本文選題：Logistic模型　切入點：TALC模型　出處：《旅游學(xué)刊》2017年06期

【摘要】：TALC模型是旅游學(xué)界討論最多的模型之一,在諸多討論的議題中,關(guān)于該模型各階段的劃分和確認(rèn)一直是一個未能解決的難題。文章基于用Logistic模型解決TALC模型各階段定量劃分的目的,在運用微分知識分析Logistic模型數(shù)學(xué)性質(zhì)的基礎(chǔ)上,發(fā)現(xiàn)了該模型有3個時間節(jié)點。然后分析了Logistic模型對TALC模型各階段的定量劃分的適用性,并對美國十大國家公園上百年的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回歸分析,實證了美國十大國家公園的旅游生命周期模式。分析得出:(1)Logistic模型可以很好地擬合TALC模型的前5個階段,即探查-參與階段、發(fā)展階段、鞏固階段、停滯階段;(2)利用Logistic模型求得劃分TALC模型的3個時間節(jié)點((a-1.317)/r,K/(4.732))、(a/r,K/2)、((a+1.317)/r,K/(1.268));(3)美國國家公園的旅游生命周期模式可以分為3類:Ⅰ型—標(biāo)準(zhǔn)型、Ⅱ型—斷崖型、Ⅲ型—跳躍型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)TALC模型各階段可以進(jìn)行定量劃分和確認(rèn),文章得出的3個時間節(jié)點就是一次探索性嘗試。
[Abstract]:TALC model is one of the most discussed models in tourism circles. Among the topics discussed, the division and confirmation of each stage of the model has been a difficult problem to be solved.Based on the purpose of solving the quantitative division of TALC model by using Logistic model and using differential knowledge to analyze the mathematical properties of Logistic model, this paper finds that the model has three time nodes.Then it analyzes the applicability of Logistic model to the quantitative division of each stage of the TALC model, and makes regression analysis on the time series data of the ten largest national parks in the United States for a hundred years, and proves the tourism life cycle model of the ten largest national parks in the United States.It is concluded that the first five stages of the TALC model can be well fitted by the Logistic model, namely, the exploratory stage, the stage of development, the stage of consolidation, the stage of exploration and participation, the stage of development and the stage of consolidation.The Logistic model is used to calculate the three time nodes that divide the TALC model into three types: type 鈪，

本文編號：1688534