【摘要】：本研究的主要目的是通過門檻回歸模型來檢驗增加政府轉(zhuǎn)移支付是否有助于改善生育率,并且評估不同解釋變量對生育率的影響及長期經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的可行性。本研究首先梳理影響生育率變量的相關(guān)文獻及實證研究,再通過Hansen(1996,2000)的門檻回歸模型,考慮不同解釋變量(人均GDP增長率、轉(zhuǎn)移支付、稅式支出、失業(yè)率、死亡率、教育支出及移入人口)分別對生育率的相關(guān)顯著性影響,對OECD國家的數(shù)據(jù)進行實證檢驗。實證結(jié)果顯示,實際人均GDP增長率、失業(yè)率和死亡率均與生育率呈現(xiàn)顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系,而提高稅式支出則能增加生育率水平;教育支出對于生育率的影響存在不確定性,實證結(jié)果顯示,在小于等于門檻值時和生育率為負相關(guān),但是大于門檻值時則為正相關(guān);轉(zhuǎn)移支付對生育率的影響,在小于等于門檻值時為正相關(guān),但是大于門檻值時為負相關(guān)。從長期考慮,應(yīng)提高轉(zhuǎn)移支付,增加教育補貼和減稅措施,改善日益下降的生育率水平。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this study is to test whether increasing government transfer payment can improve fertility rate and to evaluate the effect of different explanatory variables on fertility rate and the feasibility of long-term economic development through threshold regression model. This study firstly combs the relevant literature and empirical research on the influence of fertility variables, then through the threshold regression model of Hansen (1996 / 2000), considering the different explanatory variables (per capita GDP growth rate, transfer payment, tax expenditure, unemployment rate, mortality rate, etc. The significant effects of education expenditure and imported population on the fertility rate were analyzed. The data of OECD countries were tested. The empirical results show that the real per capita GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and mortality are negatively correlated with the fertility rate, while the increase of tax expenditure can increase the fertility level. The effect of education expenditure on fertility is uncertain. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between education expenditure and fertility when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but a positive correlation when it is larger than the threshold. The effect of transfer payment on fertility is positively correlated when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but it is negatively correlated when it is larger than the threshold. In the long run, transfer payments should be increased, education subsidies and tax cuts should be increased, and declining fertility levels should be improved.
【作者單位】： 南開大學經(jīng)濟學院中國特色社會主義經(jīng)濟建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【分類號】：C924.1;F811.4
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本文編號：2348435