中國財政政策不確定性的指數(shù)構(gòu)建、特征與誘因
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-30 15:06
【摘要】：目前文獻(xiàn)關(guān)注的財政政策不確定性問題多是以總的財政政策和國外的數(shù)據(jù)為主,還沒有文獻(xiàn)討論中國財政政策及其具體項目不確定性的指數(shù)構(gòu)建問題。根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的指數(shù)統(tǒng)計方法和漢語中財政政策的語境特征,本文構(gòu)建了中國的財政政策不確定性指數(shù)體系,并結(jié)合現(xiàn)實分析了數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計特征和影響不確定性的主要誘因。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):首先,本文的指數(shù)結(jié)果是穩(wěn)健的,且財政支出政策不確定性的程度高于稅收政策;其次,財政政策不確定性指數(shù)具有明顯的"區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)移"特征,存在"低平均值和低波動性"與"高平均值和高波動性"兩個區(qū)制;再次,財政政策不確定性與經(jīng)濟增長、貨幣政策的不確定性存在相關(guān)性,研究中國財政政策不確定性有現(xiàn)實意義;最后,本國內(nèi)部因素是影響財政政策不確定性的主要因素。
[Abstract]:At present, most of the financial policy uncertainties concerned by the literature are based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data, but there is no literature discussion on the construction of the index of the uncertainty of China's fiscal policy and its specific projects. Based on the standard exponential statistical method and the contextual characteristics of fiscal policy in Chinese, this paper constructs the uncertainty index system of fiscal policy in China, and analyzes the statistical characteristics of the data and the main inducements to affect the uncertainty. It is found that: first, the index result of this paper is stable, and the degree of uncertainty of fiscal expenditure policy is higher than that of tax policy; secondly, the index of fiscal policy uncertainty has obvious characteristics of "regional system transfer". There are two regional systems of "low average value and low volatility" and "high average value and high volatility". Thirdly, the uncertainty of fiscal policy is related to economic growth and the uncertainty of monetary policy. It is of practical significance to study the uncertainty of fiscal policy in China, and finally, the internal factors are the main factors affecting the uncertainty of fiscal policy.
【作者單位】： 南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)財政與稅務(wù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金青年項目“地方舉債融資的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)與風(fēng)險預(yù)警機制研究”(15CJY077) 江蘇高�！扒嗨{(lán)工程”資助(2017.6-2020.7) 江蘇省高校哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)基金項目“江蘇城市舉債融資的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)”(2015SJB136)
【分類號】：F812.0
[Abstract]:At present, most of the financial policy uncertainties concerned by the literature are based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data, but there is no literature discussion on the construction of the index of the uncertainty of China's fiscal policy and its specific projects. Based on the standard exponential statistical method and the contextual characteristics of fiscal policy in Chinese, this paper constructs the uncertainty index system of fiscal policy in China, and analyzes the statistical characteristics of the data and the main inducements to affect the uncertainty. It is found that: first, the index result of this paper is stable, and the degree of uncertainty of fiscal expenditure policy is higher than that of tax policy; secondly, the index of fiscal policy uncertainty has obvious characteristics of "regional system transfer". There are two regional systems of "low average value and low volatility" and "high average value and high volatility". Thirdly, the uncertainty of fiscal policy is related to economic growth and the uncertainty of monetary policy. It is of practical significance to study the uncertainty of fiscal policy in China, and finally, the internal factors are the main factors affecting the uncertainty of fiscal policy.
【作者單位】： 南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)財政與稅務(wù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金青年項目“地方舉債融資的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)與風(fēng)險預(yù)警機制研究”(15CJY077) 江蘇高�！扒嗨{(lán)工程”資助(2017.6-2020.7) 江蘇省高校哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)基金項目“江蘇城市舉債融資的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)”(2015SJB136)
【分類號】：F812.0
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