歐債危機(jī)和德國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的政策分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-28 07:27
【摘要】：2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展陷入低谷。世界各國(guó)紛紛拋出巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,振興經(jīng)濟(jì)。這些方案帶來(lái)的最直接,也是最嚴(yán)重的后果就是全球主權(quán)債務(wù)的不斷攀升。2009年希臘爆出主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī),并引發(fā)多米諾效應(yīng),蔓延至整個(gè)歐元區(qū),最終釀成了歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)。歐債危機(jī)不僅給緩慢發(fā)展的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)蒙上了一層陰影,也嚴(yán)重打擊了市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐元的信心并威脅到了歐洲一體化的進(jìn)程。隨著歐債危機(jī)的深化,歐盟以及歐洲經(jīng)貨聯(lián)盟本身的結(jié)構(gòu)性缺陷也逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。而由于歐債危機(jī),歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)內(nèi)部社會(huì)沖突不斷,歐元區(qū)各成員國(guó)之間由于對(duì)救助方案的不同意見(jiàn),矛盾也日益尖銳,特別是歐債危機(jī)重債國(guó)同歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)頭羊——德國(guó)之間爭(zhēng)吵不斷。 研究歐債危機(jī)形成的機(jī)理,揭示歐洲危機(jī)爆發(fā)的原因,分析歐債危機(jī)解決的方法,探析德國(guó)在歐債危機(jī)中的政策和立場(chǎng)成為本研究課題的出發(fā)點(diǎn)。研究目的主要集中在以下三點(diǎn)：一是從歐債危機(jī)的爆發(fā)和演變?nèi)胧?分析歐債危機(jī)的原因,解決方案以及影響；二是從德國(guó)在歐債危機(jī)中,出色的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)入手,分析德國(guó)在歐債危機(jī)中政策、立場(chǎng)及其原因,判斷其角色定位和作用,因?yàn)槿绻麤](méi)有德國(guó)的積極參與,歐債危機(jī)不可能順利解決。通過(guò)分析,可以更好地了解德國(guó)對(duì)歐債的態(tài)度和今后的政策。三是在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步探索歐債危機(jī)帶來(lái)的理論思考以及未來(lái)發(fā)展的政策和方向,從而給出針對(duì)性的建議。 在研究中,力求理論分析、文獻(xiàn)分析和比較分析能夠有機(jī)結(jié)合,宏觀和微觀層面的分析相互補(bǔ)充,靈活運(yùn)用橫向與縱向的比較和聯(lián)系的研究方法,剝繭抽絲,層層剝筍,探尋問(wèn)題的根源。本文的主要研究結(jié)論如下： 歐債危機(jī)并不是一個(gè)單純的債務(wù)問(wèn)題,它是集銀行業(yè)危機(jī)、社會(huì)危機(jī)和政治危機(jī),三位一體的危機(jī)復(fù)合體,其爆發(fā)的原因也是多方面的。最根本的原因還是結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題：一個(gè)是生產(chǎn)力與生產(chǎn)關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)錯(cuò)位,主要體現(xiàn)在財(cái)政政策的不統(tǒng)一以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)連續(xù)性的缺失；一個(gè)是南北結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題,南北經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡；一個(gè)是政治與經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題：經(jīng)貨聯(lián)盟發(fā)展的同時(shí),沒(méi)有相匹配的政治聯(lián)盟的發(fā)展。 從歐債危機(jī)救援的全過(guò)程,可以看到歐債危機(jī)主要要解決三大問(wèn)題：治標(biāo)還是治本、是執(zhí)行緊縮還是增長(zhǎng)政策、從何處籌資來(lái)紓困。解決的辦法恰恰也就是針對(duì)這三點(diǎn)：1.治本：立法,2.兼用緊縮和增長(zhǎng)：理政,3.籌資紓困：出錢(qián)。 德國(guó)作為歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的領(lǐng)頭羊,歐洲一體化的“發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)”之一,由于其良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn),在整個(gè)歐債危機(jī)救援過(guò)程中,擔(dān)任了“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者”的角色,但是,在整個(gè)救助過(guò)程中,德國(guó)從維護(hù)自身的利益和考慮國(guó)內(nèi)政治環(huán)境的角度出發(fā),所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度,在歐洲也重新引發(fā)了“德國(guó)威脅論”的論調(diào)。所以,德國(guó)在整個(gè)危機(jī)中是處于一個(gè)兩難的局面,必須要在德國(guó)利益和歐洲利益之間找到一個(gè)平衡點(diǎn)。 基于以上分析,本文最后對(duì)歐債危機(jī)的走向做了基本的展望,并提出了有針對(duì)性的建議。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis in 2008, global economic development was in a low ebb. The countries of the world have thrown huge economic stimulus packages and reinvigorate the economy. The most immediate and most serious consequence of these programmes is the rising global sovereign debt. In 2009, Greece had a sovereign debt crisis and triggered a domino effect that spread to the entire eurozone and eventually led to a European sovereign debt crisis. The euro's debt crisis is not only a shadow of the slow-growing world economy, but also the market's confidence in the euro and the process of European integration. With the deepening of the European debt crisis, the structural defects of the European Union and the European Union of Transporters themselves have also emerged. As a result of the European debt crisis, the internal social conflict of the member countries of the euro area has continued, and the contradiction is also increasingly acute among the member states of the euro area due to the different opinions on the rescue plan, especially the relationship between the European debt crisis and the European economic leader _ Germany. The mechanism of the crisis of Europe's debt crisis is studied, the reason of the crisis of Europe is revealed, the method of the settlement of the European debt crisis is analyzed, and the policy and position of Germany in the European debt crisis has become the starting point of this research project. The study aims to focus on the following three points: first, starting with the outbreak and evolution of the European debt crisis, analyzing the causes, solutions and effects of the European debt crisis; and secondly, starting with the excellent economic performance of Germany in the European debt crisis, and analyzing Germany's governance in the European debt crisis The policy, position and its causes are to judge the position and role of its role, because, without the active participation of Germany, the European debt crisis can't be solved smoothly. A better understanding of Germany's attitude to European debt and future governance through analysis The third is to further explore the theoretical thinking of the European debt crisis and the policy and direction of the future development on the basis of the above-mentioned research, so as to provide the targeted construction. On the basis of the analysis of the theory, the analysis of the literature and the comparative analysis can be combined with