本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)地方政府財(cái)政支出的通貨膨脹效應(yīng)研究　出處：《廈門(mén)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 通貨膨脹 地方政府 支出擴(kuò)張

【摘要】：通貨膨脹對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展以及人民的生活有著非常重要的作用,其形成機(jī)理和預(yù)防對(duì)策一直是學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重點(diǎn)課題。2008年金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),不僅美國(guó)等國(guó)家先后啟動(dòng)了幾輪量化寬松政策,我國(guó)政府也實(shí)施了寬松的貨幣與財(cái)政政策。2009年開(kāi)始,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn),國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比上年增長(zhǎng)8.7%。但同時(shí),居民消費(fèi)指數(shù)也從2009年—2011年出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)上漲,產(chǎn)生了新一輪通貨膨脹的趨勢(shì)。 同時(shí),近年來(lái)我國(guó)地方政府財(cái)政支出呈現(xiàn)出不斷膨脹的趨勢(shì),地方政府支出占本地經(jīng)濟(jì)的份額在過(guò)去十幾年中顯著上升了。為了研究這種地方政府支出的膨脹趨勢(shì)是否具有引發(fā)通貨膨脹的潛在力量,本文結(jié)合我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況,從貨幣因素、投資因素等角度分析了地方政府財(cái)政支出對(duì)通貨膨脹影響的渠道。然后,本文通過(guò)建立面板數(shù)據(jù)向量自回歸模型(PVAR),利用GMM回歸結(jié)果、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解對(duì)地方政府財(cái)政支出擴(kuò)張與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。研究的結(jié)果表明,CPI對(duì)地方政府財(cái)政支出增長(zhǎng)率滯后一期的回歸系數(shù)為正,地方政府的財(cái)政支出確實(shí)會(huì)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)造成影響。從CPI對(duì)地方政府財(cái)政支出增長(zhǎng)率沖擊的反應(yīng)可以看出,地方政府財(cái)政支出增長(zhǎng)率一個(gè)單位標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差大小的正向沖擊對(duì)CPI產(chǎn)生正向的影響,隨后開(kāi)始下降。說(shuō)明地方政府支出對(duì)通貨膨脹的確存在正向的推動(dòng)作用,然而這種影響并不穩(wěn)定。從方差分解結(jié)果可以看出,地方政府公共支出增長(zhǎng)率和全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)率都是CPI的影響因素,但二者對(duì)CPI變動(dòng)的解釋力度都比較小。 從研究結(jié)論來(lái)看,地方政府財(cái)政支出的擴(kuò)張的確會(huì)帶來(lái)通貨膨脹隱患。為了保證經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行和物價(jià)水平的穩(wěn)定,本文分別從整個(gè)國(guó)家的層面和地方政府的層面提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Inflation plays a very important role in the healthy development of our economy and people's life. Its formation mechanism and preventive measures have been the focus of academic research. In 2008, the financial crisis broke out. Not only the United States and other countries have launched several rounds of quantitative easing policy, but our government has also implemented loose monetary and fiscal policies. Since 2009, China's economy has improved. Gross domestic product (GDP) was up 8.7 percent over the previous year. But at the same time, the consumer consumption index rose continuously from 2009 to 2011, resulting in a new round of inflation. At the same time, in recent years, local government fiscal expenditure in China has shown a trend of continuous expansion. The share of local government spending in the local economy has risen significantly over the past decade. Based on the actual situation of our country, this paper analyzes the influence of local government fiscal expenditure on inflation from the point of view of monetary factors, investment factors and so on. Then. In this paper, the panel data vector autoregressive model is established and the GMM regression results are used. The impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to study the relationship between the expansion of local government fiscal expenditure and inflation. The results show that the regression coefficient of CPI for the lag period of local government fiscal expenditure growth rate is positive. Local government fiscal expenditure does have an impact on the consumer price index. It can be seen from the response of CPI to the impact of local government expenditure growth rate. The positive impact of a unit standard deviation on the growth rate of local government fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on CPI and then begins to decline. It shows that local government expenditure does have a positive impact on inflation. However, this effect is not stable. From the variance decomposition results, it can be seen that the growth rate of public expenditure of local government and the growth rate of fixed asset investment of the whole society are the influencing factors of CPI. But both of them explain the change of CPI relatively little. From the conclusion of the study, the expansion of local government fiscal expenditure will indeed bring inflation risks. In order to ensure the smooth operation of the economy and the stability of the price level. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions from the whole national level and the local government level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門(mén)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.5;F812.45

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