【摘要】：金融業(yè)在國家經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中處于核心位置，，同時金融業(yè)聚集了經(jīng)濟運行中的大部分風險。如果對于金融風險不加以控制、任其發(fā)展，在其積累到一定水平時就會演變成金融危機。近幾十年來，世界各國頻繁爆發(fā)的金融危機，給危機爆發(fā)國甚至全球經(jīng)濟都帶來了沉重的打擊，人們也深刻體會到了金融危機的危害性。 本文首先對金融風險預警理論的發(fā)展歷史進行了簡單的回顧，對國內(nèi)外學者的研究成果進行了簡單的總結(jié)。其次，對金融風險、金融危機及金融預警的相關(guān)概念進行了定義，并以金融脆弱性為出發(fā)點對建立金融風險預警系統(tǒng)的合理性進行了理論闡述并對國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有的金融風險預警模型進行了論述和評論。在預警指標選取方面，本文選取了代表我國宏觀金融風險的12個指標，并且根據(jù)我國金融市場的特點選取了單純代表金融市場的15個純金融指標。在實證部分，本文選擇利用VaR方法構(gòu)建金融風險預警信號燈系統(tǒng)，以此來顯示我國金融風險狀況，在VaR值的計算上選擇了GARCH模型。最后，根據(jù)實證得出的結(jié)論，本文對建立我國金融風險預警系統(tǒng)提出了幾點建議。 回顧全球范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的金融危機，基本上都具有一定的突發(fā)性，這種特點使得危機發(fā)生國無法及時的采取防范措施，最終導致危機擴大化。金融風險預警可以對風險進行預測、控制，進而將發(fā)生危機的可能性降到最低點。因此，金融風險預警對于保障國家經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定、健康發(fā)展具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:The financial industry is at the core of the national economic system, and the financial industry aggregates most of the risks in the economic operation. If the financial risk is not controlled and its development is allowed, it will become a financial crisis when it accumulates to a certain level. In recent decades, the frequent financial crisis in the world has brought a heavy blow to the crisis countries and even the global economy, and people have also deeply realized the harmfulness of the financial crisis. In this paper, the development history of financial risk early warning theory is briefly reviewed, and the research results of scholars at home and abroad are briefly summarized. Secondly, the related concepts of financial risk, financial crisis and financial early warning are defined, and the rationality of establishing financial risk early warning system is theoretically expounded based on financial vulnerability, and the existing financial risk early warning models at home and abroad are discussed and commented. In the aspect of early warning index selection, this paper selects 12 indexes that represent the macro financial risk of our country, and selects 15 pure financial indexes which simply represent the financial market according to the characteristics of our financial market. In the empirical part, this paper chooses the VaR method to construct the financial risk early warning signal lamp system to show the financial risk situation in our country, and selects the GARCH model to calculate the VaR value. Finally, according to the empirical conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the establishment of financial risk early warning system in China. Looking back on the global financial crisis, basically have a certain sudden, this characteristic makes the crisis countries can not take timely preventive measures, and ultimately lead to the expansion of the crisis. Financial risk early warning can predict and control the risk, and then reduce the possibility of crisis to the lowest point. Therefore, financial risk early warning is of great significance to ensure the stability and healthy development of the national economy.
【學位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F832

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前1條

1 郭棟;基于動態(tài)Logit模型的中國系統(tǒng)性金融危機預警研究[D];吉林大學;2013年

本文編號：2501981