本文關鍵詞： 債務管理 系統動力學 數值模擬 敏感性分析　出處：《貴州財經大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2010年以來,隨著地方政府債務規(guī)模的高速增長,地方政府債務率和逾期債務率也水漲船高。為了解決地方政府債務高速增長的問題,2015年新預算法出臺,規(guī)定了地方政府不能從融資平臺舉借債務,只能通過發(fā)行債券進行融資,且中央政府實行不救助原則。本文在此背景下,以地方政府債務管理為出發(fā)點,建立債務管理系統動力學模型研究了地方政府債務融資問題。主要研究成果和結論如下:第一、針對現有債務預測模型的局限性,建立了債務管理系統的動態(tài)預測模型。在政府債務管理的過程中,以促進政府的健康和可持續(xù)發(fā)展為目標,通過債務管理系統的抽象和假設,建立了系統動力學方程,對政府債務的規(guī)模、債務率、債券融資進行預測。通過建立一個系統動力學模型,對政府債務管理進行模擬,對政府未來的債務規(guī)模、債務率和債務融資進行預測,將政府債務管理中存在的問題以債務預測的形式呈現出來。借助于計算機的運算能力,在任何一個時間點上的任何一個指標的數值都能被模擬出來,并且可以任意改變初值和參數來動態(tài)地監(jiān)控地方政府債務系統的運行情況。第二、以貴州省為例,對債務管理系統動態(tài)預測模型進行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗,同時進行敏感性分析,通過分析得出結論:GDP增長率和財政收入增長率均對債務率有著負向的影響且較為敏感,長期債券占比和財政支出增長率對債務率有著正向的影響但并不敏感。因此,本文的政策含義是,為了防范債務風險,首要的措施是大力發(fā)展經濟,獲取更多財政收入。其次的措施是適度減少財政支出,發(fā)行較多比例的短期債券等。創(chuàng)新之處與應用價值:以往的地方政府債務管理研究往往運用定性的、線性的或者靜態(tài)的方法來研究,使用系統動力學的方法,運用定量的,非線性的和動態(tài)的方法來研究地方政府債務管理,可能從方法層面豐富了已有文獻。此外,此前的研究往往借助于已有的模型和對已有模型的修改來研究債務管理問題,因此創(chuàng)建一個前所未有的債務管理系統動力學模型也是比較大的創(chuàng)新。地方政府不僅可以通過債務管理系統動力學模型來預測地方政府債務和債務率的變化趨勢,監(jiān)控債務率的數值使之在可以接受的范圍內,如果模型預測的債務率過高,政府可能需要考慮采取一些措施來防范債務危機。而且可以通過改變一些參數的數值,得到不同的數值模擬結果,來考察這些參數的改變對地方政府債務率的影響,從而選擇調控哪些變量來調控債務率,因此債務管理系統動力學模型有著一定的應用價值。
[Abstract]:Since 2010, with the rapid growth of local government debt, the rate of local government debt and overdue debt is also rising. In order to solve the problem of rapid growth of local government debt. In 2015, the new budget law was issued, which stipulates that local government can not borrow debt from financing platform, only by issuing bonds to finance, and the central government implements the principle of no bailout. Based on the local government debt management, the dynamic model of debt management system is established to study the financing of local government debt. The main research results and conclusions are as follows: first. In view of the limitation of the existing debt forecasting model, the dynamic forecasting model of debt management system is established. In the process of government debt management, the goal is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the government. Through the abstraction and hypothesis of debt management system, the system dynamics equation is established, and the scale of government debt, debt ratio and bond financing are forecasted, and a system dynamics model is established. The paper simulates the government debt management and forecasts the future debt size, debt ratio and debt financing of the government. The problems in government debt management are presented in the form of debt forecasting. With the help of computer computing power, the value of any index at any point in time can be simulated. And can arbitrarily change the initial values and parameters to dynamically monitor the operation of the local government debt system. Secondly, taking Guizhou province as an example, the dynamic prediction model of debt management system is tested for robustness. At the same time, through the sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that both the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of fiscal revenue have a negative impact on the debt rate and are more sensitive. The ratio of long-term bonds and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure have a positive effect on the debt rate, but they are not sensitive. Therefore, the policy implication of this paper is that in order to prevent debt risk, the most important measure is to develop the economy vigorously. The second measure is to reduce fiscal expenditure moderately, issue a large proportion of short-term bonds and so on. Innovation and application value: the past local government debt management studies often use qualitative. Linear or static methods are used, systems dynamics are used, quantitative, nonlinear and dynamic methods are used to study local government debt management. In addition, previous studies often use existing models and modification of existing models to study debt management problems. Therefore, it is a great innovation to create an unprecedented dynamic model of debt management system. Local government can not only predict the changing trend of local government debt and debt ratio through the dynamic model of debt management system. . Monitor the value of the debt rate so that it is within an acceptable range if the model predicts an excessive debt rate. Governments may need to consider measures to prevent debt crises, and different numerical simulations can be obtained by changing the values of some parameters. In order to study the influence of these parameters on local government debt rate and choose which variables to control debt rate, the dynamic model of debt management system has certain application value.
【學位授予單位】：貴州財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

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