【摘要】：自1994年我國外匯體制改革以來，我國外匯儲備在國際收支雙順差的推動下快速增長，截止2011年底，我國外匯儲備余額高達31811.48億美元。這一方面，提高了我國調(diào)節(jié)國際收支、干預(yù)市場及對外支付的能力；另一方面，外匯儲備的增長給我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來了許多消極影響：外匯儲備增長迫使央行增加基礎(chǔ)貨幣的投放，使得貨幣供給量迅速擴張，進而對貨幣供給結(jié)構(gòu)、貨幣政策的時滯以及貨幣供給的內(nèi)生性產(chǎn)生影響，而且影響到央行的法定存款準備金率和公開市場操作等貨幣政策工具的有效性，給央行實施貨幣政策帶來了一定的難度。因此，研究如何確保外匯儲備規(guī)模適度，實現(xiàn)對外匯儲備的科學(xué)調(diào)控以及分析外匯儲備變動對貨幣政策有效性的影響，從而提高貨幣政策效果具有重要的意義。 本文首先在參考相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上，闡釋了外匯儲備與貨幣政策的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系及影響機理，然后從外匯儲備增長的狀況入手，回顧了外匯體制改革以來我國外匯儲備階段性增長的狀況，通過一些指標的計算得出我國外匯儲備超出適度規(guī)模，并且分析得出了導(dǎo)致我國外匯儲備持續(xù)增長的一些原因：中國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展，多年來國際收支雙順差的推動，人民幣升值預(yù)期以及外匯體制因素。之后是文章的重點部分，從三個方面分析了外匯儲備增長對貨幣政策產(chǎn)生的具體影響，第一，外匯儲備對貨幣政策中介目標（貨幣供給）的影響，第二，影響貨幣政策工具如法定存款準備金率和公開市場操作等的有效性，第三，對貨幣政策最終目標的影響，加大了通脹壓力，導(dǎo)致匯率政策和利率政策的沖突。因此，外匯儲備持續(xù)增長成了影響我國貨幣政策效果的一個主要的因素。 最后，基于以上分析，，提出了相應(yīng)的建議和措施來改善這種狀況，主要有建立外匯平準基金，切斷外匯儲備與貨幣供給的聯(lián)系；放寬匯率波動幅度，協(xié)調(diào)匯率政策和貨幣政策的關(guān)系；改革完善現(xiàn)行的外匯管理體制，分流外匯儲備；創(chuàng)新貨幣政策工具，擴大對沖操作的空間。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of China's foreign exchange system in 1994, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly under the impetus of a double balance of payments surplus. By the end of 2011, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was as high as 3.181148 trillion US dollars. On the one hand, it improves the ability of our country to adjust the balance of payments, interfere with the market and pay for it. On the other hand, the growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought many negative effects to the economic development of our country: the growth of foreign exchange reserves forces the central bank to increase the investment of basic currency, which makes the money supply expand rapidly, which in turn has an impact on the structure of money supply, the time lag of monetary policy and the endogeny of money supply, and also affects the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments such as Statutory deposit reserve ratio and open market operation of the central bank. It brings some difficulty to the central bank in implementing monetary policy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study how to ensure the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves, to realize the scientific regulation and control of foreign exchange reserves and to analyze the influence of foreign exchange reserve changes on the effectiveness of monetary policy, so as to improve the effect of monetary policy. First of all, on the basis of referring to the relevant theories, this paper explains the internal relationship and influence mechanism between foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy, then starts with the growth of foreign exchange reserves, reviews the situation of phased growth of foreign exchange reserves in China since the reform of foreign exchange system, and concludes that China's foreign exchange reserves exceed the appropriate scale through the calculation of some indicators. Some reasons for the sustained growth of China's foreign exchange reserves are obtained: the rapid development of China's economy, the promotion of the double surplus of the balance of payments over the years, the expectation of RMB appreciation and the factors of foreign exchange system. Then is the key part of the article, from three aspects to analyze the specific impact of foreign exchange reserve growth on monetary policy, first, the impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary policy intermediary objectives (money supply), second, affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy tools such as Statutory deposit reserve ratio and open market operations, third, the impact on the ultimate goal of monetary policy, increasing inflationary pressure. Lead to the conflict between exchange rate policy and interest rate policy. Therefore, the sustained growth of foreign exchange reserves has become a major factor affecting the effect of monetary policy in China. Finally, based on the above analysis, the corresponding suggestions and measures are put forward to improve this situation, such as the establishment of foreign exchange leveling fund, cutting off the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and money supply, relaxing the fluctuation range of exchange rate, coordinating the relationship between exchange rate policy and monetary policy, reforming and perfecting the current foreign exchange management system, diverting foreign exchange reserves, innovating monetary policy tools and expanding the space for hedge operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.0

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 鐘彌嘉;;我國外匯儲備增長對貨幣政策影響的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2011年07期

2 周浩;朱啟貴;;外匯儲備快速增加與物價指數(shù)變動[J];財經(jīng)科學(xué);2006年06期

3 宿玉海;張雪瑩;;對我國外匯儲備超適度規(guī)模的實證分析——基于改進的阿格沃爾模型[J];財經(jīng)科學(xué);2011年10期

4 郭洪仙,李曉峰;我國外匯儲備增長原因及變動趨勢研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;2004年05期

5 何慧剛;;中國外匯沖銷干預(yù)和貨幣政策獨立性研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;2007年11期

6 田靜;;淺析我國外匯儲備過快增長對基礎(chǔ)貨幣的影響[J];東方企業(yè)文化;2011年08期

7 張寧;;外匯儲備與流動性過剩危機[J];對外經(jīng)貿(mào)實務(wù);2008年01期

8 李揚;余維彬;曾剛;;經(jīng)濟全球化背景下的中國外匯儲備管理體制改革[J];國際金融研究;2007年04期

9 田華臣 ,張宗成;析我國外匯占款對沖策略[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2005年01期

10 鄭寶銀;;國際收支雙順差下的經(jīng)濟政策選擇與調(diào)整[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2006年12期

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前1條

1 張濤;[N];經(jīng)濟觀察報;2008年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 于小U

本文編號：2511762