多部門(mén)模型中的政府支出乘數(shù)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-24 16:16
【摘要】：作為重要的需求管理工具之一,財(cái)政政策為調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)與熨平周期波動(dòng)做出了巨大貢獻(xiàn)。特別是在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)逐步退出寬松貨幣政策及特朗普當(dāng)選后中美"財(cái)政共振"的背景下,研究財(cái)政擴(kuò)張的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)及傳導(dǎo)路徑是極具理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。鑒于此,本文構(gòu)建含有制造業(yè)部門(mén)與服務(wù)業(yè)部門(mén)的兩部門(mén)DSGE模型,以分析政府消費(fèi)型支出與投資型支出的結(jié)構(gòu)性效應(yīng)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),第一,制造業(yè)部門(mén)政府投資與政府消費(fèi)型支出的財(cái)政乘數(shù)均小于服務(wù)業(yè)部門(mén);第二,由于投資型支出不僅出現(xiàn)在需求端,而且通過(guò)累積公共資本的渠道進(jìn)入生產(chǎn)端并產(chǎn)生了長(zhǎng)期的供給側(cè)拉動(dòng)效應(yīng),即相較于消費(fèi)型支出,投資型支出的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)更明顯且影響力更持久;第三,供給側(cè)的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)也將使得投資型支出的擠出效應(yīng)更小。
[Abstract]:As one of the important demand management tools, fiscal policy has made a great contribution to regulating economic structure and ironing cycle fluctuations. Especially in the context of the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve from loose monetary policy and the "fiscal resonance" between China and the United States after Trump's election, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the multiplier effect and transmission path of fiscal expansion. In view of this, this paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model including manufacturing sector and service sector to analyze the structural effects of government consumptive expenditure and investment-oriented expenditure. Firstly, the financial multiplier of government investment and government consumption expenditure in manufacturing sector is smaller than that in service sector. Second, because investment spending not only occurs on the demand side, but also enters the production end through the channel of accumulating public capital and has a long-term supply-side pull effect, that is, compared with consumer spending, The multiplier effect of investment expenditure is more obvious and lasting; Third, the supply-side pull effect will also make the investment-based expenditure extrusion effect smaller.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F810.4
本文編號(hào)：2414618
[Abstract]:As one of the important demand management tools, fiscal policy has made a great contribution to regulating economic structure and ironing cycle fluctuations. Especially in the context of the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve from loose monetary policy and the "fiscal resonance" between China and the United States after Trump's election, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the multiplier effect and transmission path of fiscal expansion. In view of this, this paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model including manufacturing sector and service sector to analyze the structural effects of government consumptive expenditure and investment-oriented expenditure. Firstly, the financial multiplier of government investment and government consumption expenditure in manufacturing sector is smaller than that in service sector. Second, because investment spending not only occurs on the demand side, but also enters the production end through the channel of accumulating public capital and has a long-term supply-side pull effect, that is, compared with consumer spending, The multiplier effect of investment expenditure is more obvious and lasting; Third, the supply-side pull effect will also make the investment-based expenditure extrusion effect smaller.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F810.4
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1 許祥云;;不同環(huán)境下的政府支出乘數(shù)研究評(píng)述[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2013年06期
2 翟楊;;云南省政府支出乘數(shù)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究導(dǎo)刊;2014年20期
3 安德魯·T.楊;匡樺;;為什么我們成為了凱恩斯主義者?[J];金融市場(chǎng)研究;2013年04期
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