【摘要】：隨著國(guó)家對(duì)低空旅游的政策的逐漸開放，發(fā)展低空旅游面臨著前所未有的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)。而如何正確地對(duì)低空旅游項(xiàng)目投資項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行投資評(píng)估又是低空旅游發(fā)展的一個(gè)重要環(huán)節(jié)。由于傳統(tǒng)投資評(píng)估理論在低空旅游投資領(lǐng)域的投資評(píng)估是有先天性缺陷的，它不能利用項(xiàng)目本身?yè)碛械牟淮_定性來(lái)為企業(yè)創(chuàng)造價(jià)值，實(shí)物期權(quán)方法恰恰是因?yàn)槠淠茌^好地評(píng)價(jià)擁有高度不確定性的投資項(xiàng)目，通過(guò)發(fā)揮“化被動(dòng)為主動(dòng)的靈活性”保留了其積極影響并且在很大程度上成功地避免了不確定性帶來(lái)的消極影響，而受到了越來(lái)越廣泛的關(guān)注。 因?yàn)閷?shí)物期權(quán)方法有別于傳統(tǒng)的投資評(píng)估方法，它注重管理柔性和不確定性帶來(lái)的投資價(jià)值，本文詳盡地介紹了實(shí)物期權(quán)法在亞龍通航低空旅游項(xiàng)目中的應(yīng)用過(guò)程，包括確定該項(xiàng)目的實(shí)物期權(quán)特征、選擇與之相匹配的模型，結(jié)合亞龍通航的實(shí)際情況，說(shuō)明實(shí)物期權(quán)的先進(jìn)性，為同行的投資評(píng)估提供借鑒。實(shí)物期權(quán)是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的投資評(píng)估方法取其精華去其糟粕，進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和飛躍。本文通過(guò)對(duì)亞龍通航低空旅游項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定性分析，，得出客流量是決定項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值的主要因素。介紹了本文中需要用到的實(shí)物期權(quán)模型：成長(zhǎng)期權(quán)模型，為準(zhǔn)確確定期權(quán)模型的參數(shù)，在一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)領(lǐng)域建立了期權(quán)定價(jià)模型。 最后通過(guò)亞龍通航低空旅游項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，確定各個(gè)參數(shù)的具體值，使用計(jì)算機(jī)VBA程序語(yǔ)言在EXCEL中加載宏模塊計(jì)算出最后的期權(quán)價(jià)值，并基于計(jì)算出的結(jié)果得出結(jié)論，提出以后使用該方法的建議以及該方法使用中存在的不足，為企業(yè)投資評(píng)估中應(yīng)用實(shí)期權(quán)方法提供更完備的參考依據(jù)，為實(shí)物期權(quán)方法在相似企業(yè)中的應(yīng)用提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the gradual opening of national policy to low-altitude tourism, the development of low-altitude tourism is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. How to correctly evaluate the investment of low-altitude tourism projects is an important link in the development of low-altitude tourism. Because the traditional investment evaluation theory has inherent defects in the field of low-altitude tourism investment, it can not make use of the uncertainty of the project itself to create value for the enterprise. The real options approach is precisely because it can better evaluate investment projects with a high degree of uncertainty. By exerting the "passive to active flexibility", the positive influence is preserved and the negative influence brought by uncertainty is successfully avoided to a great extent, which has attracted more and more attention. Because the real option method is different from the traditional investment evaluation method, it pays attention to the investment value brought by the flexibility and uncertainty of management. This paper introduces the application process of the real option method in the low altitude tourism project of Yalong navigation in detail. Including determining the real option characteristics of the project, selecting the matching model, combining with the actual situation of Yalong navigation, explaining the advanced nature of the real option and providing reference for the peer investment evaluation. Real option is to take the essence of the traditional investment evaluation method to remove its dross, further development and leap. Through qualitative analysis of Yalong navigation low altitude tourism project, it is concluded that passenger flow is the main factor that determines the value of the project. This paper introduces the real option model: the growth option model. In order to accurately determine the parameters of the option model, the option pricing model is established in the general economic evaluation field. Finally, through the actual data of Yalong navigation low-altitude tourism project, the specific value of each parameter is determined, and the final option value is calculated by loading macro module in EXCEL with computer VBA program language, and the conclusion is drawn based on the calculated results. The suggestion of using this method in the future and the shortcomings of the method are put forward to provide a more complete reference basis for the application of real option method in the investment evaluation of enterprises and a reference for the application of real option method in similar enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：延安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F592.7

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