【摘要】：國際貨幣秩序(International Monetary Order)是國際經濟金融交易過程中最根本的制度安排,包括通貨制度、儲備結算制度與匯率制度三個方面。歷史上國際貨幣秩序的演化都伴隨著宏觀經濟的動蕩,尤其是近5年來,從美國次貸危機到歐洲債務危機,國際貨幣秩序對世界經濟結構影響巨大。但是,現有文獻較多研究既定國際貨幣秩序下各個宏觀變量的對應關系,缺少對國際貨幣秩序演化的全方位把握。尤其對于下列問題缺乏系統研究：國際貨幣秩序演化的規(guī)律究竟如何?是否符合斯密“看不見的手”理論?國際貨幣秩序演化各條路徑狀態(tài)的結構、特點及達成條件是什么?中國在國際貨幣秩序演化中的角色又如何? 本文試圖從制度演化的角度對上述問題進行回答。本文用一個功能—反饋的制度分析框架總結歷史各個階段的演化要點,提出具有較強解釋力的國際貨幣秩序演化規(guī)律：在國家差異性和政府短期利益嵌入性作用下的國際貨幣秩序制度系統難以構成平衡的功能—反饋系統,經濟金融危機是國際貨幣秩序演化的階段性表現形式,短期利益嵌入性作用下的國際貨幣秩序并不符合斯密“看不見的手”的理論,只有短期利益嵌入性行為改變后的國際貨幣秩序才有可能是平衡的功能—反饋系統。國際貨幣秩序演化有三種路徑狀態(tài)：繼續(xù)沿用一國主權貨幣充當通貨制度與儲備結算制度的主權貨幣嵌入狀態(tài)；以超主權貨幣充當通貨制度與儲備結算制度的超主權貨幣狀態(tài)；主權貨幣與超主權貨幣混搭的混合貨幣狀態(tài)。 主權貨幣嵌入狀態(tài)下,國際貨幣秩序面臨冗余問題,經濟最強國的貨幣角色在國內主權貨幣與國際儲備貨幣之間往往難以協調,進而形成世界經濟失衡。本文通過中心—外圍模型、計量檢驗與中美經濟互動案例剖析了當前美元本位制下,美國的經常賬戶逆差與資本賬戶順差形成了總量平衡,但分量失衡的結構性問題。中美兩國實現了各自短期經濟利益的同時積累了巨大的風險。 超主權貨幣狀態(tài)存在自由競爭貨幣與最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)兩種方式。本文考察了兩種模式在機制設計上的優(yōu)劣,并結合美國區(qū)域貨幣制度與歐洲債務危機進行案例研究。結果表明,自由貨幣競爭與最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)對于控制主權貨幣超量發(fā)行帶來的通貨膨脹進而以價格穩(wěn)定促進經濟發(fā)展具有較好作用,但國家差異性、政府角色矛盾等因素使得運行條件苛刻,超主權貨幣狀態(tài)下的國際貨幣秩序可能更為混亂。 混合貨幣狀態(tài)下,本文借鑒黃金與特別提款權的優(yōu)點,以解決冗余問題為目的,在保留各國主權貨幣的基礎上,創(chuàng)造性地提出了世元(World Currency)方案：世元作為經常賬戶的清算貨幣,資本和金融賬戶流通仍使用各國主權貨幣,世元匯價體系則由各國貨幣的匯價換算而得,定期調整權重。世元體系的側重點是在保留各國主權貨幣的基礎上,糾正主權國家對國際貨幣秩序的短期利益嵌入,使得國際貨幣秩序達成平衡的功能—反饋機制。 本文對三種路徑狀態(tài)進行了比較研究：超主權貨幣狀態(tài)對于政府短期利益嵌入性的改變最為徹底,達成條件最為苛刻；混合貨幣狀態(tài)是個過渡態(tài)；主權貨幣嵌入狀態(tài)則是最容易達成的國際貨幣秩序演化方向。只要政府強化對于自身短期利益的嵌入,超主權貨幣狀態(tài)和混合貨幣狀態(tài)都會退回到主權貨幣嵌入狀態(tài),這與國際貨幣秩序演化的主要規(guī)律也是一致的。 針對國際貨幣秩序演化的三種路徑狀態(tài),中國有著不同的角色類型。盡力爭取以世元方案為代表的混合貨幣狀態(tài)的國際貨幣秩序應是中國追求的目標。但在主權貨幣嵌入狀態(tài)構成演化主基調的情況下,中國只能通過尋求包括人民幣在內的多種主權貨幣平等充當儲備貨幣來緩解美元本位制的不利影響。無論哪種狀態(tài),中國都需要匯率形成機制和資本賬戶開放的進一步改革使人民幣走向國際。 本研究的最主要創(chuàng)新點體現在：(1)首次詳盡系統研究了國際貨幣秩序演化的三種路徑狀態(tài),結合中美經濟互動、美國自由銀行制度、歐洲債務危機等案例對每種狀態(tài)的結構、特點以及達成條件進行全面分析,并對各個狀態(tài)做了比較研究；(2)在混合貨幣狀態(tài)中創(chuàng)造性地提出了國際貨幣秩序的世元方案,世元方案在保留各國主權貨幣的基礎上,通過經常賬戶與資本金融賬戶使用幣種的分離來改變政府利用主權貨幣的利益嵌入,從而使得國際貨幣秩序發(fā)揮平衡作用；(3)提出了一個全新且解釋力很強的國際貨幣秩序演化規(guī)律：由差異性和嵌入性造成了主權貨幣成為國際貨幣秩序中通貨制度和儲備結算制度的主要選項,進而使得國際貨幣秩序難以達到平衡的功能—反饋系統,而斯密“看不見的手”的機制在國際貨幣秩序領域具有較大的限制性。
[Abstract]:International Monetary Order is the most fundamental institutional arrangement in the process of international economic financial transactions, including the currency system, the reserve settlement system and the exchange rate system. The evolution of the international monetary order in history is accompanied by the turbulence of the macro-economy, especially in the past five years, from the American subprime crisis to the European debt crisis, the international monetary order has a great impact on the world's economic structure. However, there are more studies on the corresponding relation between the macro variables under the established international monetary order and the lack of an all-round grasp of the evolution of the international monetary order. In particular, there is a lack of systematic research on the following problems: how is the law of international monetary order evolution? Is it in line with the Smith "invisible hand" theory? What is the structure, characteristics and conditions of the international monetary order evolution of each path state? How is China's role in the evolution of international monetary order? This paper attempts to answer the above questions from the angle of the evolution of the system In this paper, a functional feedback system is used to analyze the evolution of the various stages of the history, and the law of the evolution of the international monetary order with strong explanatory power is put forward. The system of international monetary order under the influence of the difference of the country and the short-term interests of the government is hard to form a balanced function and feedback system, and the economic and financial crisis is the stage expression of the evolution of the international monetary order. The international monetary order under the effect of short-term benefit is not in line with the theory of Smith's "invisible hand". Only the international monetary order after the change of the short-term benefit is likely to be the balanced function and feedback system. The evolution of the international monetary order has three path states: to continue to use the sovereign currency of a country to act as the sovereign currency embedded state of the currency system and the reserve settlement system; to act as the super-sovereign currency of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the super-sovereign currency ; the mixed currency status of the sovereign currency and the super-sovereign currency In the state of the embedded sovereign currency, the international monetary order is confronted with the problem of redundancy, and the monetary role of the most powerful in the economy is often difficult to coordinate between the domestic sovereign currency and the international reserve currency, thus forming the world economic loss