本文關(guān)鍵詞： 上海迪士尼 主題公園 市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 開園初期　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國全民休閑時(shí)代的到來,國民休閑旅游時(shí)間和休閑旅游消費(fèi)不斷增加,從而推動(dòng)了中國主題公園產(chǎn)業(yè)的急速擴(kuò)張。但與此同時(shí),主題公園市場的競爭也日益激烈,隨之帶來的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也越來越大。上海迪士尼從開園之前就備受期待,然而面對(duì)復(fù)雜和多元的中國市場環(huán)境,上海迪士尼在開園初期存在諸多市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出了挑戰(zhàn)。本文以開園初期的上海迪士尼為研究對(duì)象,結(jié)合理論分析和實(shí)證分析,通過文獻(xiàn)法、訪談法和問卷調(diào)查法對(duì)上海迪士尼開園初期市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本特征及其影響因素進(jìn)行了研究。本文主要的研究結(jié)論如下,第一,開園初期的上海迪士尼總體存在一定的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈現(xiàn)出多個(gè)維度;被調(diào)查者對(duì)上海迪士尼的期望值較低,他們對(duì)上海迪士尼的容忍度和支持度也不高。第二,運(yùn)用因子分析技術(shù),獲取影響上海迪士尼開園初期市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的六個(gè)因子,包括:投資回報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、游客體驗(yàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會(huì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、客源市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)業(yè)配套風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第三,通過構(gòu)建上海迪士尼開園初期市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)業(yè)配套風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均正向影響投資回報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn);經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正向影響社會(huì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn);產(chǎn)業(yè)配套風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正向影響經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。投資回報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會(huì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都正向影響客源市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn),游客體驗(yàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)負(fù)向影響客源市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn);社會(huì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)營管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)業(yè)配套風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均正向影響游客體驗(yàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。客源市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)支持度有顯著的負(fù)向影響,游客體驗(yàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)支持度有顯著的正向影響。最后,本文就上海迪士尼如何提高市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范與管理能力提出些許建議,以期為國內(nèi)主題公園的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究提供理論支持,促進(jìn)我國旅游項(xiàng)目的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the leisure age in China, the national leisure travel time and leisure tourism consumption are increasing, thus promoting the rapid expansion of China's theme park industry, but at the same time. The competition in the theme park market is becoming more and more intense, and the market risks are increasing. Shanghai Disneyland has been expected since the opening of the park, but in the face of a complex and diverse Chinese market environment. There are many market risks in the initial stage of Shanghai Disneyland, which challenges the sustainable development. This paper takes Shanghai Disney as the research object, combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, through the literature method. The basic characteristics and influencing factors of the initial market risk of Shanghai Disneyland were studied by interview and questionnaire. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. At the beginning of the park, there is a certain market risk in Shanghai Disney, and the market risk presents multiple dimensions. Respondents had low expectations for Shanghai Disney, and their tolerance and support for Shanghai Disney were also low. Second, factor analysis technology was used. Obtain six factors that affect the initial market risk of Shanghai Disney Park, including: investment return risk, tourists experience risk, social environment risk, management risk. Thirdly, by constructing the structural equation model of the initial market risk of Shanghai Disney Park, it is found that both the risk of management and the risk of supporting industry positively affect the risk of return on investment. Management risk positively affects social environment risk; The investment return risk, social environment risk and management risk are all positive to the tourist market risk, and the tourist experience risk has negative influence on the tourist market risk. The social environment risk, the management risk and the industry matching risk all positively influence the tourist experience risk. The tourist market risk has the significant negative influence to the support degree. Tourist experience risk has a significant positive impact on the degree of support. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the ability of market risk prevention and management of Shanghai Disney. In order to provide theoretical support for the market risk research of domestic theme parks and promote the sustainable development of tourism projects in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F719.5

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