本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方政府債務(wù) 流動性風(fēng)險 置換債券 CCA　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2008年為了應(yīng)對全球金融危機對我國經(jīng)濟的沖擊,國家實施了四萬億經(jīng)濟刺激計劃,這雖然緩解了經(jīng)濟的下滑,但政府債務(wù)規(guī)模也隨之劇增�！笆濉睍r期,地方政府不僅面臨經(jīng)濟“三期疊加”的常態(tài),又要應(yīng)對政府債務(wù)的集中兌付,因此,地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險管理面臨嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。雖然我國債務(wù)規(guī)模不斷擴張,但眾多研究表明:債務(wù)規(guī)�？傮w可控,主要存在流動性風(fēng)險,即到期債務(wù)本息面臨無法償還的風(fēng)險。隨著債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險的日益明顯,債務(wù)存在的期限錯配,短期違約既成事實,于此,國家提出置換債券計劃,實施債務(wù)重組。置換債券的發(fā)行既明確了債務(wù)規(guī)模,又便于替換政府存量債務(wù)實現(xiàn)再融資。2015年及2016年國家盡管分別下達了3.2萬億和6萬億的置換債券計劃用于償還到期債務(wù),但流動性風(fēng)險仍然存在。所以,置換債券對債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險的研究具有必要性。本文從理論和實證分析對以云南省置換債券對債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險的影響進行研究。首先,由于以債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險為研究對象,因此文獻的梳理以地方政府債務(wù)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢、債務(wù)規(guī)模、償還能力、化解措施為主;進而對相關(guān)概念界定,并從財政分權(quán)理論、公共產(chǎn)品理論、委托代理理論分析置換債券的實施即公債發(fā)行的理論依據(jù)。其次,根據(jù)置換債券對地方債務(wù)的影響機制進行探究,說明置換債券對債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險的作用機理和可能性延展,維持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和提升社會融資成本等方面探究;同時,對云南省的債務(wù)進行總體規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)分析。再次,利用未定權(quán)益分析方法對債務(wù)置換之后的云南省地方債務(wù)流動性風(fēng)險進行實證研究,依據(jù)云南省審計廳公布的債務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和財政廳發(fā)行的置換債券,通過對其未來風(fēng)險進行分析,估測到地方政府在2017年之后的償債壓力增大,僅利用當前的可償債資金償還債務(wù)較為困難,因此地方債務(wù)的流動性風(fēng)險難以避免。最后,根據(jù)實證分析的結(jié)果,依照債務(wù)規(guī)模、償債資金、債券市場等方面提出對應(yīng)的政策建議:注重經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長,推出相應(yīng)額度的債務(wù)置換計劃,推進債券市場高效發(fā)展,拓寬債務(wù)償債資金來源,提高債券資金使用效率,強化債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警和問責(zé)機制。
[Abstract]:In 2008, in order to cope with the impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy, the country implemented a 4 tillion economic stimulus plan, which alleviated the economic downturn, but the scale of government debt also increased sharply. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, The local government not only faces the normal state of "three phases superposition" of economy, but also has to deal with the centralized payment of government debt. Therefore, local debt risk management faces severe challenge. However, many studies have shown that the debt scale is generally controllable, and there are mainly liquidity risks, that is, the principal and interest risk of maturing debt is facing the risk of non-repayment. As the liquidity risk of debt becomes more and more obvious, the maturity mismatch of debt exists. Short-term default is a fait accompli, so the state has put forward a plan to replace bonds and carry out debt restructuring. The issuance of replacement bonds not only defines the size of the debt, In 2015 and 2016, even though 3.2 tillion and 6 tillion replacement bonds were issued to repay maturing debt, liquidity risks remained. It is necessary to study the liquidity risk of debt by replacement bonds. This paper studies the effect of Yunnan replacement bonds on debt liquidity risk from theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, because of the debt liquidity risk as the research object, Therefore, the literature combs the development situation of local government debt, debt scale, repayment ability, resolution measures, and then defines the relevant concepts, and from the fiscal decentralization theory, public goods theory, The principal-agent theory analyzes the theoretical basis for the issuance of bonds. Secondly, according to the influence mechanism of the replacement bonds on the local debt, the paper explains the mechanism and possibility of the replacement bonds on the liquidity risk of debt. To maintain economic development and raise social financing costs; at the same time, to analyze the overall size and structure of the debt in Yunnan Province. Again, Based on the debt data published by Yunnan Audit Office and the replacement bonds issued by the Department of Finance of Yunnan Province, the paper makes an empirical study on the liquidity risk of local debt in Yunnan Province after debt replacement by using the method of undetermined equity analysis. It is estimated that local governments are under increased debt servicing pressure after 2017, and that it is more difficult to repay their debts only with current repayable funds, thus the liquidity risk of local debt is unavoidable. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, based on the size of the debt, Policy suggestions on debt servicing funds and bond markets are put forward: pay attention to steady economic growth, introduce a corresponding quota debt replacement plan, promote the efficient development of the bond market, and broaden the sources of debt repayment funds. Improve the efficiency of the use of bond funds, strengthen debt risk warning and accountability mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

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