【摘要】：近些年來,伴隨我國(guó)GDP總量逐年增加,我國(guó)政府財(cái)政收支規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)速度也連續(xù)多年高于GDP增長(zhǎng)速度,每年財(cái)政支出規(guī)模也在不斷擴(kuò)大,從而帶來財(cái)政對(duì)預(yù)算單位的支出安排了預(yù)算,但是預(yù)算單位的實(shí)際預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度往往偏慢問題,造成財(cái)政資金長(zhǎng)期閑置在各部門和單位,嚴(yán)重影響了預(yù)算執(zhí)行的效率性和嚴(yán)肅性,一定程度上造成了財(cái)政資金的閑置和浪費(fèi)。因此,加快財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度,是提高財(cái)政資金運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)效率,盤活存量資金的重要手段,也是目前財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理部門急需解決的問題。本文首先具體分析了目前財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理的現(xiàn)狀,分析了目前存在的預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度偏慢的問題及其原因,闡述了加快財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度的必要性。其次,以X市2012年預(yù)算執(zhí)行數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的方法通過建立決策樹和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,開展財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度預(yù)警預(yù)測(cè)。另外,詳細(xì)闡述了X市財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度預(yù)警預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)施過程,結(jié)合X市財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理具體實(shí)際從業(yè)務(wù)理解、數(shù)據(jù)理解、建立制度、統(tǒng)一數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、整合信息系統(tǒng)、提取數(shù)據(jù)、建立數(shù)據(jù)集市和數(shù)據(jù)倉庫、建立數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量體系、預(yù)算執(zhí)行進(jìn)度數(shù)據(jù)挖掘建立模型、模型評(píng)估、發(fā)布結(jié)果等方面進(jìn)行分析。最后,總結(jié)前面所作出的分析預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)未來模型改善做出展望,以使財(cái)政預(yù)算執(zhí)行管理更加科學(xué)化、精細(xì)化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of the total amount of GDP in China, the scale of our government's fiscal revenue and expenditure has been increasing faster than that of GDP for many years, and the scale of annual fiscal expenditure is also expanding. As a result, the expenditure of the budget units has been budgeted for, but the actual budget implementation progress of the budget units is often slow, resulting in the fiscal funds standing idle in various departments and units for a long time. It seriously affects the efficiency and seriousness of budget execution, and results in the idle and waste of financial funds to some extent. Therefore, speeding up the progress of financial budget implementation is an important means to improve the efficiency of financial funds operation and activate the stock funds, and is also an urgent problem to be solved by the financial budget execution management department at present. This paper first analyzes the current situation of budget execution and management, analyzes the problems and causes of the slow budget implementation, and expounds the necessity of speeding up the budget implementation. Secondly, based on the data of budget execution in X city in 2012, the prediction of budget implementation progress is carried out by establishing decision tree and neural network model by using the method of data mining. In addition, the implementation process of early warning and forecasting of financial budget implementation progress in X city is elaborated in detail. Combining with the actual situation of financial budget implementation management in X city, the system is established from the perspective of business understanding, data understanding, establishment of systems, unification of data standards, and integration of information systems. Data extraction, data Mart and data warehouse, data quality system, budget execution schedule data mining model, model evaluation, release results and so on are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the analysis and forecast made before, and looks forward to the improvement of the future model in order to make the budget execution and management more scientific and refined.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F812.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 秦雯;;大數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代有多遠(yuǎn)?[J];廣告大觀(綜合版);2013年02期

2 馮海超;;透視美國(guó)大數(shù)據(jù)爆發(fā)全景[J];互聯(lián)網(wǎng)周刊;2013年01期

3 馮海超;;大數(shù)據(jù)的中國(guó)機(jī)會(huì)[J];互聯(lián)網(wǎng)周刊;2013年01期

4 柳巧玲;電子政務(wù)環(huán)境下的政府知識(shí)管理[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)師;2005年07期

5 王雙成,苑森淼;具有丟失數(shù)據(jù)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)學(xué)習(xí)研究[J];軟件學(xué)報(bào);2004年07期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉君強(qiáng);海量數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)研究[D];浙江大學(xué);2003年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 許藝;基于數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的零散稅收預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2013年

2 陳夭元;數(shù)據(jù)挖掘在部門預(yù)算中的應(yīng)用研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2013年

3 李艷美;基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘應(yīng)用研究[D];西安電子科技大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號(hào)：2236558