本文關(guān)鍵詞： 債務(wù)管理 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 數(shù)值模擬 敏感性分析　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2010年以來(lái),隨著地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的高速增長(zhǎng),地方政府債務(wù)率和逾期債務(wù)率也水漲船高。為了解決地方政府債務(wù)高速增長(zhǎng)的問(wèn)題,2015年新預(yù)算法出臺(tái),規(guī)定了地方政府不能從融資平臺(tái)舉借債務(wù),只能通過(guò)發(fā)行債券進(jìn)行融資,且中央政府實(shí)行不救助原則。本文在此背景下,以地方政府債務(wù)管理為出發(fā)點(diǎn),建立債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型研究了地方政府債務(wù)融資問(wèn)題。主要研究成果和結(jié)論如下:第一、針對(duì)現(xiàn)有債務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)模型的局限性,建立了債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)的動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)模型。在政府債務(wù)管理的過(guò)程中,以促進(jìn)政府的健康和可持續(xù)發(fā)展為目標(biāo),通過(guò)債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)的抽象和假設(shè),建立了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方程,對(duì)政府債務(wù)的規(guī)模、債務(wù)率、債券融資進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。通過(guò)建立一個(gè)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,對(duì)政府債務(wù)管理進(jìn)行模擬,對(duì)政府未來(lái)的債務(wù)規(guī)模、債務(wù)率和債務(wù)融資進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),將政府債務(wù)管理中存在的問(wèn)題以債務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)的形式呈現(xiàn)出來(lái)。借助于計(jì)算機(jī)的運(yùn)算能力,在任何一個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)上的任何一個(gè)指標(biāo)的數(shù)值都能被模擬出來(lái),并且可以任意改變初值和參數(shù)來(lái)動(dòng)態(tài)地監(jiān)控地方政府債務(wù)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行情況。第二、以貴州省為例,對(duì)債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),同時(shí)進(jìn)行敏感性分析,通過(guò)分析得出結(jié)論:GDP增長(zhǎng)率和財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)率均對(duì)債務(wù)率有著負(fù)向的影響且較為敏感,長(zhǎng)期債券占比和財(cái)政支出增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)債務(wù)率有著正向的影響但并不敏感。因此,本文的政策含義是,為了防范債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),首要的措施是大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),獲取更多財(cái)政收入。其次的措施是適度減少財(cái)政支出,發(fā)行較多比例的短期債券等。創(chuàng)新之處與應(yīng)用價(jià)值:以往的地方政府債務(wù)管理研究往往運(yùn)用定性的、線性的或者靜態(tài)的方法來(lái)研究,使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法,運(yùn)用定量的,非線性的和動(dòng)態(tài)的方法來(lái)研究地方政府債務(wù)管理,可能從方法層面豐富了已有文獻(xiàn)。此外,此前的研究往往借助于已有的模型和對(duì)已有模型的修改來(lái)研究債務(wù)管理問(wèn)題,因此創(chuàng)建一個(gè)前所未有的債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型也是比較大的創(chuàng)新。地方政府不僅可以通過(guò)債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)地方政府債務(wù)和債務(wù)率的變化趨勢(shì),監(jiān)控債務(wù)率的數(shù)值使之在可以接受的范圍內(nèi),如果模型預(yù)測(cè)的債務(wù)率過(guò)高,政府可能需要考慮采取一些措施來(lái)防范債務(wù)危機(jī)。而且可以通過(guò)改變一些參數(shù)的數(shù)值,得到不同的數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果,來(lái)考察這些參數(shù)的改變對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)率的影響,從而選擇調(diào)控哪些變量來(lái)調(diào)控債務(wù)率,因此債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型有著一定的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Since 2010, with the rapid growth of local government debt, the rate of local government debt and overdue debt is also rising. In order to solve the problem of rapid growth of local government debt. In 2015, the new budget law was issued, which stipulates that local government can not borrow debt from financing platform, only by issuing bonds to finance, and the central government implements the principle of no bailout. Based on the local government debt management, the dynamic model of debt management system is established to study the financing of local government debt. The main research results and conclusions are as follows: first. In view of the limitation of the existing debt forecasting model, the dynamic forecasting model of debt management system is established. In the process of government debt management, the goal is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the government. Through the abstraction and hypothesis of debt management system, the system dynamics equation is established, and the scale of government debt, debt ratio and bond financing are forecasted, and a system dynamics model is established. The paper simulates the government debt management and forecasts the future debt size, debt ratio and debt financing of the government. The problems in government debt management are presented in the form of debt forecasting. With the help of computer computing power, the value of any index at any point in time can be simulated. And can arbitrarily change the initial values and parameters to dynamically monitor the operation of the local government debt system. Secondly, taking Guizhou province as an example, the dynamic prediction model of debt management system is tested for robustness. At the same time, through the sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that both the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of fiscal revenue have a negative impact on the debt rate and are more sensitive. The ratio of long-term bonds and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure have a positive effect on the debt rate, but they are not sensitive. Therefore, the policy implication of this paper is that in order to prevent debt risk, the most important measure is to develop the economy vigorously. The second measure is to reduce fiscal expenditure moderately, issue a large proportion of short-term bonds and so on. Innovation and application value: the past local government debt management studies often use qualitative. Linear or static methods are used, systems dynamics are used, quantitative, nonlinear and dynamic methods are used to study local government debt management. In addition, previous studies often use existing models and modification of existing models to study debt management problems. Therefore, it is a great innovation to create an unprecedented dynamic model of debt management system. Local government can not only predict the changing trend of local government debt and debt ratio through the dynamic model of debt management system. . Monitor the value of the debt rate so that it is within an acceptable range if the model predicts an excessive debt rate. Governments may need to consider measures to prevent debt crises, and different numerical simulations can be obtained by changing the values of some parameters. In order to study the influence of these parameters on local government debt rate and choose which variables to control debt rate, the dynamic model of debt management system has certain application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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