗糙集預(yù)測模型,運(yùn)用仿真模型對模型的預(yù)測精度進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果說明了粗糙集預(yù)測模型在廢舊家電回收量預(yù)測領(lǐng)域的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's household appliances inventory continues to increase, the number of waste household appliances is also increasing. Compared with the developed countries, recycling waste household appliances in China started late on, the relevant laws and regulations and the theory is not perfect. Such as recycling waste household appliances such as network planning, study and formulate appropriate incentive mechanism the need to waste household appliance accurately for the foundation. But most scholars focused on home appliance sales forecast of this kind of forward logistics, reverse logistics on the prediction research of less, so it is very urgent to study the prediction of the amount of waste household appliance, is very important. Based on the past literature, according to the characteristics of waste home appliances recycling activities, analysis of main factors influencing the recovery rate. The case of TV set, establishment of waste home appliances recycling quantity The simulation model, finally using prediction model of waste household appliance construction for rough set theory, and test the prediction model by the simulation data. This paper mainly do the following 3 tasks: (1) based on the previous literature and other relevant information, a comprehensive analysis of household appliances, recycling process, from the product, the consumer. The classification described three aspects of the social environment mainly affects the quantity of waste household appliance factors, and research the action mechanism of these factors. (2) the use of home appliances sales, analyzes the whole process of recovery, with television as an example, based on the previous empirical research, according to the mechanism of the waste household appliance the construction of recycling waste household appliances simulation model. (3) randomness and complexity for waste household appliances recycling forecast problems, influencing factors are simplified based on rough set theory, for home appliance recycling Among the factors and the influence law of sales history, extraction rules to predict the amount of home appliance recycling test and prediction effect. The simulation data obtained by the simulation model of the prediction model. The process of waste home appliances recycling capacity of qualitative research, from different angles, and summarizes the influencing factors of the amount of waste household appliance then the television for example to build recycling quantity simulation model, and the simulation results are analyzed. Finally the prediction model is constructed using rough set, the prediction accuracy of the model simulation model test, test results show that the prediction model is effective in the field of waste home appliances recycling amount of rough set.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F713.2

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