【摘要】：以中國省級面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用面板向量自回歸模型估計了財政政策、貨幣政策對中國就業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,擴(kuò)張性財政政策對城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都有很強(qiáng)的促進(jìn)作用;第二,增加貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策對城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)的促進(jìn)作用有限,然而對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有很強(qiáng)的促進(jìn)作用;第三,降低利率的貨幣政策對城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用有限,并且要滯后兩年才能顯現(xiàn)出來。因此,為了促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長,應(yīng)當(dāng)以擴(kuò)張性的財政政策為主,同時輔之以增加貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策,以發(fā)揮其促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用,從而夯實就業(yè)增長的基礎(chǔ)。鑒于利率對就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響具有滯后性,應(yīng)當(dāng)保持利率政策的穩(wěn)定性。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China, this paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment and economic growth in China by using panel vector autoregressive model. The results are as follows: first, The expansionary fiscal policy has a strong promoting effect on both urban employment and economic growth. Second, the expansionary monetary policy that increases the money supply has a limited effect on urban employment, but it has a strong promoting effect on economic growth. Third, Monetary policies that cut interest rates have a limited impact on urban employment and economic growth, and will take two years to show up. Therefore, in order to promote the employment growth, we should take the expansionary fiscal policy as the main factor, at the same time, supplement it with the expansionary monetary policy of increasing the money supply, so as to play its role of promoting the economic growth and consolidate the foundation of the employment growth. In view of the lagging effect of interest rate on employment and economic growth, the stability of interest rate policy should be maintained.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)勞動經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項目“財政政策、貨幣政策的就業(yè)效應(yīng)研究”(13CJY021)
【分類號】：F249.2;F812.0;F822.0

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