本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方政府債務(wù) 風(fēng)險 壓力測試　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：雖然現(xiàn)行的《預(yù)算法》明確規(guī)定地方政府不得發(fā)行地方政府債券，但在現(xiàn)實中，各級地方政府仍然存在著各種形式的債務(wù)。近年來，地方政府債務(wù)在支持地方經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展等方面發(fā)揮了積極作用，但隨著地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的不斷擴大，其在舉借、使用、償還和管理等方面都出現(xiàn)了一些不容忽視的問題，積累了一定的風(fēng)險，這必將損害地方政府的執(zhí)政能力、加大地方財政金融風(fēng)險，對地方經(jīng)濟社會持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展非常不利。因此，從科學(xué)和長遠發(fā)展的角度考慮，有必要充分了解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險，認識到加強地方政府性債務(wù)管理的重要性和緊迫性，切實加強地方政府債務(wù)日常管理，嚴格防范和化解財政金融風(fēng)險。 本文試圖運用公共財政學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)、計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)等相關(guān)知識，構(gòu)建我國地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險壓力測試框架，通過將每年新增債務(wù)額設(shè)定為當(dāng)年地方投資需求與投資能力之差，進而對地方政府每年的債務(wù)存量和新增債務(wù)進行預(yù)測，在此基礎(chǔ)上計算選取的如政府債務(wù)負擔(dān)率、償債率等地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險壓力測試指標(biāo)在不同的情景設(shè)定下的數(shù)值，并與公認的警戒值進行比較，進而判斷其債務(wù)風(fēng)險狀況。在此框架下，本文結(jié)合湖南省地方政府相關(guān)的財政與債務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)開展地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的動態(tài)實證分析，基于在不同的GDP增長率及不同的政府間事權(quán)格局的壓力測試情景下，，對20132017年湖南省地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險進行預(yù)測。實證分析結(jié)果顯示，在設(shè)定不同壓力測試情景下，預(yù)測年度的湖南省地方政府債務(wù)存在一定的風(fēng)險，但總體來說風(fēng)險是可控的。據(jù)此，文章提出了化解湖南省地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的政策建議，具體包括：轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式，保證地方經(jīng)濟合理增長；完善現(xiàn)行財政體制，健全地方政府投融資體制；加強地方政府債務(wù)管理，構(gòu)建債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警和防范機制等。
[Abstract]:Although the current "Budget Law" clearly stipulates that local governments may not issue local government bonds, in reality, local governments at all levels still have various forms of debt. Local government debt has played an active role in supporting local economic and social development, but with the continuous expansion of local government debt, it is borrowing and using. There are some problems which can not be ignored in the aspects of repayment and management, and some risks have accumulated, which will surely damage the ruling ability of the local government and increase the local financial and financial risks. Therefore, from the perspective of scientific and long-term development, it is necessary to fully understand the local government debt risk. We should recognize the importance and urgency of strengthening the management of local government debt, strengthen the daily management of local government debt, and strictly guard against and resolve the financial and financial risks. This paper attempts to use the relevant knowledge of public finance, statistics, econometrics and other related knowledge to construct the risk testing framework of local government debt in China. By setting the amount of annual new debt as the difference between local investment demand and investment capacity, the annual debt stock and new debt of local governments are forecasted. On this basis, the selected local government debt risk stress test indicators such as government debt burden rate, debt service rate and other local government debt risk test indicators in different scenarios are calculated and compared with the recognized warning values. Then judge its debt risk situation. Under this framework, this paper carries out the dynamic empirical analysis of local government debt risk based on the local government financial and debt data of Hunan Province. Based on the different GDP growth rate and different intergovernmental power situation of the stress test scenarios, this paper forecasts the local government debt risk of Hunan province in 20132017. The empirical analysis results show that. Under different stress test scenarios, there is a certain risk in predicting the local government debt in Hunan province, but overall the risk is controllable. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to resolve the debt risk of local government in Hunan province, including: changing the mode of economic development to ensure the reasonable growth of local economy; Perfecting the current financial system and perfecting the investment and financing system of local governments; Strengthen local government debt management, build debt risk warning and prevention mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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