近代中國白銀購買力的變動及影響（1800-1935）
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-07 16:49
【摘要】：中國銀產(chǎn)稀少，秦漢以金為上幣，銅為下幣，至東漢巨量黃金突然“消失”，宋元兩代有所發(fā)展的紙幣至明代因持續(xù)貶值而失敗。但社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展需要便于大額交易及遠(yuǎn)程攜帶的貨幣，，在國際貿(mào)易中，受國外影響，中國開始了以銀為貨幣的歷程。中國近代白銀貨幣有其顯著的外部供給性，這體現(xiàn)在三個方面：一是白銀的生產(chǎn)主要在美洲，并受美英資本控制；二是世界白銀定價權(quán)掌握在倫敦、紐約經(jīng)紀(jì)商手中，并受美英印等國政府影響；三是中國的白銀輸出入由外商或外國銀行控制。由此造成中國銀本位制度建立進(jìn)程緩慢，并且非常脆弱，廢兩改元后確立的銀本位制度僅僅存在了2年半的時間。 由于白銀貨幣的外部供給性，近代中國白銀購買力與世界白銀購買力密切相關(guān)，其相關(guān)系數(shù)（1800-1935年）達(dá)0.92。世界銀貴（白銀購買力上升或銀價上漲）時，中國白銀外流，中國近代的幾次白銀外流均發(fā)生在銀價上漲（或白銀購買力上升）超過10%的時期。近代中國總體及大多數(shù)年份的白銀、貿(mào)易雙入超的奇特現(xiàn)象即源于白銀貨幣的外部供給性。 數(shù)據(jù)分析顯示，19世紀(jì)上半葉中國的銀錢比價上漲與白銀購買力上升密切相關(guān)，1801-1845年間兩序列相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)0.95，屬于高度正相關(guān)，誤差修正項系數(shù)為-0.884529，說明兩個序列在短期內(nèi)偏離長期穩(wěn)定趨勢后有很強的回調(diào)力量。這一時期中國錢計物價在較小的范圍內(nèi)變動，中國白銀購買力的上升是世界白銀購買力上升的區(qū)域表現(xiàn)，因此19世紀(jì)上半葉中國銀錢比價上漲的長期變動原因是銀貴，而非錢賤。 中國古代的賦稅制度經(jīng)歷了從人丁向田畝、資產(chǎn)過渡；由勞役、實物地租到貨幣地租的轉(zhuǎn)變過程。農(nóng)業(yè)社會的實物稅是以農(nóng)民所得為基礎(chǔ)計算征收的，并且通過荒政等制度安排調(diào)節(jié)征收數(shù)量。清代以貨幣稅賦為主，但未認(rèn)識到白銀購買力變動對農(nóng)民所得及稅負(fù)的影響，也沒有相應(yīng)的制度設(shè)計。嘉道年間兩次白銀購買力的大幅上升，田賦定額不變，加重了農(nóng)民負(fù)擔(dān)，引發(fā)了兩次農(nóng)民起義。清末白銀購買力下降，田賦總額增加低于銀價變動幅度，農(nóng)民田賦負(fù)擔(dān)并未加重。
[Abstract]:China's silver production is scarce, Qin and Han dynasties with gold as the upper coin, copper as the lower coin, to the Eastern Han Dynasty, a large amount of gold suddenly "disappeared", Song and Yuan dynasties developed banknotes to the Ming Dynasty due to continued depreciation and failure. However, the development of social economy needs to facilitate large transactions and remote carrying of currency. In international trade, under the influence of foreign countries, China has begun the process of taking silver as the currency. Silver money in modern China has its remarkable external supply, which is reflected in three aspects: first, the production of silver is mainly in America and controlled by the capital of the United States and Britain; Second, the world silver pricing power is in the hands of London and New York brokers, and is influenced by the governments of the United States, Britain, India and other countries. Third, China's silver imports and exports are controlled by foreign or foreign banks. As a result, the process of establishing the silver standard system in China is slow and very fragile. The silver standard system established after the abolition of the two yuan changes has only existed for two and a half years. Due to the external supply of silver money, the purchasing power of silver in modern China is closely related to the purchasing power of silver in the world, and its correlation coefficient (1800-1935) is 0.92. When silver is expensive in the world (silver purchasing power or silver prices rise), Chinese silver outflows, and several silver outflows in modern China all occurred during periods when silver prices rose (or silver purchasing power rose) by more than 10%. The strange phenomenon of silver in modern China and in most years stems from the external supply of silver money. The data analysis shows that the increase of silver specific price in China in the first half of the 19th century is closely related to the increase of silver purchasing power. The correlation coefficient of the two sequences reached 0.95 in 1801 / 1845, which belongs to a highly positive correlation, and the error correction coefficient is-0.884529. It shows that the two sequences have a strong callback force after deviating from the long-term stable trend in the short term. During this period, the price of Chinese money changed in a relatively small range, and the increase in the purchasing power of Chinese silver was the regional performance of the increase in the purchasing power of silver in the world. Therefore, the reason for the long-term change of the increase in the price of Chinese silver in the first half of the 19th century was that silver was expensive. Not cheap money. In ancient China, the tax system experienced the transition from man to mu, assets, and from labor, physical rent to monetary rent. The real tax in agricultural society is calculated on the basis of farmers' income, and the amount of collection is adjusted through institutional arrangements such as desolation. In Qing Dynasty, monetary tax was the main factor, but the influence of silver purchasing power change on farmers' income and tax burden was not realized, and there was no corresponding system design. During the Jiadao year, the purchasing power of silver increased sharply, and the quota of Tian Fu remained unchanged, which increased the burden on farmers and triggered two peasant uprisings. In the late Qing Dynasty, the purchasing power of silver decreased, the total increase of land tax was lower than that of silver price, and the burden of farmers' land tax was not increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.9
