【摘要】：本研究的主要目的是通過(guò)門(mén)檻回歸模型來(lái)檢驗(yàn)增加政府轉(zhuǎn)移支付是否有助于改善生育率,并且評(píng)估不同解釋變量對(duì)生育率的影響及長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的可行性。本研究首先梳理影響生育率變量的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及實(shí)證研究,再通過(guò)Hansen(1996,2000)的門(mén)檻回歸模型,考慮不同解釋變量(人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率、轉(zhuǎn)移支付、稅式支出、失業(yè)率、死亡率、教育支出及移入人口)分別對(duì)生育率的相關(guān)顯著性影響,對(duì)OECD國(guó)家的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,實(shí)際人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率、失業(yè)率和死亡率均與生育率呈現(xiàn)顯著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,而提高稅式支出則能增加生育率水平;教育支出對(duì)于生育率的影響存在不確定性,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,在小于等于門(mén)檻值時(shí)和生育率為負(fù)相關(guān),但是大于門(mén)檻值時(shí)則為正相關(guān);轉(zhuǎn)移支付對(duì)生育率的影響,在小于等于門(mén)檻值時(shí)為正相關(guān),但是大于門(mén)檻值時(shí)為負(fù)相關(guān)。從長(zhǎng)期考慮,應(yīng)提高轉(zhuǎn)移支付,增加教育補(bǔ)貼和減稅措施,改善日益下降的生育率水平。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this study is to test whether increasing government transfer payment can improve fertility rate and to evaluate the effect of different explanatory variables on fertility rate and the feasibility of long-term economic development through threshold regression model. This study firstly combs the relevant literature and empirical research on the influence of fertility variables, then through the threshold regression model of Hansen (1996 / 2000), considering the different explanatory variables (per capita GDP growth rate, transfer payment, tax expenditure, unemployment rate, mortality rate, etc. The significant effects of education expenditure and imported population on the fertility rate were analyzed. The data of OECD countries were tested. The empirical results show that the real per capita GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and mortality are negatively correlated with the fertility rate, while the increase of tax expenditure can increase the fertility level. The effect of education expenditure on fertility is uncertain. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between education expenditure and fertility when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but a positive correlation when it is larger than the threshold. The effect of transfer payment on fertility is positively correlated when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but it is negatively correlated when it is larger than the threshold. In the long run, transfer payments should be increased, education subsidies and tax cuts should be increased, and declining fertility levels should be improved.
【作者單位】： 南開(kāi)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.1;F811.4
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本文編號(hào)：2348435