本文選題：含糊 + 跨國直接投資　； 參考：《安徽工程大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：假設一家外國公司面臨選擇出口產(chǎn)品,還是進入外國市場直接投資生產(chǎn)銷售的問題。由于很難預測東道國經(jīng)濟、政治的穩(wěn)定性,所以就存在對其市場預測的不確定性。而如果公司選擇跨國直接投資,將會面臨更多的不確定,這將會對投資決策產(chǎn)生一定的影響。所以我們將Knight不確定性引入模型。另一方面,通過對經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀的分析不難發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率變動、通脹等對跨國直接投資和稅收政策問題都存在一定程度的影響。因此,我們在研究Knight不確定性對跨國直接投資和稅收政策影響的基礎上,又分別考慮了匯率變動、服從均值回復的匯率變動和通脹等因素,建立符合現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟狀況的模型,可以為跨國公司決策提供更有效的理論分析依據(jù)。 本論文主要研究了一家公司在含糊環(huán)境下分別考慮通脹、匯率變動及服從均值回復過程的匯率變動的跨國直接投資(FDI)和稅收政策問題。在第二章中,我們研究了帶通脹的跨國直接投資問題。利用伊藤公式推導出含糊下GDP水平變化的動力學方程。然后結合公司進行跨國投資決策時需要繳納的法人稅,給定跨國直接投資的價值,并在跨國直接投資價值最大化標準下,分析了公司進行(不可逆)跨國直接投資的最優(yōu)時間,通過解HJB方程推導出了公司由出口轉(zhuǎn)向跨國直接投資時的最優(yōu)GDP水平。最后進行數(shù)值模擬,定量分析了預期通脹率和含糊等參數(shù)對公司跨國直接投資策略的影響。 在第三章中,我們探討了匯率變動為隨機情形下的跨國直接投資和稅收政策問題。首先利用上面的推導方法得出公司由出口轉(zhuǎn)向跨國直接投資時的最優(yōu)GDP水平,推導了東道國的最優(yōu)稅收政策。其次我們還分別討論了合作博弈和非合作博弈情形下的臨界GDP水平,以及東道國政府和外國公司所得的利潤。最后分析了含糊和匯率變動等參數(shù)對合作博弈和非合作博弈這兩種情形下跨國直接投資決策的影響。 在第四章中,假設匯率變動服從均值回復過程,利用上面的推導方法得出跨國直接投資的最優(yōu)GDP水平,并分析了此時含糊、匯率和回復參數(shù)等對公司跨國直接投資的影響。結果表明：相比較于匯率變動為隨機情形,外國公司的跨國直接投資決策會很大程度上受到東道國政府的干預力度影響,因此他們會更加關注東道國的調(diào)控政策,確定進入東道國市場的最優(yōu)時間,以獲取更大的收益。
[Abstract]:Suppose a foreign company is faced with the question of whether to choose exports or direct investment in production and sales in foreign markets. Because it is difficult to predict the economic and political stability of the host country, there is uncertainty about its market forecast. But if the company chooses the transnational direct investment, will face more uncertainty, this will have the certain influence to the investment decision. So we introduce Knight uncertainty into the model. On the other hand, it is not difficult to find that the change of exchange rate and inflation have some influence on the problems of transnational direct investment and tax policy. Therefore, on the basis of studying the influence of Knight uncertainty on transnational direct investment and tax policies, we have separately considered the exchange rate changes, followed by the exchange rate changes and inflation returned from the mean value, and established a model in line with the real economic situation. It can provide a more effective theoretical basis for multinational companies to make decisions. In this paper, we mainly study the problem of transnational direct investment (FDI) and tax policy which consider inflation, exchange rate change and exchange rate change under vague environment. In the second chapter, we study the problem of transnational direct investment with inflation. The dynamics equation of GDP level change under vagueness is derived by using Ito formula. Then combined with the corporate tax that the company has to pay when making the transnational investment decision, given the value of the transnational direct investment, and under the criterion of maximizing the value of the transnational direct investment, we analyze the optimal time for the company to make the (irreversible) transnational direct investment. By solving the HJB equation, the optimal GDP level of the company from export to transnational direct investment is derived. Finally, numerical simulation is carried out to quantitatively analyze the effect of expected inflation rate and ambiguity on firms' transnational direct investment strategy. In the third chapter, we discuss the transnational direct investment and tax policy under the stochastic exchange rate. Firstly, the optimal GDP level of the company from export to transnational direct investment is obtained by using the above derivation method, and the optimal tax policy of the host country is deduced. Secondly, we also discuss the critical GDP level in cooperative game and non-cooperative game respectively, and the profit of host government and foreign company. Finally, the paper analyzes the influence of vague parameters and exchange rate changes on the decision making of transnational direct investment in the case of cooperative game and non-cooperative game. In the fourth chapter, assuming the exchange rate change from the mean return process, the above derivation method is used to obtain the optimal GDP level of transnational direct investment, and the effects of ambiguity, exchange rate and return parameters on the firms' transnational direct investment are analyzed. The results show that, compared with the random exchange rate changes, foreign companies' transnational direct investment decisions will be greatly influenced by the host government's intervention, so they will pay more attention to the host country's regulatory policies. Determine the optimal time to enter the host market to achieve greater returns.
【學位授予單位】：安徽工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F812.42

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