【摘要】：自改革開放以來，尤其我國建立了市場經濟體制之后，國家財政的支出結構逐步調整變革使得我國財政體制的改革已經取得顯著的成效，對財政體制改革的重點是改革財政分配關系，包括改革中央和地方政府之間的分配關系。對地方財政的改革既是我國財政體制改革的重要目標，又是我國社會主義市場經濟改革的重要組成部分。因此，應將調整和優(yōu)化財政支出問題放在重要的位置。財政改革、發(fā)展調整和優(yōu)化財政支出結構將成為一項在一定時期面臨的重要任務。把考察支出歷史變動作為起點，分析我國財政支出結構中可能存在的問題，總結并推行積極的財政政策，通過系統(tǒng)準確的分析中國主要的大中型城市的財政支出結構和城市區(qū)域發(fā)展的影響因素，將對城市經濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論性的指導和建議。 本文研究的數(shù)據參考《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒2011》中的第八部分：財政。全國省市自治區(qū)(不包含香港、澳門、臺灣地區(qū))總共31個城市，針對這31個城市列出13項財政支出指標，本文即對這31個城市的經濟指標進行研究。 本文使用的實驗方法是回歸分析、主成分分析、主成分聚類和協(xié)整分析。 (1)回歸分析是一種確定呈依存關系的變量定向關系的統(tǒng)計方法，具有廣泛應用價值。根據自變量與因變量之間的關系劃分，，將回歸分析分為一元和多元線性回歸分析。 (2)主成分分析是一種通過將多個相關性的變量化為少量個數(shù)綜合變量的一種統(tǒng)計分析方法。 (3)主成分聚類的思想是對樣本主成分分析，再對提取的主成分進行聚類分析，計算主成分綜合得分對各個城市進行綜合排名進而對城市發(fā)展進行綜合評價。 (4)協(xié)整分析。兩時間序列具有協(xié)整關系，必須滿足時間序列變量是平穩(wěn)均衡的關系，才可對平穩(wěn)均衡的變量進行協(xié)整檢驗。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after the establishment of a market economy system in China, the gradual adjustment and transformation of the expenditure structure of the state finance has made remarkable achievements in the reform of the financial system in our country. The emphasis of the reform of the fiscal system is to reform the financial distribution relationship, including the distribution relationship between the central and local governments. The reform of local finance is not only the important goal of our country's financial system reform, but also the important part of our socialist market economy reform. Therefore, the adjustment and optimization of fiscal expenditure should be placed in an important position. Fiscal reform, development, adjustment and optimization of fiscal expenditure structure will become an important task in a certain period. Taking the historical changes of expenditure as the starting point, this paper analyzes the problems that may exist in the structure of fiscal expenditure in China, summarizes and carries out positive fiscal policies. Through the systematic and accurate analysis of the financial expenditure structure of major large and medium-sized cities in China and the factors affecting the development of urban areas, it will provide theoretical guidance and suggestions for the sustainable development of urban economy. The data of this paper refer to the eighth part of the Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2011: finance. There are 31 cities in the whole country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). In view of these 31 cities, 13 fiscal expenditure indexes are listed. In this paper, the economic indicators of these 31 cities are studied. The experimental methods used in this paper are regression analysis, principal component clustering and cointegration analysis. (1) regression analysis is a statistical method for determining the directional relationship of dependent variables, which has wide application value. According to the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables, The regression analysis is divided into univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis. (2) Principal component analysis (PCA) is a statistical analysis method by converting multiple correlated variables into a small number of complex variables. The idea of clustering is to analyze the principal components of samples. Then the extracted principal components are analyzed by cluster analysis, and the synthetic scores of principal components are calculated to rank each city synthetically. (4) Co-integration analysis. The two time series have cointegration relation, so we must satisfy that the time series variables are stationary equilibrium, then we can test the stable equilibrium variables.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.45

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