【摘要】：本文通過(guò)偏相關(guān)分析的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,對(duì)通脹預(yù)期與真實(shí)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了數(shù)量分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),通脹預(yù)期與消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)存在相互的正向作用。通脹預(yù)期的形成具有短期特征,對(duì)未來(lái)物價(jià)的判斷更多地依賴最近時(shí)段的環(huán)比物價(jià)水平,而通脹預(yù)期對(duì)后期物價(jià)指數(shù)特別是同比物價(jià)指數(shù)具有長(zhǎng)期影響。以房屋和股票為代表的環(huán)比資產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的形成具有正向作用,但通脹預(yù)期對(duì)后期資產(chǎn)價(jià)格走勢(shì)不存在反作用。
[Abstract]:Through the statistical method of partial correlation analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between inflation expectations and real prices. The study found that inflation expectations and consumer price indices have a positive effect on each other. The formation of inflation expectations has short-term characteristics, and the judgment of future prices depends more on the recent month-on-month price levels, while inflation expectations have a long-term impact on the late price index, especially the year-on-year price index. The month-on-month asset price change represented by housing and stocks has a positive effect on the formation of inflation expectations, but inflation expectations have no negative effect on the trend of asset prices in the later period.
【作者單位】： 上海立信會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;中國(guó)人民銀行上海總部;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“全球流動(dòng)性沖擊對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響與政策選擇”(編號(hào)10YJC790376) 上海市教委科研創(chuàng)新重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):11ZS185),上海市教委重點(diǎn)學(xué)科項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):J51702)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.5;F726
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本文編號(hào)：2501115