本文編號：2494942
[Abstract]:China's silver production is scarce, Qin and Han dynasties with gold as the upper coin, copper as the lower coin, to the Eastern Han Dynasty, a large amount of gold suddenly "disappeared", Song and Yuan dynasties developed banknotes to the Ming Dynasty due to continued depreciation and failure. However, the development of social economy needs to facilitate large transactions and remote carrying of currency. In international trade, under the influence of foreign countries, China has begun the process of taking silver as the currency. Silver money in modern China has its remarkable external supply, which is reflected in three aspects: first, the production of silver is mainly in America and controlled by the capital of the United States and Britain; Second, the world silver pricing power is in the hands of London and New York brokers, and is influenced by the governments of the United States, Britain, India and other countries. Third, China's silver imports and exports are controlled by foreign or foreign banks. As a result, the process of establishing the silver standard system in China is slow and very fragile. The silver standard system established after the abolition of the two yuan changes has only existed for two and a half years. Due to the external supply of silver money, the purchasing power of silver in modern China is closely related to the purchasing power of silver in the world, and its correlation coefficient (1800-1935) is 0.92. When silver is expensive in the world (silver purchasing power or silver prices rise), Chinese silver outflows, and several silver outflows in modern China all occurred during periods when silver prices rose (or silver purchasing power rose) by more than 10%. The strange phenomenon of silver in modern China and in most years stems from the external supply of silver money. The data analysis shows that the increase of silver specific price in China in the first half of the 19th century is closely related to the increase of silver purchasing power. The correlation coefficient of the two sequences reached 0.95 in 1801 / 1845, which belongs to a highly positive correlation, and the error correction coefficient is-0.884529. It shows that the two sequences have a strong callback force after deviating from the long-term stable trend in the short term. During this period, the price of Chinese money changed in a relatively small range, and the increase in the purchasing power of Chinese silver was the regional performance of the increase in the purchasing power of silver in the world. Therefore, the reason for the long-term change of the increase in the price of Chinese silver in the first half of the 19th century was that silver was expensive. Not cheap money. In ancient China, the tax system experienced the transition from man to mu, assets, and from labor, physical rent to monetary rent. The real tax in agricultural society is calculated on the basis of farmers' income, and the amount of collection is adjusted through institutional arrangements such as desolation. In Qing Dynasty, monetary tax was the main factor, but the influence of silver purchasing power change on farmers' income and tax burden was not realized, and there was no corresponding system design. During the Jiadao year, the purchasing power of silver increased sharply, and the quota of Tian Fu remained unchanged, which increased the burden on farmers and triggered two peasant uprisings. In the late Qing Dynasty, the purchasing power of silver decreased, the total increase of land tax was lower than that of silver price, and the burden of farmers' land tax was not increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.9
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