【摘要】：財政可持續(xù)性研究是財政政策可持續(xù)性研究的簡稱,它是宏觀經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的一項重要課題,早在上世紀20年代就已經(jīng)成為了西方國家財政研究的重點,但早期的研究對象多集中于歐洲發(fā)達國家。近年來,隨著全球金融危機的爆發(fā),歐洲各國的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機頻繁上演,同時美國財政赤字持續(xù)上升、國債規(guī)模急劇增加、遭遇主權(quán)評級下降,財政可持續(xù)性堪憂,日本高額的赤字率和債務(wù)負擔率也使其財政可持續(xù)性受到嚴重質(zhì)疑。因此,財政可持續(xù)問題再一次成為全球理論界關(guān)注的熱點。 2008年全球金融危機過后,為阻止經(jīng)濟下行、保證經(jīng)濟增長目標,我國也開始實行新一輪的積極財政政策,同時伴隨而來的是不斷增加的財政赤字和節(jié)節(jié)攀升的國債規(guī)模。不少機構(gòu)、專家預測我國的國債規(guī)模在未來的幾年內(nèi)仍將持續(xù)升高,另外再加上大規(guī)模的地方政府債務(wù)、大量的或有負債以及即將面臨的人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變給經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和財政支出帶來的壓力,都將使我國的財政可持續(xù)性面臨嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。因此,為了了解我國財政的可持續(xù)狀態(tài),本文對我國的財政可持續(xù)性進行深入具體的研究,并以此來考查我國未來的財政穩(wěn)定性和國債的信用風險,對我國接下來積極財政政策持續(xù)實施的宏觀戰(zhàn)略計劃提供政策參考。 本文從界定財政可持續(xù)性的相關(guān)概念開始,首先明確了財政可持續(xù)性在文中的內(nèi)涵,并且對政府債務(wù)的概念和范疇進行了闡述。同時,考察分析了改革開放以來我國的財政政策實踐以及財政收支和赤字、國債的發(fā)展路徑并通過赤字率、債務(wù)負擔率等幾個簡單的相對指標對我國的財政可持續(xù)性狀況進行初步的判斷。 其次,本文從政府跨期預算約束的理論框架入手,根據(jù)Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012)的推導過程,通過實證檢驗的方法,利用Eviews6.0軟件對我國1978-2012年期間的財政數(shù)據(jù)進行計量分析。結(jié)果表明,1978-2012年間我國的財政收入和支出之間確實存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且協(xié)整系數(shù)小于1。因此滿足政府跨期預算約束條件,也就是說我國的財政政策在此期間是可持續(xù)的。但是,鑒于政府跨期預算約束模型存在明顯的局限性,本文同時還運用Blanchard(1990)提出的可持續(xù)性缺口指標,根據(jù)Ales Krejdl(2006)的具體缺口指標推導過程,檢驗我國1995-2012年的財政可持續(xù)性狀況,并對未來短期(1年)和中期(3年)的可持續(xù)性缺口進行預測,結(jié)果表明2008年以后我國的財政不可持續(xù)性風險明顯加大。接著,本文還分析了未來可能會影響我國財政可持續(xù)性的幾個主要風險因素,包括大規(guī)模的地方政府債務(wù)、政府最終可能承擔的或有債務(wù)以及人口老齡化將會帶來的社會保障支出缺口。 最后,對上文中的理論分析和實證檢驗結(jié)果進行進一步的分析總結(jié),并針對上述可能會威脅我國未來財政可持續(xù)性的風險因素提出針對性的措施建議。
[Abstract]:Financial sustainability research is the abbreviation of fiscal policy sustainability research, it is an important subject in the macroeconomic field, as early as the 1920s has become the focus of financial research in western countries. But early studies focused on developed countries in Europe. In recent years, with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis of European countries frequently staged. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit of the United States continues to rise, the scale of the national debt increases sharply, the sovereign rating drops, and the financial sustainability is worrying. Japan's high deficit rate and debt burden rate also seriously questioned its fiscal sustainability. After the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to prevent the economic downturn and ensure the goal of economic growth, China has also begun to implement a new round of positive fiscal policy. It was accompanied by rising deficits and rising government debt. Many institutions, experts predict that the size of China's national debt will continue to rise in the next few years, in addition to large-scale local government debt. A large number of contingent liabilities and the pressure on economic development and fiscal expenditure brought by the imminent demographic transformation will make our country's fiscal sustainability face a severe challenge. Therefore, in order to understand the sustainable state of our country's finance, this paper carries on the thorough and concrete research on the financial sustainability of our country, and examines the future financial stability of our country and the credit risk of the national debt. It provides policy reference for the macro-strategic plan that our country carries out actively and continuously. This paper begins with the definition of fiscal sustainability, first defines the connotation of fiscal sustainability in this paper, and expounds the concept and category of government debt. At the same time, it examines and analyzes the fiscal policy practice, the fiscal revenue and expenditure, the deficit, the development path and the deficit rate of our country since the reform and opening up. Several simple relative indicators, such as debt burden ratio, are used to judge the financial sustainability of our country. Secondly, this paper starts with the theoretical framework of government inter-period budget constraint, according to the derivation process of Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012, through the method of empirical test, uses Eviews6.0 software to carry on the econometric analysis to our country's financial data from 1978 to 2012. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China from 1978 to 2012, and the cointegration coefficient is less than 1. Therefore, to meet the constraints of government intertemporal budget, that is to say, the fiscal policy of our country is sustainable in this period. However, in view of the obvious limitations of the inter-period budget constraint model of the government, this paper also uses the sustainability gap index proposed by Blanchard (1990), according to the derivation process of the specific gap index of Ales Krejdl (2006, to test the fiscal sustainability of our country from 1995 to 2012. The short (1 year) and medium term (3 years) of sustainability gap in the future are forecasted. The results show that the financial unsustainable risk is obviously increased after 2008 in China. Then, this paper also analyzes several major risk factors that may affect the fiscal sustainability of our country in the future, including large-scale local government debt. The government's eventual contingent liabilities and the gap in social security spending that will result from an ageing population. Finally, the theoretical analysis and empirical test results mentioned above are further analyzed and summarized, and suggestions are put forward for the risk factors mentioned above which may threaten the future financial sustainability of our country.
【學位授予單位】：安徽大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.9

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