【摘要】：中國(guó)與東盟正式展開對(duì)話20年以來,特別是2010年中國(guó)—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建成以后,作為中國(guó)—東盟合作“短板”的中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資迅速發(fā)展起來。如今,東盟已成為中國(guó)企業(yè)海外投資的最大市場(chǎng)。①隨著中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大、投資領(lǐng)域的拓展,由此帶來的各種經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)也逐漸顯現(xiàn),尤其是對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)所產(chǎn)生的效應(yīng),如經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)、進(jìn)出口效應(yīng)以及更深層次的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)等都日趨顯著。然而,由于中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資的起步晚、數(shù)額小,因此對(duì)這一領(lǐng)域的研究相對(duì)較少,而關(guān)于中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的研究就更少。 正是在這種背景下,本文采用定性分析與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)相結(jié)合的方法,分別對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資在國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化以及技術(shù)進(jìn)步方面的效應(yīng)展開比較深入和全面的剖析。特別是引入技術(shù)差距來分析中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)：首先,提出三種假設(shè),即技術(shù)差距不影響逆向技術(shù)外溢、技術(shù)差距與逆向技術(shù)外溢呈線性關(guān)系、技術(shù)差距與逆向技術(shù)外溢呈非線性關(guān)系。其次,在每一個(gè)假設(shè)條件下構(gòu)建模型。最后,通過對(duì)所有模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,對(duì)比擬合度,從而確定最合理、最符合實(shí)際的模型,并對(duì)分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行解釋。在對(duì)四方面經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)分析、檢驗(yàn)之后,得出以下結(jié)論：中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有一定的拉動(dòng)作用,但作用不明顯；中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資促進(jìn)了雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展；中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資推進(jìn)了國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級(jí)；由于技術(shù)差距的存在在一定程度上抑制了中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資所產(chǎn)生的逆向技術(shù)外溢,因而對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)不顯著。 最后,根據(jù)研究的結(jié)果,為政府、商會(huì)和企業(yè)提出了相關(guān)策略建議：政府在投資活動(dòng)中應(yīng)起到政策引導(dǎo)和資金扶持的作用、商會(huì)要做好橋梁、紐帶的作用、企業(yè)要依據(jù)自身的情況選擇適合的產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)位進(jìn)行直接投資,從而進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Since the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN in the past 20 years, especially after the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, China's direct investment in ASEAN, as a "deficiency" of China-ASEAN cooperation, has developed rapidly. Nowadays, ASEAN has become the largest market for overseas investment by Chinese enterprises. 1 with the expansion of the scale of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN and the expansion of investment fields, various economic effects have gradually emerged, especially on the domestic economy, such as economic growth effect, import and export effect, deeper industrial structure effect, technological progress effect and so on. However, due to the late start and small amount of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN, there are relatively few studies in this field, and even less on the domestic economic effects of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN. It is in this context that this paper uses the method of qualitative analysis and empirical test to analyze the effects of China's direct investment in ASEAN on domestic economic growth, import and export trade, industrial structure optimization and technological progress. In particular, the technology gap is introduced to analyze the effect of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN on domestic technological progress. Firstly, three assumptions are put forward, that is, the technology gap does not affect the reverse technology spillover, the technology gap and reverse technology spillover are linear, and the technology gap and reverse technology spillover are nonlinear. Secondly, the model is built under each assumption. Finally, through the empirical analysis of all the models, the degree of analogy is determined, and the most reasonable and realistic model is determined, and the results of the analysis are explained. After analyzing the economic effects of four aspects, this paper draws the following conclusions: China's direct investment in ASEAN has a certain pulling effect on domestic economic growth, but its effect is not obvious; China's direct investment in ASEAN has promoted the development of bilateral trade; China's direct investment in ASEAN has promoted the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure; To a certain extent, the existence of technology gap has restrained the reverse technology spillover caused by China's direct investment in ASEAN, so the effect on domestic technological progress is not significant. Finally, according to the results of the study, this paper puts forward some relevant strategic suggestions for the government, chamber of commerce and enterprises: the government should play the role of policy guidance and financial support in the investment activities, the chamber of commerce should do a good job as a bridge and link, and enterprises should choose the appropriate industry and location for direct investment according to their own situation, so as to further give full play to the domestic economic effect of China's direct investment in ASEAN.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832.6

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