財(cái)政支出與技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-15 00:04
【摘要】：近年來(lái),我國(guó)居民國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)率較低的事實(shí)與我國(guó)居民在海外大量購(gòu)買(mǎi)國(guó)外產(chǎn)品、消費(fèi)額逐年上升的現(xiàn)象形成了一種反差。這種反差實(shí)際上折現(xiàn)出我國(guó)居民當(dāng)前消費(fèi)需求的新變化:商品品質(zhì)的高低已經(jīng)成為影響我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)決策的重要因素。商品的品質(zhì)與廠商的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)水平直接相關(guān),因此,這一新的消費(fèi)需求變化說(shuō)明,廠商較低的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)水平會(huì)抑制居民消費(fèi),而技術(shù)水平的提高會(huì)促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),提升我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率的關(guān)鍵在于促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步。由于技術(shù)進(jìn)步在一定程度上具有外部性和公共產(chǎn)品的性質(zhì)。因此,政府作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控者,理應(yīng)在促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和提振居民消費(fèi)上發(fā)揮重要作用。根據(jù)學(xué)者們過(guò)往的研究,不同類(lèi)型的財(cái)政支出對(duì)于居民消費(fèi)會(huì)產(chǎn)生不同的擠入和擠出效應(yīng)。其研究角度往往從財(cái)政支出的生產(chǎn)性和消費(fèi)性?xún)煞矫媲腥?忽視了財(cái)政政策通過(guò)促進(jìn)廠商的技術(shù)水平來(lái)影響居民消費(fèi)這一重要途徑。因此,本文分三個(gè)層次,從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面,研究財(cái)政支出與技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響。層次一:對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀和財(cái)政政策支持科技創(chuàng)新的經(jīng)驗(yàn)事實(shí)進(jìn)行描述,歸納并總結(jié)財(cái)政政策對(duì)于技術(shù)進(jìn)步的影響以及技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響,搭建起通過(guò)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的視角研究財(cái)政支出影響居民消費(fèi)的通道。層次二:構(gòu)建理論框架分析政府支出與技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響。在理論分析框架中,本文在分析了技術(shù)水平與居民消費(fèi)二者關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,將政府與研發(fā)相關(guān)的公共支出引入知識(shí)積累函數(shù),將其納入Barro(1990)對(duì)政府支出的分析框架中,構(gòu)建同時(shí)包含技術(shù)進(jìn)步、生產(chǎn)性和消費(fèi)性三類(lèi)公共支出的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)模型,并得到兩個(gè)重要命題:命題一:技術(shù)水平的高低會(huì)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生影響,技術(shù)水平提高時(shí),居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)率也會(huì)隨之提高,技術(shù)水平下降時(shí),居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)率也會(huì)隨之下降;當(dāng)技術(shù)水平較高時(shí),居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)率為正,技術(shù)進(jìn)步會(huì)促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),當(dāng)技術(shù)水平較低時(shí),居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)率為負(fù),即使存在技術(shù)進(jìn)步也會(huì)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生副作用。命題二:政府的RD支出有利于促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步,并且存在一個(gè)有關(guān)技術(shù)水平的臨界值,當(dāng)技術(shù)水平高于該臨界值時(shí),政府RD支出的增加有利于促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),并且支出水平越高,消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)率越快;當(dāng)技術(shù)水平低于該臨界值時(shí),政府RD支出與居民消費(fèi)負(fù)相關(guān),但RD支出對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的抑制程度會(huì)隨著其支出水平的提高而下降。層次三:構(gòu)建實(shí)證框架分析政府支出與技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響。在實(shí)證分析框架中,本文運(yùn)用2005-2014年我國(guó)30個(gè)省(西藏除外)的面板數(shù)據(jù),考察了政府支出與技術(shù)水平對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)的影響。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果證明了理論分析得到的兩個(gè)命題,并且十分穩(wěn)健。實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果還進(jìn)一步證明,大多數(shù)與技術(shù)進(jìn)步相關(guān)的投入或成果(如:RD支出、政府科技支出、人均教育年限、專(zhuān)利等)都會(huì)通過(guò)促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步影響居民消費(fèi)。在對(duì)RD活動(dòng)按照不同研究類(lèi)型進(jìn)行劃分后發(fā)現(xiàn),試驗(yàn)開(kāi)發(fā)對(duì)消費(fèi)的促進(jìn)作用最強(qiáng),基礎(chǔ)研究次之,應(yīng)用研究不顯著;在對(duì)RD活動(dòng)按照不同執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行劃分后發(fā)現(xiàn),高技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的研發(fā)活動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)的促進(jìn)作用最強(qiáng),企業(yè)次之,研發(fā)機(jī)構(gòu)再次,高校不顯著。本文同樣測(cè)算出要想使技術(shù)進(jìn)步促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),各類(lèi)RD資本存量所應(yīng)具備的臨界值,這些臨界值可以作為衡量我國(guó)各類(lèi)RD支出水平是否合意的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。此外,實(shí)證研究結(jié)果還證明,政府科技支出能通過(guò)促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生影響,政府科技支出的滯后1期值對(duì)消費(fèi)的促進(jìn)作用強(qiáng)于同等數(shù)量的當(dāng)期RD支出;生產(chǎn)性公共支出對(duì)居民消費(fèi)具有顯著影響,并且影響持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng),不同時(shí)期的影響效果也具有不同的性質(zhì);消費(fèi)性公共支出同樣對(duì)居民消費(fèi)具有顯著影響,當(dāng)消費(fèi)性公共支出與居民的消費(fèi)需求為互補(bǔ)關(guān)系時(shí),居民消費(fèi)與消費(fèi)性公共支出正相關(guān);財(cái)政分權(quán)度對(duì)居民消費(fèi)具有顯著影響,居民消費(fèi)與財(cái)政收入分權(quán)度正相關(guān),與財(cái)政支出分權(quán)度負(fù)相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there is a contrast between the fact that the consumption rate of the residents in our country is low and the large amount of foreign products purchased abroad by the residents of our country. The contrast actually shows the new change of the current consumption demand of our population: the quality of the goods has become an important factor to affect the consumption decision of our country. The quality of the goods is directly related to the manufacturer's production technical level. Therefore, this new consumption demand change indicates that the lower production technology level of the manufacturer can restrain the consumption of the consumer, and the improvement of the technical level will promote the consumption of the consumer. The key to improving the consumption rate of our residents is to promote the technological progress. As a result of technological progress, it has the externality and the nature of public goods to some extent. As a result, the government should play an important role in promoting the technological progress and raising the consumer's consumption. According to the research of the scholars, different types of financial expenditure will have different extrusion and extrusion effects on the residents' consumption. The research angle tends to cut from both the productivity and the consumption of the financial expenditure, and neglect the important