In this paper, through the analysis of the current dollar standard, the current account deficit of the United States and the surplus of the capital account form the balance of the total amount, but the structural question of the imbalance of the components is analyzed by the central and peripheral model, the measurement test and the Sino-US economic interaction case. The two countries have realized their respective short-term economic interests and accumulated great wind Insurance. There are two kinds of free competitive currency and the optimal currency area in the state of over-sovereignty money. In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of the two modes in the mechanism design are investigated, and the case of the regional monetary system in the United States and the European debt crisis are discussed. The results show that the free-currency competition and the optimal currency area have a better effect on the control of the inflation of the over-issuance of the sovereign currency, which has a good effect on the price stability and the economic development, but the factors such as the national difference and the government role conflict make the operating conditions The international monetary order in the state of the harsh and super-sovereign currency may be more In the state of mixed currency, this paper uses the advantages of gold and special drawing rights to solve the problem of redundancy. On the basis of retaining the sovereign currency of each country, the World Currency scheme is creatively put forward. The circulation of the monetary, capital and financial accounts is still in use by the sovereign currency of each country, and the exchange rate system of the world is obtained by the conversion of the exchange rate of the national currency and is regularly adjusted. The focus of the system is to correct the short-term interests of the sovereign state to the international monetary order based on the retention of the sovereign currency of all countries, so that the international monetary order has a balanced function. In this paper, three path states are compared and studied: the state of the super-sovereign currency is the most complete and the condition is most severe for the change of the short-term interest of the government, and the state of the mixed currency is the state of the mixed currency. A transitional state; an embedded state of a sovereign currency is the most easily achieved international monetary order. The direction of evolution. As long as the government strengthens the embedding of its short-term interests, the state of over-sovereignty money and the state of mixed currency will be returned to the embedded state of the sovereign currency, which is the main law of the evolution of the international monetary order. It is consistent. China is different for the three path states of the evolution of the international monetary order The role type. The international monetary order to strive for a mixed-currency state represented by the World Programme should be China In the case of the main tone of the evolution of the embedded state of the sovereign currency, China can only alleviate the dollar-based system by seeking to act as a reserve currency for a variety of sovereign currencies, including the RMB. No matter which state, China needs further reform of the exchange rate forming mechanism and the capital account opening to make the people The most important innovation point of this study is as follows: (1) The first detailed system has studied the three path states of the international monetary order evolution, combined with the Sino-US economic interaction, the American free banking system, the European debt crisis, etc. The structure, characteristics and conditions of the state are analyzed in a comprehensive way, and the states are compared and studied. (2) In the state of mixed currency, the international monetary order is creatively put forward. On the basis of the currency, the exchange of the currency between the regular account and the capital financial account is used to change the interest of the government to use the sovereign currency, thus making the international monetary order play a balanced role; and (3) a brand-new and strong international currency is put forward The law of order evolution: the difference and the embeddedness cause the sovereign currency to become the main option of the currency system and the reserve settlement system in the international monetary order, thus making the international monetary order difficult to achieve the balanced work. In the field of international monetary order, the mechanism of the Smith "invisible hand" has the advantages of being able to feedback the feedback system.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F821

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 苑斯秀;資本項目開放度對貨幣國際化影響的實證分析[D];吉林大學;2014年

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本文編號：2500452