【摘要】：本文通過引入政府生產(chǎn)性支出拓展了包含災(zāi)難沖擊的新凱恩斯DSGE模型,數(shù)值分析表明,相對于不含政府生產(chǎn)性支出的災(zāi)難沖擊模型,該模型能夠更好地?cái)M合中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)等基本特征。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文分別在規(guī)則行事與相機(jī)抉擇兩種情形下對比分析了我國面對災(zāi)難沖擊時(shí)的最優(yōu)財(cái)政貨幣政策選擇問題,研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)應(yīng)對災(zāi)難沖擊時(shí),相對于相機(jī)抉擇,規(guī)則行事造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)福利損失較低;(2)政府生產(chǎn)性支出可以在一定程度上降低災(zāi)難沖擊對消費(fèi)和產(chǎn)出等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響,但同時(shí)會(huì)弱化債務(wù)對災(zāi)難沖擊的吸收作用;(3)引入通貨膨脹懲罰(或厭惡)后政府可以更多地倚重于債務(wù)發(fā)行來吸收外部不利沖擊,從而緩解相機(jī)抉擇下的時(shí)間不一致性問題,減少經(jīng)濟(jì)福利損失。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the new Keynes DSGE model, which includes disaster shock, is extended by introducing government productive expenditure. Numerical analysis shows that the model can better fit the basic characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuation in China compared with the disaster impact model without government productive expenditure. On this basis, this paper compares and analyzes the optimal fiscal and monetary policy choice in the face of disaster shock in the case of rule action and discretionary choice respectively. It is found that: (1) when dealing with disaster shock, the loss of economic welfare caused by rule action is lower than that caused by random choice; (2) Government productive expenditure can reduce the influence of disaster shock on macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output to a certain extent, but at the same time weaken the absorption of debt to disaster shock; (3) after introducing inflation punishment (or aversion), the government can rely more on debt issuance to absorb external adverse shocks, so as to alleviate the time inconsistency under random choice and reduce the loss of economic welfare.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院金融系;山東工商學(xué)院統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;廈門大學(xué)王亞南經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院;
【基金】：國家社科基金項(xiàng)目“預(yù)期災(zāi)難沖擊、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)與中國財(cái)政貨幣政策工具選擇研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:16BJL028) 國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目“罕見災(zāi)難風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與資產(chǎn)定價(jià):理論拓展與基于我國股市實(shí)證研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:71471154)的資助
【分類號】：F812.0;F822.0

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