the analysis of the macro and the micro level, and the research methods of the comparison and the relation between the transverse and the longitudinal direction can be applied in a flexible way. The main source of this paper. The main study of this paper The following: The European debt crisis is not a simple debt problem. It is a three-in-one crisis complex that integrates the banking crisis, the social crisis and the political crisis. The most basic reason is the structural problem: one is the structural dislocation of the productivity and the production relations, which is mainly reflected in the disunity of the fiscal policy and the lack of the continuity of economic growth; one is the north-south structural problem, and the economic development of the north and the south is not balanced; one is the politics and the passage the problem of economic structure: the development of the goods alliance does not match the politics The development of the alliance. From the whole process of the crisis rescue of the European debt crisis, we can see that the European debt crisis is mainly to solve the three major problems: the management standard or the rule of management is to implement the tightening or the growth policy, from Where to raise money to be trapped. The solution is exactly the same. For this three: 1. Governance: Legislation, 2. Contraction and Growth: rule of law, 3. Financing is difficult: to pay. Germany is one of the leading 鈥淭he engine鈥，
本文編號(hào)：2362219
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis in 2008, global economic development was in a low ebb. The countries of the world have thrown huge economic stimulus packages and reinvigorate the economy. The most immediate and most serious consequence of these programmes is the rising global sovereign debt. In 2009, Greece had a sovereign debt crisis and triggered a domino effect that spread to the entire eurozone and eventually led to a European sovereign debt crisis. The euro's debt crisis is not only a shadow of the slow-growing world economy, but also the market's confidence in the euro and the process of European integration. With the deepening of the European debt crisis, the structural defects of the European Union and the European Union of Transporters themselves have also emerged. As a result of the European debt crisis, the internal social conflict of the member countries of the euro area has continued, and the contradiction is also increasingly acute among the member states of the euro area due to the different opinions on the rescue plan, especially the relationship between the European debt crisis and the European economic leader _ Germany. The mechanism of the crisis of Europe's debt crisis is studied, the reason of the crisis of Europe is revealed, the method of the settlement of the European debt crisis is analyzed, and the policy and position of Germany in the European debt crisis has become the starting point of this research project. The study aims to focus on the following three points: first, starting with the outbreak and evolution of the European debt crisis, analyzing the causes, solutions and effects of the European debt crisis; and secondly, starting with the excellent economic performance of Germany in the European debt crisis, and analyzing Germany's governance in the European debt crisis The policy, position and its causes are to judge the position and role of its role, because, without the active participation of Germany, the European debt crisis can't be solved smoothly. A better understanding of Germany's attitude to European debt and future governance through analysis The third is to further explore the theoretical thinking of the European debt crisis and the policy and direction of the future development on the basis of the above-mentioned research, so as to provide the targeted construction. On the basis of the analysis of the theory, the analysis of the literature and the comparative analysis can be combined with the analysis of the macro and the micro level, and the research methods of the comparison and the relation between the transverse and the longitudinal direction can be applied in a flexible way. The main source of this paper. The main study of this paper The following: The European debt crisis is not a simple debt problem. It is a three-in-one crisis complex that integrates the banking crisis, the social crisis and the political crisis. The most basic reason is the structural problem: one is the structural dislocation of the productivity and the production relations, which is mainly reflected in the disunity of the fiscal policy and the lack of the continuity of economic growth; one is the north-south structural problem, and the economic development of the north and the south is not balanced; one is the politics and the passage the problem of economic structure: the development of the goods alliance does not match the politics The development of the alliance. From the whole process of the crisis rescue of the European debt crisis, we can see that the European debt crisis is mainly to solve the three major problems: the management standard or the rule of management is to implement the tightening or the growth policy, from Where to raise money to be trapped. The solution is exactly the same. For this three: 1. Governance: Legislation, 2. Contraction and Growth: rule of law, 3. Financing is difficult: to pay. Germany is one of the leading 鈥淭he engine鈥，
本文編號(hào)：2362219
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