way of the fiscal policy to influence the consumer's consumption through the promotion of the technology level of the Chinese manufacturers. Therefore, this paper divides three levels, and studies the effect of financial expenditure and technological progress on the residents' consumption. Level 1: To describe and summarize the impact of fiscal policy on the technological progress and the impact of the technological progress on the consumption of the residents in the light of the present state of the resident's resident consumption and the empirical fact that the fiscal policy supports the innovation of science and technology. To set up a channel to study the influence of the financial expenditure on the consumption of the residents through the perspective of technological progress. Level 2: Building a theoretical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the technology level and the resident's consumption, this paper introduces the government's public expenditure related to R & D into the knowledge accumulation function, and then it is included in the analysis of the government expenditure by Barro (1990). The endogenous growth model of three kinds of public expenditure of productivity and consumption has two important propositions: the proposition 1: the high and low level of the technical level will affect the resident's consumption, and when the technical level is improved, the consumption growth rate of the residents will also increase, and the technical level will decrease. The growth rate of resident consumption will also decrease. When the technology level is high, the consumption growth rate of residents is positive, and the technological progress will promote the consumption of the consumer. When the technology level is low, the consumption rate of resident consumption is negative, even if there is technological progress, it will have side effects on the resident's consumption. Proposition 2: The RD expenditure of the government is favorable to the promotion of technological progress, and there is a critical value related to the technical level. When the technical level is higher than the critical value, the increase of the government RD expenditure is favorable to the promotion of the consumption of the consumer, and the higher the expenditure level, the faster the consumption is. When the technology level is lower than the critical value, the government RD expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of the consumer, but the degree of the RD expenditure on the consumption of the residents will decrease with the increase of the expenditure level. Level 3: To build an empirical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. In the framework of the empirical analysis, the paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces (except Tibet) in China from 2005 to 2014 to study the effect of government expenditure and technical level on the consumption of our country. The results of the test prove the two propositions obtained by the theoretical analysis, and are very robust. The results of the empirical test further prove that most input or results related to technological progress (such as RD expenditure, government scientific and technological expenditure, per capita education life, patent, etc.) will influence the consumption of residents by promoting technological progress. After the RD activity was divided according to different research types, the effect of test and development on consumption was the strongest, the basic research was the second, and the application research was not significant; after the RD activities were divided according to different actuators, The research and development activities of the high-tech industry have the strongest promoting effect on consumption, the enterprises are the second, and the R & D institutions are not significant again. The paper also calculates the critical value that should be possessed by the technology progress to promote the consumption of consumption and various RD capital, and these critical values can be used as the standard to measure whether the level of RD expenditure in our country is desirable. in addition, that result of the empirical study also prove that the government's scientific and technological expenditure can have an impact on the resident's consumption through the promotion of technological progress, the delay of the government's scientific and technological expenditure is stronger than the equivalent amount of the current RD expenditure, and the productive public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident's consumption. and the consumption public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident consumption, and when the consumption public expenditure is in a complementary relationship with the consumption demand of the residents, the consumption of the consumer is positively related to the consumption public expenditure; The degree of fiscal decentralization has a significant impact on the resident's consumption, and the decentralization of the residents' consumption and the fiscal revenue is positively related, and is negatively related to the degree of decentralization of the financial expenditure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.45;F124.3;F126.1
本文編號(hào)：2379556
