【摘要】：財(cái)政可持續(xù)性研究是財(cái)政政策可持續(xù)性研究的簡稱,它是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的一項(xiàng)重要課題,早在上世紀(jì)20年代就已經(jīng)成為了西方國家財(cái)政研究的重點(diǎn),但早期的研究對(duì)象多集中于歐洲發(fā)達(dá)國家。近年來,隨著全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),歐洲各國的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)頻繁上演,同時(shí)美國財(cái)政赤字持續(xù)上升、國債規(guī)模急劇增加、遭遇主權(quán)評(píng)級(jí)下降,財(cái)政可持續(xù)性堪憂,日本高額的赤字率和債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)率也使其財(cái)政可持續(xù)性受到嚴(yán)重質(zhì)疑。因此,財(cái)政可持續(xù)問題再一次成為全球理論界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。 2008年全球金融危機(jī)過后,為阻止經(jīng)濟(jì)下行、保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo),我國也開始實(shí)行新一輪的積極財(cái)政政策,同時(shí)伴隨而來的是不斷增加的財(cái)政赤字和節(jié)節(jié)攀升的國債規(guī)模。不少機(jī)構(gòu)、專家預(yù)測我國的國債規(guī)模在未來的幾年內(nèi)仍將持續(xù)升高,另外再加上大規(guī)模的地方政府債務(wù)、大量的或有負(fù)債以及即將面臨的人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和財(cái)政支出帶來的壓力,都將使我國的財(cái)政可持續(xù)性面臨嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。因此,為了了解我國財(cái)政的可持續(xù)狀態(tài),本文對(duì)我國的財(cái)政可持續(xù)性進(jìn)行深入具體的研究,并以此來考查我國未來的財(cái)政穩(wěn)定性和國債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)我國接下來積極財(cái)政政策持續(xù)實(shí)施的宏觀戰(zhàn)略計(jì)劃提供政策參考。 本文從界定財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的相關(guān)概念開始,首先明確了財(cái)政可持續(xù)性在文中的內(nèi)涵,并且對(duì)政府債務(wù)的概念和范疇進(jìn)行了闡述。同時(shí),考察分析了改革開放以來我國的財(cái)政政策實(shí)踐以及財(cái)政收支和赤字、國債的發(fā)展路徑并通過赤字率、債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)率等幾個(gè)簡單的相對(duì)指標(biāo)對(duì)我國的財(cái)政可持續(xù)性狀況進(jìn)行初步的判斷。 其次,本文從政府跨期預(yù)算約束的理論框架入手,根據(jù)Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012)的推導(dǎo)過程,通過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的方法,利用Eviews6.0軟件對(duì)我國1978-2012年期間的財(cái)政數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析。結(jié)果表明,1978-2012年間我國的財(cái)政收入和支出之間確實(shí)存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且協(xié)整系數(shù)小于1。因此滿足政府跨期預(yù)算約束條件,也就是說我國的財(cái)政政策在此期間是可持續(xù)的。但是,鑒于政府跨期預(yù)算約束模型存在明顯的局限性,本文同時(shí)還運(yùn)用Blanchard(1990)提出的可持續(xù)性缺口指標(biāo),根據(jù)Ales Krejdl(2006)的具體缺口指標(biāo)推導(dǎo)過程,檢驗(yàn)我國1995-2012年的財(cái)政可持續(xù)性狀況,并對(duì)未來短期(1年)和中期(3年)的可持續(xù)性缺口進(jìn)行預(yù)測,結(jié)果表明2008年以后我國的財(cái)政不可持續(xù)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)明顯加大。接著,本文還分析了未來可能會(huì)影響我國財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的幾個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,包括大規(guī)模的地方政府債務(wù)、政府最終可能承擔(dān)的或有債務(wù)以及人口老齡化將會(huì)帶來的社會(huì)保障支出缺口。 最后,對(duì)上文中的理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的分析總結(jié),并針對(duì)上述可能會(huì)威脅我國未來財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素提出針對(duì)性的措施建議。
[Abstract]:Financial sustainability research is the abbreviation of fiscal policy sustainability research, it is an important subject in the macroeconomic field, as early as the 1920s has become the focus of financial research in western countries. But early studies focused on developed countries in Europe. In recent years, with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis of European countries frequently staged. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit of the United States continues to rise, the scale of the national debt increases sharply, the sovereign rating drops, and the financial sustainability is worrying. Japan's high deficit rate and debt burden rate also seriously questioned its fiscal sustainability. After the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to prevent the economic downturn and ensure the goal of economic growth, China has also begun to implement a new round of positive fiscal policy. It was accompanied by rising deficits and rising government debt. Many institutions, experts predict that the size of China's national debt will continue to rise in the next few years, in addition to large-scale local government debt. A large number of contingent liabilities and the pressure on economic development and fiscal expenditure brought by the imminent demographic transformation will make our country's fiscal sustainability face a severe challenge. Therefore, in order to understand the sustainable state of our country's finance, this paper carries on the thorough and concrete research on the financial sustainability of our country, and examines the future financial stability of our country and the credit risk of the national debt. It provides policy reference for the macro-strategic plan that our country carries out actively and continuously. This paper begins with the definition of fiscal sustainability, first defines the connotation of fiscal sustainability in this paper, and expounds the concept and category of government debt. At the same time, it examines and analyzes the fiscal policy practice, the fiscal revenue and expenditure, the deficit, the development path and the deficit rate of our country since the reform and opening up. Several simple relative indicators, such as debt burden ratio, are used to judge the financial sustainability of our country. Secondly, this paper starts with the theoretical framework of government inter-period budget constraint, according to the derivation process of Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012, through the method of empirical test, uses Eviews6.0 software to carry on the econometric analysis to our country's financial data from 1978 to 2012. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China from 1978 to 2012, and the cointegration coefficient is less than 1. Therefore, to meet the constraints of government intertemporal budget, that is to say, the fiscal policy of our country is sustainable in this period. However, in view of the obvious limitations of the inter-period budget constraint model of the government, this paper also uses the sustainability gap index proposed by Blanchard (1990), according to the derivation process of the specific gap index of Ales Krejdl (2006, to test the fiscal sustainability of our country from 1995 to 2012. The short (1 year) and medium term (3 years) of sustainability gap in the future are forecasted. The results show that the financial unsustainable risk is obviously increased after 2008 in China. Then, this paper also analyzes several major risk factors that may affect the fiscal sustainability of our country in the future, including large-scale local government debt. The government's eventual contingent liabilities and the gap in social security spending that will result from an ageing population. Finally, the theoretical analysis and empirical test results mentioned above are further analyzed and summarized, and suggestions are put forward for the risk factors mentioned above which may threaten the future financial sustainability of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.9

