發(fā)布時間：2019-07-14 10:32

【摘要】：文章用金融危機四階段周期理論剖析金融危機的傳染機制。通過構(gòu)造金融渠道危機傳染模型及貿(mào)易渠道危機傳染模型,對20國集團國家金融危機隱蔽期、危機爆發(fā)期、危機深化期和危機恢復(fù)期的數(shù)據(jù)進行檢驗,得出結(jié)論:金融渠道具有顯著地周期性危機傳染特質(zhì);貿(mào)易渠道具有次顯著地周期性危機傳染特質(zhì),傳染性變化與金融危機向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟滲透同步;貿(mào)易渠道傳染性周期演進滯后于金融渠道;金融危機恢復(fù)期宏觀經(jīng)濟變量顯著性增強,表明調(diào)節(jié)宏觀經(jīng)濟政策可以降低金融危機的傳染性。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the contagion mechanism of financial crisis with the theory of four-stage cycle of financial crisis. By constructing the financial channel crisis contagion model and the trade channel crisis contagion model, this paper tests the data of the hidden period of the financial crisis, the crisis outbreak period, the crisis deepening period and the crisis recovery period in the Group of 20 countries, and draws the conclusion that the financial channel has the remarkable cyclical crisis contagion characteristic, the trade channel has the sub-significant periodic crisis contagion characteristic, the infectious change synchronizes with the financial crisis infiltrates into the real economy; The evolution of infectious cycle of trade channel lags behind that of financial channel, and the macroeconomic variables increase significantly during the recovery period of financial crisis, which indicates that adjusting macroeconomic policy can reduce the contagion of financial crisis.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與金融學(xué)院;中國人民銀行白銀市中心支行;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金重點項目(09AZD020)
【分類號】：F831.59;F746;F224

【共引文獻】

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