[Abstract]:In recent years, there is a contrast between the fact that the consumption rate of the residents in our country is low and the large amount of foreign products purchased abroad by the residents of our country. The contrast actually shows the new change of the current consumption demand of our population: the quality of the goods has become an important factor to affect the consumption decision of our country. The quality of the goods is directly related to the manufacturer's production technical level. Therefore, this new consumption demand change indicates that the lower production technology level of the manufacturer can restrain the consumption of the consumer, and the improvement of the technical level will promote the consumption of the consumer. The key to improving the consumption rate of our residents is to promote the technological progress. As a result of technological progress, it has the externality and the nature of public goods to some extent. As a result, the government should play an important role in promoting the technological progress and raising the consumer's consumption. According to the research of the scholars, different types of financial expenditure will have different extrusion and extrusion effects on the residents' consumption. The research angle tends to cut from both the productivity and the consumption of the financial expenditure, and neglect the important way of the fiscal policy to influence the consumer's consumption through the promotion of the technology level of the Chinese manufacturers. Therefore, this paper divides three levels, and studies the effect of financial expenditure and technological progress on the residents' consumption. Level 1: To describe and summarize the impact of fiscal policy on the technological progress and the impact of the technological progress on the consumption of the residents in the light of the present state of the resident's resident consumption and the empirical fact that the fiscal policy supports the innovation of science and technology. To set up a channel to study the influence of the financial expenditure on the consumption of the residents through the perspective of technological progress. Level 2: Building a theoretical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the technology level and the resident's consumption, this paper introduces the government's public expenditure related to R & D into the knowledge accumulation function, and then it is included in the analysis of the government expenditure by Barro (1990). The endogenous growth model of three kinds of public expenditure of productivity and consumption has two important propositions: the proposition 1: the high and low level of the technical level will affect the resident's consumption, and when the technical level is improved, the consumption growth rate of the residents will also increase, and the technical level will decrease. The growth rate of resident consumption will also decrease. When the technology level is high, the consumption growth rate of residents is positive, and the technological progress will promote the consumption of the consumer. When the technology level is low, the consumption rate of resident consumption is negative, even if there is technological progress, it will have side effects on the resident's consumption. Proposition 2: The RD expenditure of the government is favorable to the promotion of technological progress, and there is a critical value related to the technical level. When the technical level is higher than the critical value, the increase of the government RD expenditure is favorable to the promotion of the consumption of the consumer, and the higher the expenditure level, the faster the consumption is. When the technology level is lower than the critical value, the government RD expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of the consumer, but the degree of the RD expenditure on the consumption of the residents will decrease with the increase of the expenditure level. Level 3: To build an empirical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. In the framework of the empirical analysis, the paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces (except Tibet) in China from 2005 to 2014 to study the effect of government expenditure and technical level on the consumption of our country. The results of the test prove the two propositions obtained by the theoretical analysis, and are very robust. The results of the empirical test further prove that most input or results related to technological progress (such as RD expenditure, government scientific and technological expenditure, per capita education life, patent, etc.) will influence the consumption of residents by promoting technological progress. After the RD activity was divided according to different research types, the effect of test and development on consumption was the strongest, the basic research was the second, and the application research was not significant; after the RD activities were divided according to different actuators, The research and development activities of the high-tech industry have the strongest promoting effect on consumption, the enterprises are the second, and the R & D institutions are not significant again. The paper also calculates the critical value that should be possessed by the technology progress to promote the consumption of consumption and various RD capital, and these critical values can be used as the standard to measure whether the level of RD expenditure in our country is desirable. in addition, that result of the empirical study also prove that the government's scientific and technological expenditure can have an impact on the resident's consumption through the promotion of technological progress, the delay of the government's scientific and technological expenditure is stronger than the equivalent amount of the current RD expenditure, and the productive public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident's consumption. and the consumption public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident consumption, and when the consumption public expenditure is in a complementary relationship with the consumption demand of the residents, the consumption of the consumer is positively related to the consumption public expenditure; The degree of fiscal decentralization has a significant impact on the resident's consumption, and the decentralization of the residents' consumption and the fiscal revenue is positively related, and is negatively related to the degree of decentralization of the financial expenditure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.45;F124.3;F126.1
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