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 魏陸;我國國債規(guī)模的可持續(xù)性及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2001年09期

2 匡小平;論地方財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的分析方法[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2004年06期

3 陳共,類承曜;關(guān)于我國債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)率及債務(wù)依存度的考察[J];財(cái)政研究;2002年11期

4 鄧子基;財(cái)政平衡觀與積極財(cái)政政策的可持續(xù)性[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2001年11期

5 袁佩佳;;資產(chǎn)負(fù)債管理框架下的地方財(cái)政可持續(xù)性分析[J];地方財(cái)政研究;2006年03期

6 鄒元婷;許莉;;我國財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的實(shí)證分析:1952—2007[J];改革與戰(zhàn)略;2010年03期

7 鄧曉蘭;黃顯林;張旭濤;;公共債務(wù)、財(cái)政可持續(xù)性與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[J];財(cái)貿(mào)研究;2013年04期

8 李明亮;;29.6萬億! 中國公共債務(wù)大盤點(diǎn)[J];股市動(dòng)態(tài)分析;2011年47期

9 王 霞,趙行姝;從美國赤字財(cái)政政策的演變看我國財(cái)政政策的選擇[J];衡水師專學(xué)報(bào);2001年01期

10 周茂榮;駱傳朋;;歐盟財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的實(shí)證研究[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2006年12期

，

本文編號(hào)：2214118